A new poll commissioned by the York Dispatch shows Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) with a narrow edge over Democratic challenger Eugene DePasquale in the race in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District. 

The survey conducted by Pulse Research shows 44.7% of voters say they will “definitely” or were “leaning towards” voting for Perry, while 38.4% of likely voters say they will “definitely” or were “leaning towards” backing DePasquale. The poll shows Perry’s 6 point lead is beyond the margin of error, although John Marling, president of Pulse Research, told The York Dispatch that the race is a “toss-up.”  The poll interviewed 1,100 voters in the district from Aug. 18 to Sept. 3 and has a ± 2.9% margin of error. 

The analysis from the York Dispatch added that the 10% of undecided voters “could ultimately decide the race.” 5.2% of undecided voters said they were leaning towards supporting DePasquale, while 1.5% of the undecideds said that they were leaning towards voting for Perry. 

Marling described the polling on undecided voters as his number one “takeaway” for the data. 

Perry’s campaign declined to comment, citing a policy that they will not comment on any polling. DePasquale’s campaign believes the polling shows that the incumbent York County Republican is vulnerable. 

“We agree with the pollster who conducted this poll that this race is a “toss up,” said Kunal Atit, DePasquale Campaign Communications Director. “Congressman Perry is vulnerable, and as voters get to know Eugene, his support continues to grow.”

Atit added that voters will continue to get to know DePasquale’s “record of independent reform” while serving as Auditor General.

Polling also shows that former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 3 points, 45.7-to-42, in the district, while 7.5% remain undecided. In 2016, these boundaries supported Trump by nearly 10 points over Sec. Hillary Clinton.

DePasquale’s campaign has released two polls this cycle that show them neck and neck in the race. A survey commissioned by DePasquale’s campaign and conducted by GBAO in late August to early September showed the challenger leading Perry by 4 points, 50-to-46.  In late May, a few days before the state’s primary, they conducted a poll that showed Perry leading DePasquale by 3 points, 50-to-47. 

A trio of national ratings outlets have this currently rated as the tightest congressional race this fall. Inside Elections lists the race in PA10 as Tilt Republican, while Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report have it as a Toss-Up.