Who will be PA’s Most Vulnerable Congressman in 2014?

PA saw just one party flip in our congressional delegation this year, and most incumbents won by a comfortable margin. Republicans have won every competitive seat in the state; the only Democrats who remain represent safe D seats. With that in mind, PoliticsPA wants to know, which incumbent has the most to worry about in a general election?

Who is the most vulnerable to a general election challenge in 2014?

  • PA-12: Keith Rothfus (45%)
  • PA-8: Mike Fitzpatrick (20%)
  • PA-11: Lou Barletta (8%)
  • PA-15: Charlie Dent (7%)
  • PA-3: Mike Kelly (6%)
  • PA-7: Pat Meehan (6%)
  • PA-6: Jim Gerlach (5%)
  • PA-10: Tom Marino (3%)

Total Voters: 705

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15 Responses

  1. This gerrymandered congressional map of Pennsylvania is criminal. Our only hope for fair representation is some sort of court action and then a redistricting. Look at the map folks….insanity.

  2. There are no vulnerable members in the congressional delegation. They will all be re-elected in 2014 barring a retirement or ethics scandal.

  3. There’s a couple of districts that are close enough in registration, such as PA 11 and PA 8, where the incumbent can be bounced.

    It depends on candidate recruitment. Barletta was able to cruise because he was running against someone who couldn’t raise money and do what you have to do to win. If you put someone against him who has held, or holds office, and had an effective fundraising apparatus, he can be beaten. He’s not exactly the sharpest tool in the shed and his anti immigration platform is waning in its popularity.

  4. If I decided to call somebody “dumber than dirt”, I would probably make sure that I had the person’s name spelled correctly.

    And keep that Korean car dig in mind when you’re going door to door. I’m sure that Kelly giving car buyers a choice between Cadillacs, Chevys and Hyundais will be a real deal-breaker for the voters. (NOT)

  5. Mike Kelley is batshit nuts and is well known as having a very mercurial temper. One minute he’s backslapping and the next he’s yelling at you and being a total ass. He’s also dumber than dirt. Can’t wait to work for his opponent next time and help send Kelley back to his Used Car Lot to sell more Korean cars.

  6. I would like to see Rick Dougherty run again with almost no money he had a better percentage than some who had hundreds of thousands to run with.
    Dent did not do well against this underfinanced candidate.
    A moderate Democrat can win in Dents district.

  7. The most vulnerable – to both democrats and respiratory illness – is antebellum war relic Joe Pitts. Against a no-name no-funds opponent, Pitts failed to crack 55%. Joe Pitts is so old he actually thought the Kane running for statewide office was Charles Foster Kane.

    Pitts is so cantankerous he should have been cast opposite Walter Matthau in Grumpy Old Men. GOP should dump the old man before he is Gekas’d.

  8. Fitzpatrick is practically a safe seat. He barely lost in a heavily Democratic year and only lost because Murphy was a unique candidate and he had NE Phila in his district. Plus, there is nobody with name recognition or popularity in Bucks to challenge him. They only person close is Diane Marseglia.

  9. I suspect we will go at least 12-6 if not 13-5 most of the decade. Altmire might be able to win PA-12.

  10. Mark Critz political career is over! He walked into a seat, he didn’t work for it and when he got there he did nothing!
    He lost by his biggest margin to date and has shown democrats he will betray them just to win. He is a very poor representation of Murtha for so many reasons. If Murtha were alive I doubt he would have voted for him!


  11. How about a “none of the above” option?
    We’re going to have a 13-5 delegation for the decade, folks. Get used to it. 🙂

  12. Depends on how much larger the Latino population is in Allentown in two years, and how much the rest of Dent’s new Republican turf shrinks in population.

  13. Well the problem is Keith Rothfus did not start congress yet he valuable already even he did not step in the capital but if he is courup in the first two years i hoped mark critz will retake his seat in 2014

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