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Updated: Poll: Casey 48, Smith 41

Tom Smith is within 7 points of Sen. Bob Casey according to the latest poll by Rasmussen. The competitive numbers come on the heels of a survey yesterday that showed the freshman Senator with a lead more than twice as wide.

Casey leads Smith 48 to 41.

Casey defeated Sen. Rick Santorum in 2006; Smith is a former coal company owner from Armstrong County.

Yesterday’s survey by Public Policy Polling showed Casey with a 49 to 33 percent lead.

Update: The Smith campaign celebrated the Rasmussen poll, calling Casey’s 48 percent “meager.”

“While Senator Casey is well known by the electorate and failing to break 50%, nearly a third of the electorate has yet to formulate an opinion on Tom Smith,” added Smith pollster John McLaughlin.  “As Smith continues to increase his name identification the race will continue to tighten – this race is clearly winnable and will be close.”

Casey spokesman Larry Smar shot back.

“It is way too early to talk about polls considering that most pollsters wouldn’t poll in the race because Tea Party leader Tom Smith’s name ID was so low,” he said. “His camp didn’t put out a press release yesterday when he was down 16 with increasing negatives, but they are in spin overdrive for a poll analysts have called the most inaccurate and biased.”

Rasmussen’s crosstabs, obtained by PoliticsPA, shows a few interesting trends. Casey leads decisively among voters under 40 (56 to 26 percent), African Americans (82 to 18 percent), self-described moderates (57 to 29 percent) and those with a household income over $100,000 (58 to 36 percent).

Smith leads among men (51 to 42 percent), voters ages 40-64 (48 to 44 percent), voters ages 65 and up (56 to 39 percent) and white voters (45 to 43 percent).

The two men are within the margin of error with voters whose an annual household income between $20,000 and $75,000.

Finally, Governor Corbett’s job approval is negative, 51 to 45 percent (12 percent strongly approve, 33 percent somewhat approve, 22 percent somewhat disapprove, and 29 percent strongly disapprove).

Rasmussen polled 500 likely voters on May 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent with a 95% level of confidence. For the most part the firm used automated polling methods; a more detailed explanation of their methodology is here.

28 Responses

  1. Remember acorn, people? That is who Bob Casey works for.Non speaking english teenager girls to be prostitutes sick thats who Bob Casey is.Do you have a dauthter casey does he got to go

  2. Being supportive of teachers is not being supportive of PSEA and other teacher unions which have opposed every education reform in Pennsylvania.

    There are many Union Republicans in Pennsylvania who continue to support unsustainable spending in Pennsylvania. Tom Smith is not one of them. Tom Smith has not gotten any money from any union, including the PSEA. Sen. Bob 98% Casey will be supported with millions and millions of dollars and in kind contributions by the unions.

    Tom Smith – For The Forgotten Taxpayer and those who work, save and invest to make the taxes that Sen.Bob Casey who is in lockstep with every union in Pennsylvania.

    Oddly, it was Tom Smith who had a union card and Bob Casey who has never had a private sector job.

  3. bobguzzardi are you Smith’s campaign manager because it seems like you have all the anwser? I was just wondering…

  4. Are you kidding me?? Tom Smith’s wife and daughter are both long-time teacher union members! So now that his retired wife has her guaranteed pension, he is against the teacher unions? Come on!

    To call the teachers union democratic is ridiculous! Here in Armstrong County, the republicans Sen. Dom White and Rep, Jeff Pyle are very pro- teachers union with Pyle himself double dipping the PSERS. Fund as a former teacher and now a state representative.

    As someone said earlier. Tom Smith is for Tom Smith. Period

  5. Tom Smith is for Vouchers and School Choice, particularly for the poorest kids in worst school districts AND supports conventional government schools?

    Can such a thing be possible. Why yes it can. Despite the Democratic Teacher Unions demonizing vouchers as a stealth vehicle to destroy convention K-12 public schools, many know that is not the case. And Tom Smith proves it. Vouchers are not a scheme to destroy public schools. Vouchers are aimed at kids in worst schools where the need is greatest.

    The program can be expanded but it is hard to see how Vouchers and private schools could compete with existing system.

    Bob Casey and his teacher allies fight to keep poor kids in bad schools. What is the point of that? To save failing schools? For some facts on failing schools see and Pennsylvania has doubled its spending from $13 billion inn1995 to $26 billion to 2011, about 15 years, and has anyone seen an improvement in educational performance? And student enrollment has actually declined since 2000 by 35, 510 while spending increases on administrators.

    Tom Smith is on the right side of every issue.

  6. Tom Smith is for Tom Smith period. He only pretends to care to get what HE wants. He is not prepared in any way to be representing our state in DC

    Casey has experience and has proven himself. He is the best man for the job. No question

  7. John P. is correct. Smith never worked underground. And while he may have been a union member for a short time, I don’t believe he was a union employer.

