We are now just 62 days away from the 2022 general election and as the campaigning heats up, we turn our attention to what we think are the five most closely-watched races in the Commonwealth.
John Fetterman (D) vs.
Mehmet Oz (R)
The marquee matchup of the 2022 general election could determine control of the U.S. Senate. Fetterman, the lieutenant governor of the Commonwealth, and Oz, the heart surgeon turned TV personality, could spend north of $261 million in ad buys.
PoliticsPA Poll Average: Fetterman +9.1
- Latest Poll (Susquehanna, Aug 22-29): Fetterman +5.0
Josh Shapiro (D) vs.
Doug Mastriano (R)
Observers note that this race could determine the future of reproductive rights in the Commonwealth, as well as the future of elections in the state. Shapiro, the Pennsylvania Attorney General, and Mastriano, the state senator from Franklin County, are on pace to spend more than $115 million in ad buys this cycle.
PoliticsPA Poll Average: Shapiro +7.7
- Latest Poll (Emerson, Aug 22-23): Shapiro +3.0
Susan Wild* (D) vs.
Lisa Scheller (R)
This is a rematch of the 2020 election that saw Wild hold off Scheller, 52-48. The incumbent has a nearly $2 million advantage in fund raising, but the GOP is hopeful that the Lehigh Valley district is ready to turn red.
PoliticsPA Poll Average: Scheller +4.0
- Latest Poll (RMG Research, July 31-Aug 5): Scheller +4.0
Matt Cartwright* (D) vs.
Jim Bognet (R)
This district in the northeastern corner of the state also features a rematch of their 2020 race that Cartwright won by four points. The incumbent holds a $2.2 million advantage in cash on hand entering the stretch, but Bognet has been endorsed by both former President Donald Trump and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
PoliticsPA Poll Average: Cartwright +2.5
- Latest Poll (GQR Research, Aug 2-9): Cartwright +6.0
Chris Deluzio (D) vs.
Jeremy Shaffer (R)
Allegheny and Beaver Counties have an open House seat after the departure of Conor Lamb to run for the Senate. Deluzio, a voting right attorney and Iraq War veteran, squares off with Shaffer, a co-founder of a small business and former township commissioner.
PoliticsPA Poll Average: Deluzio +1.0
- Latest Poll (Lake Research Partners, July 31-Aug 5): Deluzio +1.0