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What Do HD-140 Results Show Us For November?

“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

Irish statesman Edmund Burke is often misquoted as having said it, while British statesman Winston Churchill wrote, “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

Now that the special election for the 140th Legislative District is over and a winner has been determined – see, Jim Prokopiak – what have we learned?

PoliticsPA took a data dive into the lower Bucks County district and looked at the five most recent elections that had an impact on the Commonwealth.

  • 2020 Presidential
  • 2022 Governor
  • 2022 U.S. Senate
  • 2023 PA Supreme Court
  • 2024 HD-140 Special

 

The 140th District, comprising Falls Township, Morrisville, Tullytown and parts of Middletown Township, has been Democratic-leaning for years.

Prokopiak outperformed newly-elected Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justice Dan McCaffery in 32 of the 33 precincts, while also topping Gov. Josh Shapiro in all but one precinct – Falls Township 2-2.

Can this be taken as an indicator for the remainder of Bucks County? We probably want to slow our roll.

While Prokopiak, a Pennsbury School Board member, received more than 60 percent of the vote in 31 of the 33 precincts, his experience in the area as a Levittown attorney also contributed to his victory, as Cabanas just recently moved to the area from Lancaster County. The contributions of the DLCC also played a role, but its impact may have been minimal.

President Joe Biden won the county in 2020 with 51.7 percent of the vote. Shapiro dominated the county with a 59.0% share, while Sen. John Fetterman captured Bucks with 52.4 percent. But it should not go unnoticed that a trio of Republicans were successful in 2022 – Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (55.0%), and state Sens. Frank Ferry (53.3%) and Jarrett Coleman (55.8%). And in the state House races, the 10 contests were evenly divided at five apiece.

The county will remain among the most purple in the Commonwealth and will be a focus of the major campaigns as we head toward the fall.

5 Responses

  1. As long as one party votes for a month and the other votes on one day (when it snows) the result is predictable. The old orange man loser cult strikes again.

    1. Yes, another MAGA Carpetbagger, like Dr. Oz and now soon McCormick, bites the dust. Finally, the Democrats are getting organized and now we can say that we are finally able to reject the Null Hypothesis of Will Rogers who said that “I don’t belong to any organized political party. I am a registered Democrat.” When Democrats are unified and organized, with more registered Democrats than Republicans, with a clear message, we win. It is that simple. It is not “rocket science.”

      1. “I don’t know who started the idea that a President must be a Politician instead of a Business man. A Politician can’t run any other kind of business. So there is no reason why he can run the U.S. That’s the biggest single business in the World.”
        Will Rogers

        1. Just not a Failed business man with eight bankruptcies and a hundred collection lawsuits in his “business” history. That is never gonna happen again.

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