By Alex Roarty
PoliticsPA Staff Writer
roarty@politicspa.com

SCRANTON – Chris Doherty will have far fewer resources than some of his Democratic gubernatorial rivals, and his name identification starts among the lowest in the field. In the five-man primary race, the Scranton mayor is undoubtedly the underdog.

But the gubernatorial candidate, sitting in a downtown coffee shop here a half-hour before the grand opening of his campaign’s headquarters down the street, says he sees a clear path to victory on May 18.

“The winner of this race will be in the low 30s, high 20s,” said Doherty, alluding to the fact he and his four opponents could easily split the party’s primary vote.

“You don’t need 51 percent.”

Doherty and his advisers are counting on the mayor’s tangible achievements in Scranton, which they say includes creating jobs that have helped turned out the once-beleaguered city, to appeal to voters hungry for economic improvement statewide. In a race experts consider wide open among the five candidates, gaining an ounce of traction and momentum could propel him to capture just enough of vote.

“The race doesn’t have a dominant figure,” said Chris Borick, a pollster at Muhlenberg College.

With an electorate angry about the country’s economy and state government’s deficiencies, somebody who appears different than the average candidate might gain more traction than usual, the analyst said.

“Something that looks a little different, something that looks a little fresh, something that seems to be a good story, might have an interesting niche,” Borick said.

Raising enough money to introduce himself and his message to voters is Doherty’s biggest challenge.

Some of his opponents won’t have that problem. Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, whose message like Doherty’s centers on revitalizing an urban area, has raised about $8 million for his campaign. Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox could easily spend twice that much out of his personal fortune, probably more.

Auditor General Jack Wagner has the benefit of higher name ID because of his two prior statewide campaigns. Even Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel, who said he raised only about $400,000 last year, has the benefit of having his base of support in the voter-rich southeast.

Doherty admitted openly he won’t have as much money as Knox or Onorato. When asked if he’d have more than Hoeffel’s $400,000, he demurred.

“We’ll be all right,” he said, noting that a report on his campaign finance is due at the end of the month.

Raising enough money to run TV spots statewide is critical for any statewide gubernatorial campaign. But Doherty’s advisers see a scenario in which two of the other candidates, particularly Knox and Onorato, cancel out each other’s financial advantage.

A similar situation happened in the 2007 Philadelphia mayoral race, according to Mark Nevins, Doherty’s senior strategist. Knox, then running for mayor, and U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah engaged in a heated battle over the city’s airwaves. The negative campaign eventually weakened both candidates, allowing City Council member Michael Nutter to earn a surprise victory.

The Democratic primary could see of a replay of that scenario between its two wealthiest campaigns.

“Potentially, I think the Knox and Onorato campaigns could go hammer and tongs,” Nevins said.

Complicating that path to victory is Wagner’s and Hoeffel’s presence. Wagner is a very well-known figure among Democratic officials and, as auditor general, can speak credibly about the state’s issues. Hoeffel, a former U.S. Senate candidate and southeast congressman, has staked out a position as the race’s progressive. Former Allegheny County Coroner Cyril Wecht is also reportedly considering a campaign.

But Doherty thinks the job-creation message his campaign has emphasized can trump his opponents’ on an even playing field.

“Pennsylvania today is very similar to what Scranton was eight years ago,” he said, echoing a similar refrain on the campaign trail.

The mayor, wearing a fleece over his shirt and tie that was emblazoned with his city’s emblem, pointed to the coffee shop where PoliticsPA interviewed him as a sign of the turnaround. He said a loan offered by the city helped start the business, which on a late weekday afternoon was filled with students from the nearby University of Scranton.

Pennsylvania faces similar problems as Scranton did, he said, just on a much bigger scale.

Many political observers are waiting for the Democratic field to thin out as the primary approaches, and the drop-out speculation has fixed on Doherty for some. He hinted to the Daily News late last year that he might be amenable to running as lieutenant governor.Asked if he’s considering second-billing on a ticket now, Doherty flatly answers “no.”

“The more I campaign, the better feedback I get,” he said.

The last gubernatorial poll, conducted by Rasmussen in mid-October, shows Doherty earning just 6 percent of the vote among likely Democratic voters. Onorato attracts 19 percent support, with 37 percent of the voters undecided.

Borick said Doherty’s chances lie in his ability to gain energy for his campaign outside the northeast, acquiring enough support to “cobble together” votes for victory.

“He’s not going to be able to do the mass campaign tactics that Dan Onorato or Knox can put up there,” he said. “He’s gotta rely on the difference of his story compared to everybody else, and hope that’s appealing.”

Doherty has his own prediction for how the race will turn out.

“I win, in a landslide going away,” he said, laughing.

“I think it will be interesting. I think the candidates will dictate the race.”