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Three Polls Show Casey and Wolf Up Double-Digits

Three polls, three sizable leads.

Over the last 7 days, new polls released from Rasmussen Reports, Morning Call/Muhlenberg College, and Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics show Democratic incumbents Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey maintaining double digit leads over their GOP challengers, Scott Wagner and Rep. Lou Barletta. The polling also indicated that President Donald Trump is playing a factor in how people will vote in November.

The first poll of the bunch, released last Wednesday from Rasmussen Reports, shows Casey leading Barletta 52% to 38% among likely voters, with 8% undecided and 2% likely supporting another candidate. This poll was conducted by telephone and online survey.  

Half of all voters in PA, 50%, say the election is a referendum on Trump’s agenda, while 38% say it’s more about the candidates and the issues, and 12% undecided.

This poll showed the most positive numbers for Trump with the President holding a 46% approval rating and 53% disapproving. For voters who see the 2018 elections as a referendum on Trump, Casey has the advantage over Barletta 60% to 34%.

This survey that included 800 likely voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on September 12-13, with a +/- 3.5 margin of error and “95% level of confidence.”

The following day, Rasmussen Reports poll on the governor’s race shows Wolf leading Wagner 52% to 40% among likely voters, while 5% remain undecided and 3% prefer another candidate.  

Likely voters polled chose taxes and government spending as the the most important issue to them for the election at 20%, while the economy comes in a close second place at 19%. Illegal immigration, 16%, and government ethics and corruption, 14%, were the only other issues that reached double digits for the most important issue in the election.  

Like the race between Casey and Barletta, this survey also included 800 likely voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on September 12-13, with a +/- 3.5 margin of error and “95% level of confidence.”

On Friday, Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll among likely voters, including “leaners”, has Casey holding 53%, while 35% support Barletta, with 6% not sure. Green Party candidate Neal Gale and Libertarian Dale Kerns Jr. were at 2 percent each.

The top issue for likely voters and leaners for their Senate vote is the need for Democrats in office to check on Trump at 18%. The economy/jobs comes in as the second most important issue with 14%, and coming in third is taxes at 12%.

The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll among likely voters, including “leaners”, for the race for Governor shows Wolf leading the pack with 55%, Wagner getting 36% of the vote, Libertarian candidate Ken Krawchuk landing 2%, and Green Party candidate Paul Glover at 1%.

In contrast with the Senate race, the top issue for those polled is the economy/jobs at 21%. Education and taxes were tied next with 12%.

This poll of 404 likely Pennsylvania voters, interviewed on a mix of landlines and mobile phones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.

Today, Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics released polling in five states that included Pennsylvania’s race for the Senate and Governor.

Casey leads Barletta 53% to 37% among likely voters.

44% of those polled approved of President Trump’s job performance, while 56% disapprove, showing a couple point difference from the Rasmussen Reports poll.

Wolf brings in 55% of the vote, while Wagner is at 38%. 

In this polling, Pennsylvania likely voters selected the economy as the most important factor determining their vote with 15%. Healthcare finished second at 13%, followed by social security and immigration tied at 12%.  

See the full data here for the Rasmussen Reports polling for Senate and Governor, Morning Call/Muhlenberg College, and Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polling.

4 Responses

  1. It is clear that there are some who voted for Trump who are OK voting for Casey and Wolf. That is the issue for both Bartletta and Wagner. Since 16, Trump hasn’t added any new voters. He has lost some.

    1. Dems won the row offices in PA in 2016. The “Trump effect” seems to be confined to the race between him and Hillary and not correlated to any other elections.

      Casey and Wolf will win the “poll” on Nov 6th by double digits. I bet the race is called within an hour of the polls closing.

      1. I basically agree with you. I actually think both races will be called within 5 minutes of the polls being closed. I guess some damaging info could come out on either but both live amazingly boring lives so I don’t see that happening. I don’t know where you live but I am in Chesco and all 4 row offices on the ballot in 17 were taken, for the first time EVER, by Democrats. All 4 were women. I expect this to be a harbinger of what is coming very soon.

      2. David – you hit the exact point – many factors played into Trump’s electoral college victory, not the least of which was that Hillary Clinton was a very poor candidate. It was a race between 2 candidates with very high negatives for both. I believe any of the Republican candidates would have eventually defeated Hillary Clinton, not only via the electoral college, but also by the popular vote because PEOPLE JUST DON’T LIKE HER. Too much emphasis was put on the idea that people will realize how evil Trump is – NO, they really couldn’t stomach voting for Hillary.

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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