Cook Moves PA Senate Race Into Toss-Up Category
Moves all-important PA race from “Leans Democrat,” citing internal polling from both camps
October 21, 2024
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Moves all-important PA race from “Leans Democrat,” citing internal polling from both camps
It’s been a long, slow march but at least to one organization, Republican Dave McCormick has pulled even with Democrat Bob Casey Jr. in the race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat.
The Cook Political Report moved the race from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-Up” in a report released today.
While public polling in the Keystone State continues to show Casey with a 3-5 point advantage, Cook writes that private, internal polling paints a much different picture, indicating that the race is a “margin-of-error” contest.
Casey has held the lead for most of the election cycle, including double-digit advantages from pollsters such as New York Times/Siena, Franklin & Marshall College, and Fox News back in the summer.
But McCormick has consistently gained ground. In the 19 surveys taken in the race since Labor Day, Casey holds an average 5.3 percentage-point lead. But an average of the last five polls shows that deficit has shrunk to 3.7 points.
According to Cook, “both parties’ private polling shows McCormick shoring up the GOP base and making gains in the western part of the state, particularly in and around Allegheny County/Pittsburgh, where he now lives. Republicans say the undecided Senate voters skew non-college and are more likely to be swayed on inflation, though they are lower-propensity voters.
“McCormick’s biggest weakness remains abortion, which Casey — formerly the last pro-life Democrat in the Senate — hammered him on in their two recent debates. This is where Democrats believe Casey will have the edge in the all-important Philadelphia suburbs with women voters.”
McCormick’s super PAC – Keystone Renewal – has pounded away on Casey as a career politician who’s part of the problem in Washington, pointing to record grocery prices in Philadelphia and his votes for Wall Street bailouts. The PAC spent $30.7 million from July 1 to September 30, mostly over the airwaves.
Democrats have constantly painted McCormick as a “carpet-bagger,” pointing to his residence in Connecticut to him not being “from Pennsylvania.” They have also magnified the fact the McCormick is a former hedge fund executive.
In the final days of the race, Republicans have reserved $30.7 million in ad time, according to AdImpact, to just $19.8 million for Democrats as of publication.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter provides independent, non-partisan analysis of elections and campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
It’s been a long, slow march but at least to one organization, Republican Dave McCormick has pulled even with Democrat Bob Casey Jr. in the race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat.
The Cook Political Report moved the race from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-Up” in a report released today.
While public polling in the Keystone State continues to show Casey with a 3-5 point advantage, Cook writes that private, internal polling paints a much different picture, indicating that the race is a “margin-of-error” contest.
Casey has held the lead for most of the election cycle, including double-digit advantages from pollsters such as New York Times/Siena, Franklin & Marshall College, and Fox News back in the summer.
But McCormick has consistently gained ground. In the 19 surveys taken in the race since Labor Day, Casey holds an average 5.3 percentage-point lead. But an average of the last five polls shows that deficit has shrunk to 3.7 points.
According to Cook, “both parties’ private polling shows McCormick shoring up the GOP base and making gains in the western part of the state, particularly in and around Allegheny County/Pittsburgh, where he now lives. Republicans say the undecided Senate voters skew non-college and are more likely to be swayed on inflation, though they are lower-propensity voters.
“McCormick’s biggest weakness remains abortion, which Casey — formerly the last pro-life Democrat in the Senate — hammered him on in their two recent debates. This is where Democrats believe Casey will have the edge in the all-important Philadelphia suburbs with women voters.”
McCormick’s super PAC – Keystone Renewal – has pounded away on Casey as a career politician who’s part of the problem in Washington, pointing to record grocery prices in Philadelphia and his votes for Wall Street bailouts. The PAC spent $30.7 million from July 1 to September 30, mostly over the airwaves.
Democrats have constantly painted McCormick as a “carpet-bagger,” pointing to his residence in Connecticut to him not being “from Pennsylvania.” They have also magnified the fact the McCormick is a former hedge fund executive.
