FiveThirtyEight Launches PA Primary Forecasts

ballotPennsylvania is one of the biggest prizes left in the Presidential primary process.

In the Democratic primary, the commonwealth holds 210 total delegates while in the GOP primary PA has 71 total delegates.

Since the state will be such a huge contest, FiveThirtyEight has launched their PA forecast.

GOP Primary

Their polling average has Trump at 32.5%, Kasich at 22.3% and 18.6% for Cruz.

They project that Trump will finish first with 39.2%, followed by Kasich with 30.5% and Cruz with 25.6%. At the moment, the polls show Trump with a 65% shot at winning while the Ohio Governor sits at 23% and the Texas Senator 13%.

Under their polls-plus forecast, though, Trump’s chances fall to 46% and Cruz has a better chance (28%) at victory than Kasich (26%).

That same polls-plus forecast predicts that Trump will take 34.9%, Cruz 30.9% and Kasich 29.6%.

Democratic Primary

Over on the other side of the aisle, Clinton has the advantage in the polling average over Sanders 53.1% to 27.9%.

FiveThirtyEight’s projects Clinton will receive 61.1% of the vote against Sanders’ 35.3%. The polls give the former Secretary of State a 91% chance of victory while the Vermont Senator’s odds are at just 9%.

Using the polls-plus forecast, Hillary has a whopping 96% chance of winning against Bernie’s 4%. It also predicts she will get 65.8% of the vote while he’ll get 30.6%.

The primary is set for April 26th.

13 Responses

  1. Bob – Bernie often points to Scandinavian countries as a model – these are “social democracies.” Bernie has called himself a “Democratic Socialist” when a more accurate term (at least according to Wikipedia) would be “social democrat.” I tend to think of democratic socialist countries as those like Venezuela, with a strongman faux democracy. In my view, Bernie is more akin to an FDR New Deal Democrat as opposed to Hillary as a New Democrat (Democratic Leadership Council).

  2. Let’s hope Silver misses PA Dem race as he did in MI. TheBern is by far our best chance against any R.

  3. What is the difference between “Democratic Socialism” and “Classical Socialism” and non-Stalinist or Soviet”Communism”? I would really like to know because I do not there there is any operational, real word difference but I could be wrong. I don’t know everything.

    Is there a real world example of “Democratic Socialism”

    Is it the European Welfare State like Germany, France, Italy, Greece,the Scandinavian countries? Or Cuba and Venezuela? Venezuela has elections.

    It seems to me that socialism, of any kind,leads to Cronyism, and Oligarchy as government fiat, enforced by government’s monopoly on violence, means some businesses are winners and others are losers.

    I have not seen a succinct definition of “Democratic Socialism”.

    Isn’t the free market democratic, the consumer chooses what he or she likes and wants and can pay for and those who fail to meet the needs of the demos fail? It seems to me the Free Market is the most democratic of all economic systems.

    There is also a high cost to consumers (and producers) if high tariffs are imposed on imports.

  4. I think it’s ridiculous that people think Hillary will win based on her foreign policy experience when the Republicans will absolutely hammer her with Benghazi. And her Iraq War vote doesn’t help her. Her sense of entitlement throughout her campaigns has always been what turns me off, and despite the fact that I want to see a female president, she is not the one I want. Bernie’s ideas sound costly and over the top, but we don’t blink an eye about millions of dollars in corporate welfare in this country. Citing Paul Krugman or anyone from the NY Times is ridiculous because that paper has consistently been in the bag for Hillary in its coverage.

  5. Yeah, I’m a Nate Silver fan, but he has been underestimating Bernie to a surprising degree.

  6. Nate Silver has been pretty inaccurate in his projections this cycle. And he will prove to be inaccurate once again. Nate needs to get out of his ivory tower and deal with real people.

  7. At last Diano has someone else to hate instead of Sestak. Bernie doesn’t really live in Vermont, I guess. He was not born in Brooklyn. He hates minorities. And it is terrible that only young dumb kids love his message. I don’t know that he will win Pa but he gives politics a breath of fresh air that is sadly lacking.

  8. CharlieDay-

    Seriously, you don’t know? The attacks against him are pretty obvious.

    1) The GOP would equate his “socialism” with communism (and that is really easy for them to convince voters who don’t understand Democratic Socialism is a progressive movement different from classical Socialism we learned about in school)

    2) His economic numbers don’t add up (per notable/credible economists like Paul Krugman:
    Basically that Bernie’s math is bad, and the reality of enacting it is even less plausible

    3) Despite being right about Iraq War being bad, he has very little foreign policy experience (and is not very conversant in debates, as he constantly dodges to talk about domestic policy)

    4) The R’s portray the D’s as weak on defense (which does matter to a lot of voters, and has been effective falsehood for Republicans). Bernie would fare worse than Clinton in such an attach.

    5) Bernie may be good on minority issues, but he doesn’t “connect” with minority voters very well. Hillary has beaten the snot out of him with this demographic. His campaign has disparaged the minority voters in red states as “irrelevant” in general elections. That’s going to backfire on him in a general election with minority voters in states he needs to win.

    6) GOP will probably attack him on his age and show selected clips to make him appear feeble and have whisper campaign about his health.

    7) His tax plan, calls for raising taxes on the middle class. Sure, it’s to subsidize more services than the increase in taxes, but people aren’t going to want to pay $2,000 a year for $6,000 worth of services they don’t care about.

    8) They will portray Bernie as too far to the left, and try to capture the center from him.

    And that’s off the top of my head without millions of dollars of opposition research into every vote, every speech, every interview, every promise.

  9. ADV-

    No. Bernie will lose PA primary by over 15 points (maybe 20).

    The ONLY reason Bernie is polling better is because they haven’t run attack ads against him. Once they do, he’ll sink like a rock.

  10. Bernie will win the PA Primary. Hillary is sinking, Bernie is surging. Bernie polls way better against all Republicans. Hillary has some very monumental “trust” issues and an on-going email problem which will be exploited should she face a Republican. Did you just see Bernie’s Pittsburgh speech on PCN today. Down-ticket Dems beware—Hillary will have negative coattails if she is the Dem nominee. Bernie, on the other hand, will bring about a voter tsunami this Fall. I can’t wait. My area is all Bernie. Phone callers are reporting the same. All Bernie.

Comments are closed.

  • When Will PA House Agree On Rules?

    • After the Special House Elections (Feb 7) (92%)
    • End of the Month (Jan 31) (4%)
    • End of Next Week (Jan 27) (2%)
    • Early February (Feb 1-6) (2%)

    Total Voters: 152

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