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Trafalgar: Fetterman Leads Oz, 47-45


The latest Trafalgar Group poll indicates what other polls have been showing since the start of the general election campaign – John Fetterman leads Mehmet Oz in the race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat.

In a survey of 1,078 likely voters, Fetterman, the Democratic lieutenant governor of the Keystone State, pulled in 47.2 percent, while Oz, his Republican challenger, garnered 44.8 percent. Libertarian Erik Gerhardt received 3.4 percent, while 4.1 percent still indicated they were unsure or undecided.

Fetterman’s lead has grown slightly since the last time Trafalgar polled in mid-September. In that survey, the Democrat received 47.7 percent to 45.9 percent for the celebrity doctor – a difference of just 1.8 percent, opposed to 2.4 in the most recent poll.

Fetterman, who has recently appeared before editorial boards at the Harrisburg Patriot-News and Philadelphia Inquirer to answer questions about policies and his health, has not trailed in any poll since May. His lowest polling number since mid-September was 45.0 percent, while Oz’s ceiling was the 45.9 percent number recorded by Trafalgar (Sep. 13-15). The PoliticsPA average of all polls shows Fetterman was a 7.4 percentage-point advantage, while the five most recent surveys gives the Democrat a 3.9 point edge.

Oz has his greater strength among the 45-64 year-old crowd (+14.6) while also showing good numbers among men (+7.3) and voters between 18-24 (+9.5). Fetterman has stronger numbers among women (+11.2) and all other age groups, including a +28.2 lead among voters 25-34.

The survey shows that the Republican candidate is also running strong in three regions of the Commonwealth – Wilkes-Barre-Scranton-Hazleton (+11.9), Harrisburg-Lancaster-York (+9.2), and Johnstown-Altoona-State College (+54.4). His Democratic opponent has larger numbers in Erie (+7.4), Philadelphia (+5.0) and Pittsburgh (+19.7).

The survey was conducted between October 8-11 with 1,078 respondents who are likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.9%.


3 Responses


  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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