In the final days of the race, Republicans have reserved $30.7 million in ad time, according to AdImpact, to just $19.8 million for Democrats as of publication.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter provides independent, non-partisan analysis of elections and campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
It’s been a long, slow march but at least to one organization, Republican Dave McCormick has pulled even with Democrat Bob Casey Jr. in the race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat.
The Cook Political Report moved the race from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-Up” in a report released today.
While public polling in the Keystone State continues to show Casey with a 3-5 point advantage, Cook writes that private, internal polling paints a much different picture, indicating that the race is a “margin-of-error” contest.
Casey has held the lead for most of the election cycle, including double-digit advantages from pollsters such as New York Times/Siena, Franklin & Marshall College, and Fox News back in the summer.
But McCormick has consistently gained ground. In the 19 surveys taken in the race since Labor Day, Casey holds an average 5.3 percentage-point lead. But an average of the last five polls shows that deficit has shrunk to 3.7 points.
According to Cook, “both parties’ private polling shows McCormick shoring up the GOP base and making gains in the western part of the state, particularly in and around Allegheny County/Pittsburgh, where he now lives. Republicans say the undecided Senate voters skew non-college and are more likely to be swayed on inflation, though they are lower-propensity voters.
“McCormick’s biggest weakness remains abortion, which Casey — formerly the last pro-life Democrat in the Senate — hammered him on in their two recent debates. This is where Democrats believe Casey will have the edge in the all-important Philadelphia suburbs with women voters.”
McCormick’s super PAC – Keystone Renewal – has pounded away on Casey as a career politician who’s part of the problem in Washington, pointing to record grocery prices in Philadelphia and his votes for Wall Street bailouts. The PAC spent $30.7 million from July 1 to September 30, mostly over the airwaves.
Democrats have constantly painted McCormick as a “carpet-bagger,” pointing to his residence in Connecticut to him not being “from Pennsylvania.” They have also magnified the fact the McCormick is a former hedge fund executive.
In the final days of the race, Republicans have reserved $30.7 million in ad time, according to AdImpact, to just $19.8 million for Democrats as of publication.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter provides independent, non-partisan analysis of elections and campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
It’s been a long, slow march but at least to one organization, Republican Dave McCormick has pulled even with Democrat Bob Casey Jr. in the race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat.
The Cook Political Report moved the race from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-Up” in a report released today.
While public polling in the Keystone State continues to show Casey with a 3-5 point advantage, Cook writes that private, internal polling paints a much different picture, indicating that the race is a “margin-of-error” contest.
Casey has held the lead for most of the election cycle, including double-digit advantages from pollsters such as New York Times/Siena, Franklin & Marshall College, and Fox News back in the summer.
But McCormick has consistently gained ground. In the 19 surveys taken in the race since Labor Day, Casey holds an average 5.3 percentage-point lead. But an average of the last five polls shows that deficit has shrunk to 3.7 points.
According to Cook, “both parties’ private polling shows McCormick shoring up the GOP base and making gains in the western part of the state, particularly in and around Allegheny County/Pittsburgh, where he now lives. Republicans say the undecided Senate voters skew non-college and are more likely to be swayed on inflation, though they are lower-propensity voters.
“McCormick’s biggest weakness remains abortion, which Casey — formerly the last pro-life Democrat in the Senate — hammered him on in their two recent debates. This is where Democrats believe Casey will have the edge in the all-important Philadelphia suburbs with women voters.”
McCormick’s super PAC – Keystone Renewal – has pounded away on Casey as a career politician who’s part of the problem in Washington, pointing to record grocery prices in Philadelphia and his votes for Wall Street bailouts. The PAC spent $30.7 million from July 1 to September 30, mostly over the airwaves.
Democrats have constantly painted McCormick as a “carpet-bagger,” pointing to his residence in Connecticut to him not being “from Pennsylvania.” They have also magnified the fact the McCormick is a former hedge fund executive.
In the final days of the race, Republicans have reserved $30.7 million in ad time, according to AdImpact, to just $19.8 million for Democrats as of publication.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter provides independent, non-partisan analysis of elections and campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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