PAGOP Poll: Romney by 4, Smith by 2

A poll commissioned by the Pa. Republican Party has, unsurprisingly, good news for Pa.’s statewide Republican candidates. Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by 4 points, 49 percent to 45. Tom Smith leads Sen. Bob Casey 48 percent to 46.

It’s the first poll of any kind to show either man in the lead. It was conducted by Susquehanna Polling Research, a firm that frequently poll on behalf of GOP candidates and causes.

SP&R surveyed 1,376 likely voters between Oct. 11 and 13 via automatic dials.

The firm poll’s rollout was a bit bumpy. SP&R apparently intended to give the numbers exclusively to The Washington Examiner, but also accidentally tweeted the results and then deleted the tweet.

The Pa. Republican Party also sent out an email about the poll, which a spokesperson said was commissioned by the PAGOP.

“Not only have we closed the gap in Pennsylvania, but a new Susquehanna poll shows Governor Romney is now leading by 4 points – but more is needed!” wrote PAGOP Chair Rob Gleason in a fundraising email Thursday. “We must clinch this race for our Romney-Ryan team and lend them our 20 electoral votes. A Romney win in Pennsylvania and this race is over!”

According to a Real Clear Politics average of Pa. polling, Obama leads by 5 points: 49.7 percent to 44.7 percent for Romney. The RCP average does not include this or any polls commissioned by partisan entities.

As with all internal polls, this should be taken with a grain of salt. In addition to the obvious fundraising tie-in, the PAGOP has a direct interest in keeping its volunteers and supporters engaged in the race. Even if Romney loses Pa., Republican turnout will affect other races.


There are two major ways to poll. The first is to conduct surveys in relative proportion to population demographics like age, geography, race, gender, etc. Then, when all that matches the population at large, let respondents give their own party identification.

The second is to include quotas for party ID along with other demographic information. Those party quotas are based on turnout estimates.

SP&R’s pollster James Lee has explained that his firm uses a turnout model based on 2004, when George W. Bush came within 2.5 points of beating John Kerry in Pa.

In this poll, 48 percent of respondents identified as Republicans and 42 percent as Democrats.

However, even if you believe that SP&R is slanted toward the right (and many people do, as their polls have consistently shown Romney doing better in Pa. than other contemporary polls have), SP&R’s trend line is clear.

Here’s a look at the firm’s recent polls for President.

Oct. 4-6: Obama 47, Romney 45
Sept. 18-20: Obama 47, Romney 45
Sept. 15-17: Obama 48, Romney 47
July 19-23: Obama 46, Romney 43

And here’s a look at their recent polls for U.S. Senate:

Oct. 4-6: Casey 46, Smith 44
Sept. 18-20: Casey 46, Smith 41
Sept. 15-17: Casey 45, Smith 42

26 Responses

  1. Did you see Bathhouse Barry at the Al Smith banquet? He looks terrible, almost a jaundiced look to him. It’s time to send him to the $35 million dollar mansion his cronies are buying for him in Hawaii.

  2. If you think these polls are rigged then why so fired up? The winds are blowing. What they bring is the question. These races will be closer then thought.

  3. bobguzardia, a) the inquirer was bought by GOP backers Toll, Tierney & co. years ago.
    nothing else you say has any basis in fact or reality.

  4. It will be interesting to see how the Catholic vote goes. Archbishop seems to understand that Core Catholic Values are being challenged. The question is which is more important to Catholics, their Unions or their God.

    I have some hope Jews are coming to their senses. One hopes and the Republican Jewish Coalition has been doing a great job.

  5. Jimmie Lee has exposed his work to public accountability. Many will assess results and determine if he is a partisan hack or is badly mistaken in assessing the demographics of likely voters. In either case, his work will lose credibility.

    On the other hand, if he turns out to be prescient, his reputation and business including financial compensation will be enhanced.

    I have heard Jimmie Lee present and although he polls exclusively for Republicans, I do not think he is a partisan hack and his memo makes a good case for his methodology.

    Other nonpublic polls seem to confirm his findings.

    And the Undecideds, less than three weeks from election, are, I think, uncommonly high. I am not sure what Undecided numbers are historically so I can’t say whether they are higher or lower than historic norm.

    We shall see.

    Dave Diano seems be treated as a profit in his own land.

    I am watching the AG race and I would have thought SanduskyCorbettFreed and 32 years of One Party Rule would have widened margin and yet Freed seems to be closing. I had hoped that Kane would have tried to peel off some RedState voters but she seems to be running to her base with Democratic policy points rather than Law and Order credentials, of independence from party leadership, and independence from unions. I feel your pain, Dave.

  6. As a fellow Catholic, I have been extremely disappointed by his judgment. From his trusting of Obama that Obamacare would not cover abortion (untrue), to his votes to keep Planned Parenthood funded even after the extensive coverage of their criminal activities, his votes have shown an empty promise of his “prolife” posistion.
    as Archbishop Chaput has pointed out, someone being pro choice is a non starter for any candidate for his vote, and the same is true for me.
    Talker Casey out, hardworking honorable Smith in.

