FiveThirtyEight Launches PA Primary Forecasts
In the Democratic primary, the commonwealth holds 210 total delegates while in the GOP primary PA has 71 total delegates.
Since the state will be such a huge contest, FiveThirtyEight has launched their PA forecast.
Their polling average has Trump at 32.5%, Kasich at 22.3% and 18.6% for Cruz.
They project that Trump will finish first with 39.2%, followed by Kasich with 30.5% and Cruz with 25.6%. At the moment, the polls show Trump with a 65% shot at winning while the Ohio Governor sits at 23% and the Texas Senator 13%.
Under their polls-plus forecast, though, Trump’s chances fall to 46% and Cruz has a better chance (28%) at victory than Kasich (26%).
That same polls-plus forecast predicts that Trump will take 34.9%, Cruz 30.9% and Kasich 29.6%.
Over on the other side of the aisle, Clinton has the advantage in the polling average over Sanders 53.1% to 27.9%.
FiveThirtyEight’s projects Clinton will receive 61.1% of the vote against Sanders’ 35.3%. The polls give the former Secretary of State a 91% chance of victory while the Vermont Senator’s odds are at just 9%.
Using the polls-plus forecast, Hillary has a whopping 96% chance of winning against Bernie’s 4%. It also predicts she will get 65.8% of the vote while he’ll get 30.6%.
The primary is set for April 26th.