PA-01: Internal Poll Puts Ehasz In Range of Fitzpatrick
Campaigns reveal dueling internal polls in contentious PA-01 contest
September 13, 2024
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Campaigns reveal dueling internal polls in contentious PA-01 contest
Incumbent Republican shows poll with 14-point lead over challenger
Republican compiles support from commerce, law enforcement, gun control advocates and manufacturing groups
Democratic challenger highlights Army experience and opponent’s anti-abortion record
Democrat Ashley Ehasz within MOE vs. GOP incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick in Bucks/Montgomery County race.
Does more information on a candidate’s stance on reproductive rights change voters’ opinions?
Campaign equips candidates with organizational and fundraising support in competitive races
Challenger to Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick for GOP nomination has discrepancies in resume and in statements
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick faces a challenger in Mark Houck in the GOP primary
Complaint says campaign in violation of the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 and FEC regulations
One released internal poll deserves another in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District.
Days after Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s campaign unveiled a survey showing the Republican incumbent up by double digits, his Democratic challenger Ashley Ehasz countered with numbers showing her down by just five points, 50-45%.
The poll was conducted by Upswing, a Democratic research and strategy firm.
Ehasz, a veteran and former Apache helicopter pilot, has held steady in support since a June survey from the same group showed her down by two points, 47-45%.
Fitzpatrick’s internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies (POS) gave the three-term incumbent a 14-point advantage (54-40%).
Upswing’s research, though, found that after informing respondents about Fitzpatrick’s claims of independence versus Ehasz’s background, as well as the Republican’s “support for a nationwide abortion ban,” support shifted toward the challenger, 51-44%.
“PA-01 is an overwhelmingly pro-choice district currently represented by the overwhelmingly anti-choice Brian Fitzpatrick,” said Victoria Casarrubbias, campaign spokesperson. “Ashley believes that reproductive decisions should be made between a woman and her doctor, rather than politicians, and this poll shows that Bucks and Montgomery County voters vehemently agree. The pathway to victory for Ashley in November is clear: when voters learn the truth that Brian voted for a national abortion ban that would overturn Pennsylvania state law, they pull their support from the incumbent and choose Ashley by 7 points.”
In 2017, Fitzpatrick voted for H.R. 36 that would have amended the federal criminal code to make it a crime for any person to perform or attempt to perform an abortion if the probable post-fertilization age of the fetus is 20 weeks or more. And five years later, he cast an opposing vote to the Women’s Health Protection Act of 2022, that would have prohibited governmental restrictions on the provision of, and access to, abortion services.
“Congressman Fitzpatrick has always stood, and will continue to stand, firmly in support of Pennsylvania’s current law, which allows abortion to be legal through the first 24 weeks of pregnancy,” said his campaign in an email statement. “His commitment to protecting women’s health remains unwavering, including safeguarding access to contraception and IVF.
“(Ehasz’s) characterization of H.R. 36 – which allows abortions by choice for five months and abortions for medical necessities for nine months – as a “ban” shows how dishonest she remains. Our Democrat senator Bob Casey Jr. voted for this same exact measure. Is Ehasz claiming that Sen. Casey voted for a “ban?” She won’t, because she knows it is a lie.”
Upswing Research & Strategy conducted a survey among 400 likely general election voters from September 4-10 using mixed mode methodology; we conducted 269 interviews via live calls on landlines and cells and 131 interviews via SMS, otherwise known as text to web. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%.
Note: updated to reflect additions to quotes from spokespeople
One released internal poll deserves another in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District.
Days after Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s campaign unveiled a survey showing the Republican incumbent up by double digits, his Democratic challenger Ashley Ehasz countered with numbers showing her down by just five points, 50-45%.
The poll was conducted by Upswing, a Democratic research and strategy firm.
Ehasz, a veteran and former Apache helicopter pilot, has held steady in support since a June survey from the same group showed her down by two points, 47-45%.
Fitzpatrick’s internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies (POS) gave the three-term incumbent a 14-point advantage (54-40%).
Upswing’s research, though, found that after informing respondents about Fitzpatrick’s claims of independence versus Ehasz’s background, as well as the Republican’s “support for a nationwide abortion ban,” support shifted toward the challenger, 51-44%.
“PA-01 is an overwhelmingly pro-choice district currently represented by the overwhelmingly anti-choice Brian Fitzpatrick,” said Victoria Casarrubbias, campaign spokesperson. “Ashley believes that reproductive decisions should be made between a woman and her doctor, rather than politicians, and this poll shows that Bucks and Montgomery County voters vehemently agree. The pathway to victory for Ashley in November is clear: when voters learn the truth that Brian voted for a national abortion ban that would overturn Pennsylvania state law, they pull their support from the incumbent and choose Ashley by 7 points.”
In 2017, Fitzpatrick voted for H.R. 36 that would have amended the federal criminal code to make it a crime for any person to perform or attempt to perform an abortion if the probable post-fertilization age of the fetus is 20 weeks or more. And five years later, he cast an opposing vote to the Women’s Health Protection Act of 2022, that would have prohibited governmental restrictions on the provision of, and access to, abortion services.
“Congressman Fitzpatrick has always stood, and will continue to stand, firmly in support of Pennsylvania’s current law, which allows abortion to be legal through the first 24 weeks of pregnancy,” said his campaign in an email statement. “His commitment to protecting women’s health remains unwavering, including safeguarding access to contraception and IVF.
“(Ehasz’s) characterization of H.R. 36 – which allows abortions by choice for five months and abortions for medical necessities for nine months – as a “ban” shows how dishonest she remains. Our Democrat senator Bob Casey Jr. voted for this same exact measure. Is Ehasz claiming that Sen. Casey voted for a “ban?” She won’t, because she knows it is a lie.”
