Trafalgar Poll: Fetterman 48.4, Oz 43.5

The Trafalgar Group surveyed 1,096 likely Pennsylvania general election voters who gave Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate John Fetterman a five-point advantage over GOP opponent Mehmet Oz.

Fetterman received 48.4 percent of the responses to the question, “If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote?” Oz pulled in 43.5 percent, while libertarian Erik Gerhardt received 1.8 percent. Just under five percent (4.6%) of the respondents indicated they were unsure or undecided.

This is the closest margin between the two candidates since mid-June when Fetterman led by 4.4 percentage points (48.2-43.8).

 

The poll was conducted between August 15-18 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

The Trafalgar Group has been given an A- rating by FiveThirtyEight.com.

In the PoliticsPA polling average, Fetterman has a 9.7 percentage point advantage over Oz.

11 Responses

  1. Trafaglar is an R pollster. They tend to add a couple of points to R margins to account for uncounted Trump voters. It wasn’t far off in 2020 but with Trump not on the ballot I would read these as pretty generous polls for Rs at the moment. And if this is the best showing they can get, Fetterman and Shapiro have to be feeling good.

  2. Looked at Trafalgar. 62.5% of their voters surveyed are 45 and above. They have 18 to 24 coming in at 6.9% and 25 to 34 coming in at 15.9%. So, the voters surveyed from ages 18 to 34 is 22.8%. Basically, they are saying voters from ages 18 to 34 are going to vote no more than 22.8%. Their argument is that older voters 45 and above will be 62.5% of the voting pool. If you put the 35 to 44 age group into the mix with their 14.8% of the poll with the 62.5% who are ages 45 and older, Trafalgar is saying voters 35 and above will be 77.3% of the poll. Trafalgar is sayin that nearly 8 out of every 10 voters will be 35 and above in age and younger voters 18 to 34 will constitute 22.8% of the vote. Bottom line: For Fetterman to be ahead in a poll slanted to the older voter is impressive. If he can get young voters out, he can win easily.

    1. This scares me. We’ve outspent the R’s by 10x, maybe more in Shapiro’s case. We should be up far more than this. Considering the voting electorate’s view of the Democratic ability to control inflation, gas, crime, and immigration, there is a ton of vulnerability here. No? Can we actually have a Governor Mastriano??? Please say no.

  3. OMG. NJ Oz got almost as many % as Dung Mastriano, who at least lives in PA. You can verify that by the shitty odor hanging over his neighborhood.

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