Crystal Ball: 38% of PA GOP Primary Electorate Will be White Evangelicals
White evangelicals are a major portion of the GOP presidential primary electorate.
Associate Editor of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Geoffrey Skelley wanted to find just how large the proportion of white evangelicals in the GOP presidential primary is from state to state.
He produced the map presented below:
Skelley’s major take-away was that most of the states with heavy white evangelical electorates vote early in the primary season. We can determine through his statistics, though, a number of conclusions specific to Pennsylvania.
For instance, several of the biggest states in the country (like California and New York) have a small percentage of white evangelicals. As a result, of all the states where white evangelicals represent 30% or more of the GOP electorate, Pennsylvania has the fifth-highest delegate total at 71. Texas (155), Florida (99), Georgia (76) and North Carolina (72) are the top four.
Additionally, Pennsylvania has the highest proportion of white evangelical voters of any primary or caucus taking place between March 15th’s Ohio primary to Indiana’s primary on May 3rd.
These two revelations mean that PA’s April 26nd primary could be a major contest if the GOP’s nomination contest drags on through the spring.