Upswing Research & Strategy conducted a survey among 400 likely general election voters from September 4-10 using mixed mode methodology; we conducted 269 interviews via live calls on landlines and cells and 131 interviews via SMS, otherwise known as text to web. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%.
Note: updated to reflect additions to quotes from spokespeople
One released internal poll deserves another in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District.
Days after Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s campaign unveiled a survey showing the Republican incumbent up by double digits, his Democratic challenger Ashley Ehasz countered with numbers showing her down by just five points, 50-45%.
The poll was conducted by Upswing, a Democratic research and strategy firm.
Ehasz, a veteran and former Apache helicopter pilot, has held steady in support since a June survey from the same group showed her down by two points, 47-45%.
Fitzpatrick’s internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies (POS) gave the three-term incumbent a 14-point advantage (54-40%).
Upswing’s research, though, found that after informing respondents about Fitzpatrick’s claims of independence versus Ehasz’s background, as well as the Republican’s “support for a nationwide abortion ban,” support shifted toward the challenger, 51-44%.
“PA-01 is an overwhelmingly pro-choice district currently represented by the overwhelmingly anti-choice Brian Fitzpatrick,” said Victoria Casarrubbias, campaign spokesperson. “Ashley believes that reproductive decisions should be made between a woman and her doctor, rather than politicians, and this poll shows that Bucks and Montgomery County voters vehemently agree. The pathway to victory for Ashley in November is clear: when voters learn the truth that Brian voted for a national abortion ban that would overturn Pennsylvania state law, they pull their support from the incumbent and choose Ashley by 7 points.”
In 2017, Fitzpatrick voted for H.R. 36 that would have amended the federal criminal code to make it a crime for any person to perform or attempt to perform an abortion if the probable post-fertilization age of the fetus is 20 weeks or more. And five years later, he cast an opposing vote to the Women’s Health Protection Act of 2022, that would have prohibited governmental restrictions on the provision of, and access to, abortion services.
“Congressman Fitzpatrick has always stood, and will continue to stand, firmly in support of Pennsylvania’s current law, which allows abortion to be legal through the first 24 weeks of pregnancy,” said his campaign in an email statement. “His commitment to protecting women’s health remains unwavering, including safeguarding access to contraception and IVF.
“(Ehasz’s) characterization of H.R. 36 – which allows abortions by choice for five months and abortions for medical necessities for nine months – as a “ban” shows how dishonest she remains. Our Democrat senator Bob Casey Jr. voted for this same exact measure. Is Ehasz claiming that Sen. Casey voted for a “ban?” She won’t, because she knows it is a lie.”
Upswing Research & Strategy conducted a survey among 400 likely general election voters from September 4-10 using mixed mode methodology; we conducted 269 interviews via live calls on landlines and cells and 131 interviews via SMS, otherwise known as text to web. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%.
Note: updated to reflect additions to quotes from spokespeople
One released internal poll deserves another in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District.
Days after Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s campaign unveiled a survey showing the Republican incumbent up by double digits, his Democratic challenger Ashley Ehasz countered with numbers showing her down by just five points, 50-45%.
The poll was conducted by Upswing, a Democratic research and strategy firm.
Ehasz, a veteran and former Apache helicopter pilot, has held steady in support since a June survey from the same group showed her down by two points, 47-45%.
Fitzpatrick’s internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies (POS) gave the three-term incumbent a 14-point advantage (54-40%).
Upswing’s research, though, found that after informing respondents about Fitzpatrick’s claims of independence versus Ehasz’s background, as well as the Republican’s “support for a nationwide abortion ban,” support shifted toward the challenger, 51-44%.
“PA-01 is an overwhelmingly pro-choice district currently represented by the overwhelmingly anti-choice Brian Fitzpatrick,” said Victoria Casarrubbias, campaign spokesperson. “Ashley believes that reproductive decisions should be made between a woman and her doctor, rather than politicians, and this poll shows that Bucks and Montgomery County voters vehemently agree. The pathway to victory for Ashley in November is clear: when voters learn the truth that Brian voted for a national abortion ban that would overturn Pennsylvania state law, they pull their support from the incumbent and choose Ashley by 7 points.”
In 2017, Fitzpatrick voted for H.R. 36 that would have amended the federal criminal code to make it a crime for any person to perform or attempt to perform an abortion if the probable post-fertilization age of the fetus is 20 weeks or more. And five years later, he cast an opposing vote to the Women’s Health Protection Act of 2022, that would have prohibited governmental restrictions on the provision of, and access to, abortion services.
“Congressman Fitzpatrick has always stood, and will continue to stand, firmly in support of Pennsylvania’s current law, which allows abortion to be legal through the first 24 weeks of pregnancy,” said his campaign in an email statement. “His commitment to protecting women’s health remains unwavering, including safeguarding access to contraception and IVF.
“(Ehasz’s) characterization of H.R. 36 – which allows abortions by choice for five months and abortions for medical necessities for nine months – as a “ban” shows how dishonest she remains. Our Democrat senator Bob Casey Jr. voted for this same exact measure. Is Ehasz claiming that Sen. Casey voted for a “ban?” She won’t, because she knows it is a lie.”
Upswing Research & Strategy conducted a survey among 400 likely general election voters from September 4-10 using mixed mode methodology; we conducted 269 interviews via live calls on landlines and cells and 131 interviews via SMS, otherwise known as text to web. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%.
Note: updated to reflect additions to quotes from spokespeople
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