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Sabato: Trump Would Harm GOP’s Shot to Win PA

If the Republicans nominate Donald Trump, they’ll be in a significantly worse situation when it comes to the electoral college math.

That’s the conclusion of Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, who shift thirteen states (and an extra electoral vote) closer to Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical November match-up with Trump.

One of those states is Pennsylvania, which would move from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic”.

“Trump supporters and some independent analysts assert that his appeal to many blue-collar whites in Rust Belt states (such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) could pull these states’ electoral votes into the Republican column,” they write. “The problem is, there is little evidence that the non-college voters supporting Trump in the primaries are defectors from the Democrats; most have been backing GOP candidates fairly consistently, so the net addition for Trump could be small.”

“Nor do we buy the theory that increased Republican primary turnout this year means Trump is going to bring out millions more white and primarily male voters that weren’t excited by John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012,” they continued. “Maybe there will be higher white male voter participation, but there will probably be augmented, heavily Democratic minority turnout to balance it. Additionally, some white voters, particularly those with higher incomes and levels of education who may have voted for Romney, might have a hard time pulling the lever for Trump.”

At the moment, Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts that without Trump, the Democrats have 247 electoral votes against the Republicans’ 206 electoral votes with 85 electoral votes up for grabs.

Sabato Map 1 

Under the Trump scenario, however, there are no toss-ups. Democrats would take 347 electoral votes while Republicans received 191. That map is incredibly similar to the 2012 contest between Obama and Romney. The only state that would switch is North Carolina, which Romney carried by just two points.

Sabato Map 2
There are 538 total electoral votes. It takes a simple majority, 270, in order to win the presidency.

7 Responses

  1. Josh – you’re falling into the common Republican trap of considering Republican voters to be representative of all Americans. American voters overwhelmingly do not like Donald Trump. Have you seen his unfavorables? He’s almost universally disliked: he’s disliked by Democrats (obviously) but also Independents, young voters, women, and minorities. He’s even disliked by just shy of a majority of Republican women. Maybe if this were 1919 and women didn’t have the right to vote, you could make some kind of claim, but the fact of the matter is Donald Trump is liked primarily by a vocal group of white men who don’t even make up a majority of the Republican Party.

    I look forward to him winning the nomination and then downballot candidates spending the next four and a half months answering whether or not they agree with the outrageous things the Republican Party’s standard bearer says every time he opens his mouth.

  2. Philadelphia’s newest Republican, Seth Williams, will soon make a decision on whether to support Trump or Cruz.

    But first he has to deal with the latest scandal surrounding him and his Office:

    Seen at Union League where he was wearing a bow-tie and a “Make America Great Again” hat, Williams dined on Clams Casino (using campaign $$$ to pay for it). He was overheard saying: “I am just hoping no one asks why there were City cars parked out front of my house. My security detail drives me around in a black SUV – not a Crown Vic or a Ford Escape. I hope they don’t find out why those cars were there or WHO DROVE those City cars to my house!! Oh boy. I’m screwed!”

  3. Larry Sabato has been wrong before and he’s wrong now. Trump’s success is causing the talking heads like Sabato to lose their heads and run around screaming. Every prediction about Trump has failed. Guess what- American voters like Trump. I admit I’m a Cruz donor and I prefer Cruz, but Trump is much better than the lost specialists think.

  4. Oh, with Trump as the nominee the map would be far, far worse for Republicans than Sabato imagines.

  5. Dang … Looks like the Repervlican cheaters are gonna somehow deny Trump his spot atop their ticket.

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