The Washington Post’s The Fix rated Pennsylvania number 6 on its latest list of Governorships most likely to change party control. It’s a promotion from number 8 last time.

Their rationale: Allyson Schwartz and recent poll numbers

Here is the write-up:

6. Pennsylvania (R): Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D) says it is her “intention” to challenge Gov. Tom Corbett (R) next year. That gives Democrats a top recruit against the incumbent, who polls show is vulnerable to a strong challenge. We’re moving Pennsylvania up the line to reflect these realities. (Previous ranking: 8)

Number one in the country is Florida (R), followed by Maine (R), Arkansas (D), Rhode Island (I) and Virginia (R).

10 of the 15 states listed have Republican Governors at present, and the coming cycle will offer an interesting competition between two general lines of thinking. The first is that 2014, being a President’s second midterm, will favor the opposition party (the GOP). The second is that 2010 was such a wave year that, barring a large shift, many blue states that elected GOP Govs will revert to normal trends.

In Pa., Corbett has the midterm factor on his side as well as the state’s history of electing Governors for consecutive terms. Against him, as the Fix noted, are polls and several potent Democrats.