Trafalgar: Shapiro Leads Mastriano, 53-44

Josh Shapiro, Doug Mastriano with microphones

The only good news for the Doug Mastriano campaign is that his deficit is down in the single digits.

The latest Trafalgar Group survey of 1,078 likely voters shows Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro with a 52.8 to 43.5 point advantage over the GOP candidate. It is the first time in the last seven polls that the state senator from Franklin County has seen his deficit below 10 points.

Libertarian candidate Matt Hackenburg pulled in 1.3 percent, while two percent remain undecided in a survey with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 points.

Shapiro, the Attorney General of the Commonwealth, showed strong numbers across the demographic board, including more than 15 percentage point advantages among voters 25-34 (39.2), 35-44 (17.8) and 65+ (16.3). He also held a considerable edge among women (17.9) and a smaller advantage among men (9.3).

Mastriano shows better among voters 45-64 by 11.2 percentage points, while his gap among men is just 0.3 points.

Shapiro has held on strongly to Democratic voters (84.6%), while Mastriano has secured just 73.8 percent of GOP likely voters. The Democratic candidate also has a 5.5% advantage among white voters.

The Republican nominee showed greater strength in the Harrisburg-Lancaster-York (52.9%) and Johnstown-Altoona-State College (64.9%) regions, while his opponent dominated Philadelphia (57.7%), Pittsburgh (58.9%) and Erie (67.1%).

In the PoliticsPA average of all polls, Shapiro has topped all 23 surveys by an average of 9.2 points, while his lead grows to 11.1 points in the five most recent polls. The Democrat has not trailed in any of the surveys and has garnered over 50 percent support in nine polls since mid-September. Mastriano’s high water mark in that time was 45.4% in the last Trafalgar Poll.

The survey was conducted between October 8-11 with 1,078 respondents who are likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.9%.

4 Responses

    1. If you had Doug standing next to a dung heap, how would you tell them apart to decide which one to toss on the other?

  1. Trafalgar while an excellent poll is lowballing voters under 35 for their survey. I see Shapiro leading by even more than Trafalgar is saying.

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