Analysis: What They’re Saying Around PA

After the craziness of the last 72 hours, we decided to reach out to some experts and included some others for their take on what transpired on Tuesday in Pennsylvania.

 

Chris Borick
Professor of Political Science
Director, Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion

“Mastriano’s final margin demonstrates the breadth of the MAGA movement within the Pennsylvania GOP electorate. He offered voters an unvarnished option that allowed him to separate from the field. His culture warrior approach may not be a great fit in a general election cycle in PA, and in most election years he would not have a path to winning statewide. However, he has a cycle that greatly benefits Republicans and if economic conditions remain challenging he could ride a wave that allows him to be quite competitive with Shapiro.

As for the Senate race, Kathy Barnette’s late surge took a toll on Oz and helped create the extremely tight race that has played out.  A recount will certainly add even more acrimony to the Oz-McCormick relationship, but I’m not sure once the result is finalized it will hinder the winner’s prospect this fall.”

 

Dennis Plane
Professor of Politics, Juniata College

“Pennsylvania primary voters, rather than looking to the center for candidates that might do better in the general election, really embrace the extremes of their parties. Democrats clearly favored John Fetterman over Conor Lamb, the more establishment candidate.

On the GOP Senate side, two Trump-esque candidates – Oz and Kathy Barnette – got half of the vote, leaving McCormick ahead. Primary voters are party faithful. They’re not in the mood to look for candidates that appeal to independents. Barnette may have cut into Oz’s potential. A recount won’t hurt or help the winner in the general. It will show the GOP couldn’t decide.”

 

Berwood Yost
Director, Center for Opinion Research
Franklin & Marshall College

“I think after 2020, we knew the process of counting vote-by-mail ballots needed to be fixed. Clearly we haven’t done it. That’s on our political leaders. It’s unexcusable when you how other states are able to do it. Citizens want to use mail ballots. There were nearly 1 million requested. So why don’t we fix the problem.

This is exactly what we saw in our polling. Our polling showed a bit of a surge for Kathy Barnette – in that poll we report among Trump-faction of voters that Barnette and Oz split, leaving door open for McCormick. Both Barnette and Oz were competing for the Trump faction, so Barnette’s rise hurt Oz.”

 

Julia Terruso
Political Reporter, Philadelphia Inquirer

“Mastriano really won this thing with next to no fundraising operation,” she told WESA-FM. What that looks like in a general election and whether the party rallies around Mastriano the way he would need them to to be competitive and the money raised will be interesting.

Fetterman tapped into a growing populist electorate in Pennsylvania, combining that appeal with a progressive message. He got into the race early and set up an unbeatable fund-raising operation. And his “every county” strategy — combined with a social media campaign and TV ads — blanketed his brand statewide.”

 

Paul Muschick
Columnist, The Morning Call

“Gov. Doug Mastriano. If that has you rummaging for your Tums, you have plenty of company. Save some for me. Pennsylvania quickly would become Florida with him as king and a GOP-controlled Legislature to carry out his bidding. The Republican establishment did all it could to prevent Mastriano, a 2020 election conspiracy champion and friend of the QAnon crowd, from winning Tuesday. It doesn’t think he has a prayer of beating well-financed Democrat Josh Shapiro in November.

Don’t believe it? It’s a real possibility.”

 

18 Responses

  1. Proud Theocrat!

    Those who do not follow the teachings and words and interpretations as spewed on Webcam will end up banished to candy mountain. Do not pass go. Do not collect $200 dollars.

    Walk crazy.

  2. I wasn’t a Mastriano guy this past Tuesday. But now that he has won, I will back him 110 %, for the simple reason that our Commonwealth CANNOT withstand being led by josh shapiro.

    I just hope that, come November, ALL Republican voters can see this reality and vote for Mastriano, as well. Because if you thought milquetoast tom wolf was bad, mr. shapiro will be 100 times worse!

    1. Shapiro is really no different than any governor we’ve had in the last 50 years. Some have been slightly left, some have been moderate and some have been slightly right. Republican Tom Ridge was more liberal than Bob Casey. Ed Rendell and Tom Wolf are progressives and Tom Corbett was a corporate conservative – but they all followed the Constitution and wanted to properly manage state government.

