National Journal published a list Wednesday of 75 U.S. House races expected to be most competitive in the coming election, and three PA districts made the ranks. District 12, 8, and 6 are ranked at No. 30, 39 and 68 respectively, and are among the districts deemed most likely to change partisan control.
However, analysts at National Journal said they are not expecting a political shift of the same magnitude that brought a GOP majority to the House in 2010; and despite newly drawn maps that marginally favor the right, two of the three PA incumbents who could lose their seats this season are Republicans.
In 2010, there were twice as many contentious U.S. House races in the state. As the political pendulum made a heavy swing rightward, the GOP flipped five (almost seven) House seats. All five of those seats were listed by the National Journal as likely to switch partisan control.
This year, the No. 1 PA race belongs to 12th district Rep. Mark Critz (D-Cambria) and his GOP hopeful Keith Rothfus – they earned the highest ranking of any PA race due to what the National Journal has cited as growing hostility towards Dems in Western PA.
PoliticsPA recently reported on Critz’s shrinking six-point lead over his opponent, noting that the congressman has had to “fight hard to keep his seat.” Before Critz, the seat was in the hands of the late Rep. John Murtha, and therefore a Democratic stronghold for 36 years.
Following Murtha’s death, the GOP jumped at the possibility of flipping the seat, which would have been a boon to the party that few other victories could have matched. Instead, the district was redrawn to lean R, and many eyes are on PA-12, seeing whether it will swing red.
PA-08 is also on the Journal’s radar, due to the fact that Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick’s (R-Bucks) district is “one of several that will test whether Democrats can successfully exploit Ryan budget votes.” Q2 fundraising totals for PA-08 were indeed close, with Dem challenger Kathy Boockvar generating just $65k less than Fitzpatrick’s camp.
“Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Chester) is another longtime Democratic target seemingly racing against time and the expansion of the Philadelphia suburbs,” the National Journal reported in conjunction with their ranking of PA-06. PoliticsPA is also expecting a close race in the SEPA district, in which congressional hopeful Manan Trivedi has more cash on hand ($527K) than any other Democratic challenger in PA.
The exactitude of the list will remain to be seen until post-Election Day, but if the accuracy of the 2010 list can be used as an indicator, incumbents on this season’s list ought to be wary.
Supporting Kathy Bookvar and Manan Trevedi. The Republicans do not truly represent these districts. Gerlach does nothing and proposes nothing…he is a sheep. Mike Fitzpatrick is so busy pressing the ultra-Catholic agenda he forgets that we need jobs, infrastructure work and better education. He swallowed the Republican rhetoric hook, line and sinker.
Supporting Kathy Boockvar!!!
Supporting Kathy Boockvar, Obama, and every democrat for Obamacare, Women’s Rights and equality for all. Shame on the Republican Party for passing bills against women and trying to repeal Obamacare, while wanting to gut medicare,SS, and bust unions.
I do not see any representation for Montgomery County. Did I miss it? I want to get involved, but never get any replies or calls. 610-927-7584
I do not see any representation for Montgomery County. How can I get involved?
MASSIVE Dems defeat coming!
Thanks to ObamasDeathCare Law, War on Oil, Women, businesses, guns, US citizens, and Coal
I WOULD JUST LIKE TO HAVE KEITH THE CANDIDATE ROTHFUS COME CLEAN: ABOUT HIS WORK FOR FEMA DURING KATRINA, ABOUT HIS SERVICE FOR FAITH HEALER PAT ROBERTSON, ABOUT HIS SUPPORT OF THE RYAN PLAN TO DESTROY MEDICARE. AFTER REGULARLRY CALLING FOR HIM TO DENOUNCE THE TURZAI VOTER SUPPERSSION PLAN TO DENY SENIORS THEIR RIGHT TO VOTE( I gave him the benefit of doubt), I HAVE TO ASSUME THE FORMER BELTWAY FEMA OFFICIAL ROTHFUS SUPPORTS THE DISENFRANCISEMENT OF WESTERN PA SENIORS!
I don’t think that the republican plan will go as plan. The November general election will problaby will be a disaster for republicans. well that my opinion
The Republican re-districting plan may not be as successful as planned. It surely wasn’t after the 2000 census.
Well, in the 8th and the 6th districts, the new Voter Suppression Law…
suppressed 1,000 more Republicans than Democrats in EACH district..
So, if the law isn’t overturned, and the Dems wins by under 1,000… they can thank the State GOP for shooting themselves in the foot.