    Smith’s “humble beginnings” act is getting old. It’s been a long time since Smith”s done any hard work. He uses his money to get whatever he wants. He’s a control freak

    Funny Smith supports vouchers. His wife is a recent retiree of the Armstrong School District collecting one hefty pension. His daughter is a teacher with the Indiana School District. Smith backstabbed his hometown community who fought for two years to get their school reopened after it closed. He and his millionaire friends used their connections with State Senator Don White to stop renovations of that school and interfered with school board elections. Thanks to those actions the district is now building a new high school in Smiths wealthy friends area and raising taxes. Si even though elderton will have no school and their kids will be on thirty mile bus rides to go to another school in the district they will pay taxes for a new school their kids will never attend

    A debate would be wonderful. Let the debate run the way Smith treated former school director Rose Stitt when she debated his clueless wealthy pal Stan Berdell ( it was recorded by the Indiana Armstrong patriots). Smith used $ 2000 to place a full page color as to promote it and made sure there was a circus of a crowd there to boo Mrs Stitt. He was to approve all questions and allowed questions to Mrs Stitt like ” did you even graduate high school?” bit berdell wasn’t asked any of those kinds of questions

    Smiths a snake. I say bring on the debate!

  8. To describe one politician is to describe them all. My choice would have been Sam Rohrer vs Smith, who is PA version of NJ’s Corzine (buying an office). Going for the lesser of two evils I’ll go for Smith over Casey in the hope that Smith will prove to be more than a puppet for the unions, Pelosi, and Reid (Casey’s full time job in the Senate).

  9. Has anyone seen or heard from Casey Jr. in the past five years? I’m not sure that guy even actually exists. Why [or for that matter, HOW] is Smith a Republican? Neither one of these clowns is deserving of a single vote as far as I’m concerned.

    We truly get the government we deserve. Two wings of the same socialist, BIG government party.

    So keep on rockin’ in the “nanny” state!!!

  10. Tom Smith worked in a coal mine. This is an accurate statement of fact. Tom Smith was a Union Coal Miner. Also accurate.

    Bob Casey was neither AND Bob 98% Casey is joined, like a Siamese twin, to Barack Obama who promised to close down coal mines and is doing it.

    UMW leadership is selling out its own workers by supporting ObamaCasey, is it not?

  11. Did you work with him? The photo was taken when he was an owner just to show he did something. Union coalminers are not permitted to take photos inside the mines. I was there and I’m SURE you was not.

  12. As I correctly stated, Tom Smith had a union card and was a member of a Union. Did Bob 98% Casey, or Barack Obama, ever work a farm or in a coal mine, or own a business?

    Don’t coal miners operate coal mining equipment? Not all coal miners work underground although it does appear Tom Smith did.

    There is a photo of him Tom Smith underground. Was that photoshopped?

    He owned the mine and made millions when he sold.

    My facts are accurate.

  13. Smith was a UMWA member for only 3 years and 4 months. He ran frontend loader for Perry Trucking he never worked under ground as a UMWA member like I did, so don’t tell me about how hard he worked. He was the front man for purchasing the mine. Get your facts straight….

  14. In my view, the African American vote will move when Tom Smith starts speaking about Vouchers for the poorest kids trapped in worst, most educationally dysfunctional and criminally dangerous schools in Pennsylvania.

    Because Vouchers won’t save everyone doesn’t mean they won’t save the world for a some who want a chance to get out of unionized government schools which have failed so tragically.

  15. Who is more likely to create jobs and raise our standard of living? Tom Smith who has met a payroll, a tax maker who paid taxes or Bob 98% Casey, whose career is taking taxes and redistributing to favored few.

  16. Tom Smith is a Reform Republican. “Tea Party” has become a pejorative as in “Racist, Misogynist, Homophobic, Islamophobic, stupid bigot”. In fact, The Tea Party is centered on Constitutional Limited Government, Economic Freedom, Separation and Balance of Powers and Personal Responsibility based on Enduring Truths. Surprisingly, Tea Party people, I have found in my experience, are far more tolerant of our sinful ways that the Union thugs who control the state and municipal budgets.

    Tom Smith in a debate will remind voters, repeatedly, that he is a farmer, from humble beginnings, who still lives and works the farm he grew up on, who was a Union coal miner (Bob Casey has never had a union card or belonged to a union), who ‘bet the farm’ on buying a coal mine and when went from union coal miner to coal mine owner. Tom Smith has met a payroll, paid more taxes than he has taken, built a business and created jobs while supplying energy to millions.

    Bob 98% Casey has made a career of spending other people’s money, has never met a payroll or created a job, has never had a private sector job. He has been a government employee all his life and is supported by unions and government employees living off The Forgotten Taxpayer.

    The ObamaCasey agenda has spent TRILLIONS and indebted us for decades. Where are the jobs? Fewer people are working than ever before thanks to ObamaCasey fiscal cluelessness.

    A debate! I look forward with great anticipation.

  17. All Casey has to do is debate Smith and Smiths poll numbers will drop like a rock. Smith is Clueless.

  18. This is very telling. Smith is the new comer and Casey is the incumbent. Tom Smith should have no problem making up the difference between now and November. Tom Smith is exactly the man we need to represent us in DC!

  19. The key this fall will be turn out.

    Also, you did not mention which way the Hispanic vote is going.

  20. Casey is in trouble. I think Tom Smith is a breath of fresh air and will win.

  21. Editor:

    Umm… try replacing “sometimes” with “also”. Current wording makes it sound like PPP is accused more often.

    ” PPP does frequent work for Democrats and is accused by detractors of being left-leaning; Rasmussen is sometimes accused by detractors of being right-leaning.”

  • Understanding that basic education funding should/will be first, what should be the next highest priority for the General Assembly?

    • Raising The Minimum Wage (25%)
    • Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana (24%)
    • None of the above. Something Else. (20%)
    • Economic Development (14%)
    • Higher Education (8%)
    • Public Transportation (8%)
    • Workforce Opportunities and Innovation (2%)

    Total Voters: 51

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