Updated: Rasmussen Poll: Casey 49, Smith 38

Smith, left, and Casey

Senator Bob Casey leads GOP challenger Tom Smith according to the latest survey from Rasmussen.

The freshman Democrat lead Smith, a former coal company owner and Tea Party leader, 49 percent to 38 with 9 percent undecided.

Update: Here are the crosstabs.

Casey leads among men (53 to 41 percent) and women (46 to 36 percent) and most of the other groups surveyed.

Smith leads among voters ages 40 to 64 (48 to 43 percent), white voters (45 to 42 percent), voters making between $20K and $40K per year (46 to 44 percent) and voters making over $100K per year (47 to 43 percent).

Casey is viewed favorably by 56 percent of voters surveyed, unfavorable by 34 percent and 10 percent said they weren’t sure. Smith’s favorables are 41 percent positive, 29 percent negative and 29 percent are unsure.

Other numbers on the poll include opinions on the health care law. Voters believe it will be bad for the country by a 49 to 42 percent margin, and favor its repeal by a similar margin of 50 to 45 percent. Casey, who voted for the law, is actually ahead among voters who somewhat favors its repeal by a wide margin: 46 to 21 percent.

There is silver lining for the Republican: some of Casey’s lead comes from the segments of the population that know the least about Smith. 23 percent of those who somewhat favor repealing Obamacare, 17 percent of younger voters, and 17 percent of lower income voters are undecided.

On the economy, 30 percent of voters believe things are improving compared to 47 percent who believe things are getting worse.

It’s also the latest of a number of polls that put Governor Tom Corbett’s job approval in double digit negative territory. Those with an unfavorable view of the Guv outnumber those who support his job thus far by a 20 point margin, 57 to 37 percent. 35 percent of voters disapprove strongly of his performance compared to just 10 percent who approve strongly. 27 percent somewhat approve, 22 percent somewhat disapprove.

It’s actually a slight tick down for Smith from the firm’s previous poll of the race in May. Then Casey lead Smith by just 7 points, 48 to 41. Most public polling has shown the race with about a 14 point spread in Casey’s favor.

The pollster talked to 500 likely voters on July 18, 2010. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

July 23rd, 2012 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Senate, Top Stories | 14 Comments

14 thoughts on “Updated: Rasmussen Poll: Casey 49, Smith 38”

  1. Steve (Bucks County, PA) says:

    Once Casey voted for Obamacare, to me, I could not vote for him in the next election. This is the only chance to overturn it.

  2. fightinggranny says:

    Casey has lost the Catholic vote, because of his and Obamas attacks on the Church. We can’t wait to repeal what is called Obamacare. He believes in abortion, has voted us trillions of debt. He, like Obama, has a record to run on, and it’s not good, 98% with the destructive Dems. He believes in enslaving his constituents, not empowering them. I met Tom Smith; he’s a great down to earth, self made man (criticized by Obama and Casey) willing to work for the citizens, like Toomey. Toomey and Smith a winning team for PA.

  3. Mary says:

    Tom Smith, a hard working “hands on type of guy” will be our next U.S. Senator. Sorry staffer, but that’s a fact.

  4. Casey staffer says:

    Casey is going to destroy Smith.

  5. John P says:

    @ Jack – That sounds like personal attacks your spitting out. Thats all the Extreme Right Wing does is tear down their opponant just to try and make them selfs look better that they are. That kind of campaign doesn’t work.

  6. Jack says:

    He’s not winning big in polls right now and nobody knows his opponent. Bobby and his idol Barack are going down in November. Bobby will probably be relieved when he does lose. Pat Toomey has overshadowed him big time since he arrived in 2011. The “Bitter Clingers” are going to rise up in November. Casey loses the Catholic vote by 20 points, he can no longer keep up his charade of being a Good Irish Catholic”. He may be Irish , he is no longer Catholic. He worhips at the alter of Barack Obama and the State.

  7. John P says:

    @Jack – Ya right he still spent $3.8 million on TV which everyone seen Statewide. Casey BIG in November…

  8. Rick says:

    Sen. Casey has done a lot for Pennsylvanians. He voted against the Free Trade Deals with South Korea, Columbia and Panama. He has fought for expansion of the children’s health insurance program, and expanded unemployment during tough times. The remark about no bills is right out of a Smith press release.

  9. Jack says:

    @John P: Smith hasn’t spent a dime in the General genius. As soon as his campaign starts telling the story of Bobby and Barack and the love they share for one another the “Bitter Clingers” of PA are going to throw them both out on the street.

  10. John P says:

    Smith spent $3.8 million dollars in the primary thats more than a dime.

  11. Jack says:

    The Tom Smith Campaign has to be smiling. They have not spent a dime, nobody knows who he is and he is within striking distance. In the end I see Smith squeeking this out. Casey is tied too close to Obama. The atmosphere outside of Philly and Montco is toxic for Dems. Casey will lose alot of his Catholic support with vote for Omama Care and against defunding Planned Parenthood. He’s proven himself to be pro-choice by those votes.

  12. TNardi says:

    Those cross-tabs are weird. He is winning men by more than he is winning women? Women usually lean more Democratic than men, and dramatically so at times.

    Strange. I would give Casey the clear edge too. Hard to see Tom Smith winning this one, unless he pours in a lot more of his money.

  13. Aaron says:

    Casey did nothing in the senate and yet He in the lead. Please check casey record and he the third in earning from lawyers and lobbyists with wealth of $1,313,717 dollars and pass zero bills to become law .

  14. Molly P says:

    Casey is a do nothing incumbent! He just sits back and votes for whatever Harry Reid & Obama want him to vote for.
    Vote for Tom Smith in November!

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