      Now we get to DING DOUG DOUG who is an INSURRECTIONIST. He doesn’t want state government to operate normally and serve all people. He wants to roll back equality rights that have been established for people – changes that have been accepted and supported by the overwhelming majority of citizens. Mastriano is a danger for society and has already numerous times failed in upholding his Oath of Office.

      Stop with this nonsense that Shapiro would somehow be a threat – he’s the only normal candidate for Governor. He’s been a State Rep, County Commissioner and Attorney General and NEVER did anything radical and has made good decisions at all levels of government VS Mastriano who got removed from a chairmanship by HIS OWN PARTY.

      1. Ding Dong Dougie is a Theocrat. He wants the church to run the state. Dougie is a “real” constitutional guy!

      2. Excellent comment. We’ve been led by pretty good governors during my lifetime. Recently they’ve tempered an out-of-control legislature that favors amending the constitution for every nitnoid reason when they don’t get their way.

      3. This is not a comment on Mastriano. Rather, I’m not sure that it’s completely accurate to say that Gov. Wolf has followed the PA Constitution. As Governor, he is required to uphold PA law but he chose to ignore Act 13 which regulates natural gas development by voting in the Delaware River Basin Commission to ban fracking in the Delaware River Basin. I’m not raising fracking as an issue here. Rather, it is that our Governor chose to ignore his legal responsibility to uphold the law by undercutting with surrending state soverignty to the Commission.

  3. There is no way David McCormick is going to pull this off with 99% of the vote in and Dr. Mehmet Oz leading by 1,000.

    1. I want Oz to win the primary, but I think it is close enough that a recount could change the result. Perhaps unlikely, but possible.

  4. Ozzie being up by 1,079 to McCormick and all the Pa teachers contributions to the hedge fund lurking in the background means the game ended in a tie and we are in overtime. Overseas ballots have till 24th to arrive. Battles will be over provisional ballots.

    1. Dem have a big issue with the PA teachers connection to the hedge fund. Ozzie went after the issue but not too hard.

  5. tell me who counts the votes and I will tell you who will win . as a person involved in politics for 58 years i have seen so many different ways elections have been stolen that i would not trust the results of any election as they are presented to US . the whole process is a joke and a sham . the pa senate race will prove what i am saying and we have the nerve to tell other countries how to run elections c’mon man its laughable .

    1. How come every single person who says “elections have been stolen,” “I’ve seen it with my own eyes,” “for 50 years” have never, ever produced any proof or evidence that any ambitious prosecutor (local, state or national level) could use and that will hold up in any court? Until that happens, and happens with hundreds of fact-based cases, I don’t believe it. It’s a false flag grift, prove me wrong!

      Even the latest attempt at a documentary, 2000 Mules, could not make a fact based case. How do we know this: where are the special prosecutors, the grand juries and the indictments that came from any new evidence the film revealed? It’s one more grift to separate people from their money and to keep grifters bank accounts topped off so they don’t have to go out and do meaningful work.

  6. I’ll give you an analysis: DING DONG DOUG IS AN INSURRECTIONIST. DING DONG DOUG VIOLATED HIS OATH OF OFFICE AND SHOULD BE BARRED FROM APPEARING ON THE GENERAL ELECTION BALLOT.

  7. The brain trust at Franklin and Marshall are blaming the legislature for people who don’t have the capacity to follow simple instructions for mail in. MAGA blames the legislature for mail in thinking it doesn’t favor MAGA. Recounts will always be messy and confusing and that may be a good thing. Maybe Team Terry Madonna and MAGA blaming the legislature for knuckleheads who lack capacity to follow simple instructions is a good thing too.

    1. The mail in ballot snafu wasn’t totally user error. In Lancaster County the manufacturer of the mail in ballots could not provide the proper bar code for the ballot scanners resulting in 21,000 mail in ballots being re-written with observers. Mail in ballots are problems waiting to happen. Unless you’re away from your polling place, serving in the military or disabled then VOTE AT THE POLL.

      1. Voter fraud, Sister. There is so much of it going on from Act 77, that I voted for.

        And though I walk through the valley of Doritos, the carpet cleaner shall be my sunscreen and only I shall say what is and isn’t.

        All who disagree are RINOs.

        Make sure to recycle.

        Walk crazy.

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