  7. John (with no last name)-

    I knew Sestak couldn’t beat Toomey AND that it would waste millions of Democratic $$$, and cost us nationally in other Senate races that would wind up underfunded. There was no way that Sestak could survive a cut-throat primary that left the winner bankrupt against a fully funded Toomey. Specter had $10 million cash-on-hand before the primary. Not a dime got spend against Toomey.
    1/10th of what was wasted on Sestak would have put Russ Feingold over the top. So, Sestak cost us as least two Senate seats, for a 4-vote swing.

    Actually, Sestak shouldn’t have been able to beat Specter. I found out, after the race, that the Specter campaign just hadn’t taken Sestak seriously at the beginning, when they had the chance to put him away. They were looking too far ahead to the fight against Toomey.

    However, before the race, the Specter campaign actually ignored my computer advice that would have stopped Sestak cold. Under PA Dem rules, Sestak would have been locked-out of using the PA Dems voter database system if Specter’s team had used it. The reason being that Specter was the incumbent, and they always refuse to sell their system to challengers. I had even extracted an official ruling on this point several months before Sestak announced, and was dying to pull the trigger on it.

    Unfortunately, I was unable to convince the Specter team to spend the $60,000 needed to gain exclusive access to the data. Since they didn’t make use of the database, this provided a loophole for Sestak to gain access (and the party wasn’t going to turn away $60,000 after Specter didn’t bite). Had Specter’s team listened to me, Sestak would have been completely screwed, as there was no other viable PA voter database for him to purchase.

  8. David Diano has conducted his own poll…and it shows that Arlen Specter will win PA easily as a write-in. Everyone in PA loves Arlen…David Diano knows this! David Diano has his finger on the pulse of Pennsylvanians and has never, ever backed a loser before.

  9. Umm…. to all the Tea-Baggers who want to believe a single outlier poll, over all the other polls and accuse all the other polls of being party of some liberal conspiracy…

    I hope you will all come back here after the election, when Casey wins by 7-10 points, and eat your tri-cornered hats.

  10. This is nothing but a cooked poll to tell the GOP what they want to hear…It would be no different if some Democratic operative made up a poll showing Obama leading in Alabama or Tennesse….

    Obama has been leading by double digits in PA since April, a right wing polling outfit isn’t going to change that….

  11. Tom Crowell- Did you see the Inquirer story about them being bought out by Democrat Party Boss George Norcross? Their poll has been an outlier this entire time as well.

  12. Hey Marcia, you said you were from Westmoreland County?? Yeah, that explains a lot!!

  13. Got to love this message board format… Casey, Vote, and Vote for Bob are all the same person.

  14. I believe in Senator Bob Casey. Bob is the only man for the job of senator who will talk with both sides.

    Bob you do not need millions of dollars hanging out your pockets for my family to vote for you. We support you and will be voting for you in November.

    Vote for Bob Casey and make this state a better place.
    Mr Smith does not have a platform and he is not a politician.

  15. My friend asked if I would take her to the voting building. I said yes that I would and I hope that each and everyone of you do the same. Help you family, friend, and neighbor to the voting building. We need your support to win this race to re-elect the honorable man for PA.

    Thanks for your support. I know that from experience especially in church voting that one vote counts in passing an important issue. So get out and make this the best election for supporting Senator Bob Casey.

  16. Senator Bob Casey will win re-election by 7 points over Tom Smith.

    Vote for Casey because he is honest, respectable, moral, and a family man.

    Please listen to the Senator because God knows that he is the righteous man for the job. I will be praying everyday many times a day that you remain in the senate because you are the one who works for the people of PA.

  17. The Obama Administration Covered Up and then the President straight out lied in the debate. Even Candy Crawley who assisted the President has said the Administration had two weeks telling us it was the tape and a riot gone wild. The Internet is a Committee of Correspondence and the Romney and Smith messages are getting through the fog

    Benghazi: spontaneous protest over video v planned. Islamist attack
    President Obama misled the American people on Libya. This American Crossroads video gets to the bottom of it — piece by ugly piece.

  18. Obama gonna win by 95%!!!! All minorities, Vote for Obama and get your Obama Phone!!! Keep Obama in PResident, you know? He gave us a phone, he gonna do more!!

  19. Did you hear Obama’s Benghazi comments from his talk-show gig today. “When 4 Americans get killed, that’s not optimal”. What a foolish and disgraceful person he is and I pray that he is defeated by Mitt Romney.

  20. The news is positive, but Romney and Smith must be relentless. I virtually see and hear little support or respect for Obama and Casey (the Invisible Senator) in Westmoreland County (my residence). If the Democrat machine in Philadelphia does a cost benefit analysis and finds it too expensive to buy off voters, then Romney and Smith may have a chance.

  21. Actually Methodology of the poll:

    Press 1) For “severely conservative” Mitt Romney
    Press 2) For “moderate” Mitt
    Press 3) For Republican
    Press 4) For “some black guy from Kenya”

    And, they didn’t call any numbers in Philadelphia.

Comments are closed.

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