WSJ Poll: Independent Voters Now Leaning Democrat in Midterm Elections

Independent Voters

While the tide has not completely shifted under the feet of Republicans, it does appear clear that Democrats are in better shape than initially anticipated as the general election campaign shifts into high gear over Labor Day weekend.

What was once seen as a tsunami of a red wave, given historical trends for the party in power in the White House during midterms, has shifted due to the Dobbs decision by the Supreme Court, declining gas prices, improved views of the performance of President Joe Biden, and gains among independent voters.

A Wall Street Journal poll of 1,313 registered voters nationwide does show favorable trends for the GOP, as those that think the country is headed in the right direction fell three points from 26 to 23 percent since the last poll in March. In addition, the percentage of respondents that felt good about the economy fell four points to 35 percent from 39%.

Other markers in the poll, however, showed improving conditions of the Democrats, as three in 10 responses said the economy was headed in the right direction – up six points from March. And the generic ballot question provided the Democrats with more reasons to feel good entering the holiday weekend, as Dems were preferred 47-44 over their GOP opponents – an eight-point swing since the March poll that gave Republicans a 46-41 advantage.

Among political independents, typically the key to victory in close elections, more voters now favor a Democratic candidate for Congress than a Republican, 38% to 35%. In March, Republicans led among independents by 12 percentage points.

“Male independents did not really change,” said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who was former President Donald Trump’s lead campaign pollster in 2016 and 2020. “Female independents, because of the abortion issue, changed their opinions and their votes.’’

Biden’s favorability rating jumped four points from 41 to 45%, rising seven points from minus-15 in March to minus-8. In comparison, Trump saw his favorability mark drop five points to minus-19.

On the performance approval question, Biden’s numbers also moved three points from 42 to 45%, while Trump’s approval number of the job he did in the White House fell 44 percent from 48%

Also telling was the response to the question, “Regardless of the importance of the issue to you, which of the following issues has made you MORE likely to vote in the upcoming Congressional election in November?”

More than one-in-three (34%) responded that the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade was their primary driver, followed by inflation and rising prices at 28 percent.

“Republicans were cruising, and Democrats were having a hard time,” said Fabrizio, who conducted the survey along with Democrat John Anzalone. “It’s almost like the abortion issue came along and was kind of like a defibrillator to Democrats.”

The Wall Street Journal poll of 1,313 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, was conducted Aug. 17-25 by Impact Research and Fabrizio, Lee & Associates.

11 Responses

  1. WSJ polls are garbage push polls with registered voter samples. The kind of poll that the lefties at PoliticsPA loves. The Dems are whistling past the graveyard again.

    1. BINGO. Media (who are full of Dems) is just trying to cover for the Dems like they tried in 2010. It’ll fail now like it’ll fail then. Red Tsunami a’comin’!

    2. Bet you can’t wait for that Rasmussen poll to come out. That’s the one where they poll Fox News emoyees. Now thats a valid poll? 😂😂😂

  2. It’s clear Republicans are now the dog that caught the car. Abortion most likely for 95 percent of the public will not be involved in the process but R’s made it a be all and end all issue and will send Dems to the Senate in an off year. R’s now have decided to make having a stroke political. Similar to the incompetent political skills of Doug Mastriano with a rapidly aging and many out of shape baby boomers—bringing up strokes is unwise. Look around you and there are quite a few people not in good shape. So, thinking this topic to be political gold is questionable.

    1. Having a stroke and not being physically or mentally fit for office is certainly a legitimate issue in an election.

  3. Repubs can thank the Federalist Society and Sam Alito for handing Congress to the Dems for another term. Those arrogant uber-catholics, under orders from fascist catholic Leonard Leo – WAY overstepped what the public would stand for. John Roberts TRIED to show them a way to do it without riling the populace – but they were ALL too stupid to take the long view.

    The article omits anothe YUGE reason independents are moving D: they are sick of the Trump cultists and the Big Lie that morons like Mastriano keep peddling. Smarter candidates – like Blake Masters and ever Witchdoctor Oz – have scrubbed all mention of Trump from their websites. But that’s too little too late – there are hours of TV clips of them sucking up to Trump and MAGA talking points. There’s only a few states in the country that will work in – and none of them will help the GOP take the House or Senate.

    Republicans really snatched Defeat from the jaws of Victory in 2022.

  4. Of course they are. Ding Dong Doug is the most radical, out of touch Governor candidate ever nominated by any party. Oz is just a wealthy celebrity that wants a hobby as an elected official.

    Republicans need to regroup and completely jettison Trump and all of his enablers.

    1. Completely agree. A fat troll communist who lived off his parents for 5 decades, has a stroke and can’t talk, and won’t talk about policies or his breaking senate rules as Lt. Gov is demolishing in polls. Republicans shit the bed.

      1. Hyperbole.

        Communist? Which party sent eight of its congressional leaders to Soviet Russia on the Fourth of July in 2918?

        Five decades? Interesting that he is only 53 years old and certainly could not have learned about that philosophy before he was in high school.

        That is called hyperbole. Look it up.

        1. Um. I didn’t say he was a communist for 53 years. I said he lived off his parents for 5 decades. Why don’t you slow down and read.
          Redirecting communism labels was a nice touch- I see he still isn’t debating on policies and his lemmings can’t either.

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