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The Hill Puts PA on Most Likely Senate Seats to Flip in 2022 List

As control of the U.S. Senate on the line in 2022, Democrats and Republicans are already eyeing up several states to flip into the win column. 

According to The Hill, Pennsylvania’s Senate seat in 2022 is in the top 9 most likely to most likely to flip parties. 

The Hill’s Max Greenwood wrote on May 29 that Pennsylvania, which is the first state listed in the 9 state analysis, “won’t be easy” to flip for Democrats, but citing Sen. Pat Toomey’s upcoming retirement, coupled with President Joe Biden’s “narrow win” in the state in 2020, means that Democrats view it as “one of their best opportunities to flip a Senate seat that has been held by Republicans for 50 of the past 52 years.” 

Although Democrats view Pennsylvania’s Senate seat as one of their best opportunities to flip in 2022, Greenwood writes that “many Republicans” believe that former President Donald Trump’s “brand of conservative populism” can lead the GOP to victory in the Keystone State in 2022. 

“A number of GOP candidates are already vying for the mantle of Trump acolyte, and several more are still considering bids,” Greenwood writes, although he doesn’t mention any GOP candidates by name in the analysis. 

Jeff Bartos, a Montgomery County real estate developer and former Lt. Governor candidate, Sean Parnell, a verteran who lost to Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny) in 2020, Sean Gale, an attorney, Everett Stern, a businessman and HSBC whistleblower, and Kathy Barnette, a veteran and conservative commentator who was the GOP nominee for Pennsylvania’s 4th Congressional District in 2020, are in the GOP race for Senate. According to the FEC, James Edward Hayes, John Debellis, Martin Rosenfeld, and Robert Jeffries have also filed statements of candidacy. 

Other Republicans that have previously been reported as interested in seeking the GOP nomination according to Politico include, former Congressman Ryan Costello (R-Chester), former Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite, former gubernatorial candidate Paul Mango, former U.S. Ambassador Carla Sands, and business consultant Craig Snyder.

However, several Democrats are mentioned by name in The Hill’s analysis in the primary field that is “also crowded,” including Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta (D-Philadelphia), Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh, and Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny), who is considering a run for the Senate seat. 

In addition to Arkoosh, Fetterman, Kenyatta, and Lamb, several other Democrats have declared their entrace into the race and a few more are reportedly mulling bids for the seat. 

Former Norristown Borough Council President John McGuigan, and Dr. Kevin Baumlin have both launched their campaigns for Senate. State Sen. Sharif Street (D-Philadelphia) filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Elections Commission for U.S. Senate and formally announced his exploratory committee in April. 

According to the FEC website, Brandaun Dean, Larry Johnson, Alexandria Khalil, Kyle Norton, and Alan Shank have also filed statements of candidacy for the Democratic primary. 

According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, other potential Democratic candidates include Reps. Madeleine Dean (D-Montgomery) Chrissy Houlahan (D-Chester), and Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney.

The Hill is just the latest national ratings outlet to mention Pennsylvania’s Senate race in the most likely to flip category. 

For three months in a row, CNN has placed Pennsylvania’s seat as the most likely to flip parties in the 2022 election in it’s latest Top 10 rankings released on May 27. 

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated Pennsylvania’s Senate race in 2022 as the lone Toss Up of the cycle in its initial ratings, the Cook Political Report listed Pennsylvania’s race as one of two states that are considered to be Toss Ups, and Inside Elections labels the Keystone State as a “Battleground” for the 2022 Senate election.

3 Responses

  1. There will be no Trump populism vote in 2022. Even in rural PA, Trump is fading. The signs are coming down, the fascist red hats are disappearing. By November of 2022, Trump will either be in prison or sitting in a spoiled diaper in Trump tower.

      1. Trump will elect a Dem Governor and Senator. Drive HUGE turnout in Philly and suburbs overwhelming R’s.

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