Trafalgar Poll: Biden 47.3, Trump 44.9
Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll.
The Trafalgar Group’s survey of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.3%-to-44.9%, while 2.4% said they plan to back Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen, 2.1% said someone else, and 2.3% remain undecided.
Biden’s lead is within the poll’s 2.99% margin of error.
The Trafalgar Group was one of the few pollsters that correctly predicted Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania in 2016 over Sec. Hillary Clinton. The analysts at FiveThirtyEight grade them as slightly learning towards Republicans, although The Hill has previously reported that the group “weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support the president.”
In July, Trafalgar Group showed Biden with a 5.3% lead over Trump, 48%-to-42.7%.
Recent polling shows Biden leading Trump in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster.
A poll released on Sept. 8 from Susquehanna Polling & Research showed Biden with just a 2 point edge over Trump with likely voters, 44-to-42, which is within the poll’s margin of error. A Morning Consult poll released on Sept. 9 showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s largest lead in recent polls comes from a NBC News/Marist poll also released on Sept. 9 that shows 53% of likely voters in the state are backing Biden’s bid, while 44% are supporting Trump.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4 points in Pennsylvania.
This overall poll, surveying 1,006 likely Pennsylvania voters, collected data between September 15-17, has a margin of error of +/-2.99%.
The full data can be found here.