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Trafalgar Poll: Biden 47.3, Trump 44.9

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll. 

The Trafalgar Group’s survey of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.3%-to-44.9%, while 2.4% said they plan to back Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen, 2.1% said someone else, and 2.3% remain undecided. 

Biden’s lead is within the poll’s 2.99% margin of error. 

The Trafalgar Group was one of the few pollsters that correctly predicted Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania in 2016 over Sec. Hillary Clinton. The analysts at FiveThirtyEight grade them as slightly learning towards Republicans, although The Hill has previously reported that the group “weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support the president.”

In July, Trafalgar Group showed Biden with a 5.3% lead over Trump, 48%-to-42.7%.  

Recent polling shows Biden leading Trump in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. 

A poll released on Sept. 8 from Susquehanna Polling & Research showed Biden with just a 2 point edge over Trump with likely voters, 44-to-42, which is within the poll’s margin of error. A Morning Consult poll released on Sept. 9 showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s largest lead in recent polls comes from a NBC News/Marist poll also released on Sept. 9 that shows 53% of likely voters in the state are backing Biden’s bid, while 44% are supporting Trump. 

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4 points in Pennsylvania.

This overall poll, surveying 1,006 likely Pennsylvania voters, collected data between September 15-17, has a margin of error of +/-2.99%. 

The full data can be found here.

22 Responses

    1. How can someone who wants no fracking day one be elected in a state where 500,000 jobs are attached to fracking. If he tells you otherwise, he’s lying. Look up the videos

      1. Biden said he supports fracking and his record also says that. Get your head out of your butt and check facts.

        1. You need to read his platform and watch the democratic debates. Both he and Harris blatantly stated they WERE AGAINST Fracking….check you facts please

        2. He said in his town hall that everyone in the fracking business can get jobs “capping wells” when they shut down fracking.

      2. Yes. Get ur head out of ur @$%. Biden is not against franking, u dumb @$% Fox Lies watcher!

  1. I’m in Michigan and there is no way biden is ahead. I’ve traveled all over the state and support is overwhelming fortrump. The signage alone is 10-1 for trump.

    1. I was “all over Michigan” in the past week, as well, and saw the opposite. Even in rural counties, where there are never any democrat signs to any degree, there were tons, and they greatly outnumbered Trump signs. Same in my allegedly republican suburb in Ohio. House after house with Biden signs and this was Red country 4 years ago. President Moron is toast.

      1. That’s likely because people are demonized for being a Trump supporter. You ever think of that genius? I’m seeing the same thing even here in rural Texas. But I know it’s just people being uncomfortable declaring their support for Trump because of how crazy the left has become

  2. People of Pa are tired of Biden claiming Pa to be his home state…left here at 7 years old and his allegiance is not this state as he would have you to believe. Trump will take Pa again because this state loves him and have lived the past 4 years under his leadership and have prospered and we need the Trump administration to protect us from the unrest and craziness that has been proliferating in so many states.

    1. These Polls are nuts and cant be accurate. I live in SE Missouri and we are a Trump State. I dont see how there can be huge differences. Just like Colorado its supposedly for Biden but he didnt even win the primary there Bernie Did.

      1. Believe me Colorado is firmly a blue state. I lived there for decades and decided to move Texas because of how liberal Colorado became. It’s a shame because it was one of the great western sportsman’s states but became nearly as anti-gun as California.

    2. If Trafalgar can’t produce numbers with Trump above water…there’s just no hope, I’m sorry.

      1. You can’t trust the polls Trafalgar just happens to be the closest to accurate

  3. Will Biden come out of his protected environment so we can see if there is dementia or not?

    And why aren’t Hispanics and other groups disturbed that without considering other candidates, he has decided on an African American woman for the Supreme Court?

    Isn’t he taking all the other racial groups for granted, insulting them that they have in his mind no qualified people?

  4. PA Trump campaign office, aka DeNapoli Crime Family, says Trump has election in the bag. Steve Z says that’s his legal opinion too, as confirmed by his Allegheny office and Stevie Z Jr.

  • Understanding that basic education funding should/will be first, what should be the next highest priority for the General Assembly?

    • Raising The Minimum Wage (25%)
    • Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana (24%)
    • None of the above. Something Else. (20%)
    • Economic Development (14%)
    • Higher Education (8%)
    • Public Transportation (8%)
    • Workforce Opportunities and Innovation (2%)

    Total Voters: 51

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