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Trafalgar Poll: Biden 48, Trump 42.7

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to another new poll. 

The Trafalgar Group’s survey of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 48%-to-42.7%, while 6.4% said that they’d vote for someone else, and 3% remaining undecided. Biden’s lead is beyond the poll’s 2.92% margin of error. 

The Trafalgar Group was one of the few pollsters that correctly predicted Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania in 2016 over Sec. Hillary Clinton. The analysts at FiveThirtyEight grade them as slightly learning towards Republicans, although The Hill reports that the group “weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support the president.”

While Biden leads Trump by 5 points in Pennsylvania in this latest Trafalgar Group poll, the showdown between the former VP and the current president is within the margin of error in a few other battleground states. Trafalgar polling shows Trump with a narrow edge over the former VP in Wisconsin, in a virtual deadlock in Florida, and Biden with a slight advantage in Michigan.   

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania. This Trafalgar Group poll remains relatively consistent with the current RCP average and is slightly better news for the Trump campaign in comparison to a New York Times/Siena College poll released in late June showing Biden holding a 10 point lead, 50-to-40, in Pennsylvania.

This overall poll, surveying 1,062 likely Pennsylvania voters, collected data between June 29 to July 2, has a margin of error of +/-2.92%. 

The full data can be found here.

3 Responses

  1. The polls are struggling with predicting turnout in their models which is huge. With Trump and the Republicans challenging the mail-in procedure in Pa for voting the court ruling on this definitely alters the model for the polls. If Pa mail-in voting stands the polling distance is more toward 10 points between Biden and Trump because turnout will be sky high to vote.

  2. SAVE AMERICA – GO WITH JOE – DUMP TRUMP. Did ja see his niece is saying in her book that Uncle Donny paid someone to take his SATs for him. What a criminal sleeze bag that Trump is.

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