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Trib Poll: Obama, Romney Tied at 47

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney enter the final 3 days of the campaign at a dead heat according to the latest survey from Susquehanna Polling and Research.

The poll, commissioned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, shows Obama and Romney tied at 47 percent apiece.

The survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 29 to 31, but most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy struck the state. The poll’s error margin is plus or minus 3.46 percent.

Obama and Romney are also tied at favorability, 48 percent apiece. 47 percent view Obama unfavorably; 44 percent view Romney unfavorably.

For Romney, it’s a dropoff from SP&R’s previous Pa. poll where Romney lead by 4 points, 49 percent to 45. That was commissioned by the Pa. Republican Party. That survey also showed Republican Tom Smith ahead of Sen. Bob Casey. In early October, SP&R found Obama ahead 47 percent to 45. In the Trib’s last poll, in late September, SP&R showed the same result – 47 percent to 45.

48 percent of respondents identified as Democrats, 42 percent as Republicans.

SP&R’s poll results diverge from some other independent numbers because of differences in methodology about how they choose their sample. The Real Clear Politics average, which includes this poll, shows Obama leading by 4.1 points, 49.4 percent to 45.3.

10 Responses

  1. This is classic, so what’s the prediction? If Obama wins 51 – 49 is Jimmy Lee going to claim he was right?
    47-47 ?? I have no polling experience what so ever and I can say that. At least other polls are giving a clear winner, this guy has been brown nosing for attention with his too close to call numbers, yet not saying anything specific, this way no matter what the outcome he’s going to claim he was right.

  2. Susquehanna did the same 48:42:10 sampling before.

    Fact is, the voter registration in PA is 50:37:13.

    This is standard Susquehanna methodology, over-sample R and under-sample D and I.

  3. The non-partisan Manhattan Institute is reporting today that Obama and 50 of his EPA lawyers have completed a new set of regulations that will effectively stop all new coal-generated power plant construction in the U.S. This edict will be issued at the end of November, 2012. Once they crush coal, they have their chops set on natural gas, especially deep well production, i.e., Marcellus and Utica drilling. They couldn’t stop it in their first term, but they will be on a search and destroy mission if he is re-elected.

  4. God’s will? If God cared about them, they’d live in a much better place than a crappy desert (and the part without oil).

    Fortunately, the election will be decided by real people, rather than fictional deities.

  5. Worried or not, republican or democrat what matters is not the polls, its YOUR VOTE. SO GO VOTE AND MAKE YOUR COUNTRY PROUD.

  6. Lamest PA poll.
    Not only is this an outlier, but was conducted DURING Sandy. It is not even the most recent poll. PPP poll was conducted after this and has Obama +6.

  7. 2/3 of undecided go against challenger. Obama persistantly under 50% – not good and I am worried

  8. Yeah because the PPP poll with +9 Democrats which hasn’t historically happened is accurate.

  9. As a Democrat, this poll had me concerned, until I saw that it was a Susquehanna poll for the Tribune. Given Susquehanna’s ridiculous republican house effect, this is actually a good poll for the President, since the tie probably means the President is up by at least 5 in PA.

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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