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Emerson: Trump 47, Biden 43; Casey 45, McCormick 41

Joe Biden, Donald Trump

The latest Pennsylvania poll from Emerson College gives former President Donald Trump a slim lead over President Joe Biden in the chase for the White House.

In a survey of 1,000 registered Pennsylvania voters, Trump garnered 47 percent support, while Biden came in with 43 percent. Ten percent of the respondents indicated that they were undecided. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.

Trump was able to double the size of his margin since Emerson’s last survey in February when he led the current president, 45-43. He now holds a 46.4 – 43.8 advantage over Biden in the average of the last five polls.

“There is a distinction in motivation between Biden and Trump voters,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Trump voters support the former president because they care about an issue (28%), like Trump (27%), or dislike Biden (21%), whereas a plurality of Biden voters (33%) support the president because they dislike Trump and 24% support Biden because they like him as a candidate.”

With third-party candidates included on the ballot, 44% support Trump, 40% Biden, 5% Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein, respectively. Eight percent are undecided.

Thirty-six percent of respondents said their top issue is the economy, while crime (12%), immigration (11%), and threats to democracy (11%) also reached double digits.

Less than 2 in 5 (38%) of those surveyed approve of Biden’s job performance, while nearly 3 in 5 said that Biden’s age raises doubts in their mind about voting for him. Fifty-five percent said that Trump’s criminal indictments raises doubts on voting for the former president.

U.S. Senate

In a potential U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick, 45% support Casey, and 41% McCormick, while 14 percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Casey’s overall support increases to 52%, and McCormick to 48%.

This is a six-point swing in McCormick’s favor since the last survey in February when the former hedge fund CEO trailed Casey, 49-39. He still trails Casey in the average of the last five polls by 46.8 – 39.4.

Independent voters continue to break in Casey’s direction, 42-29, which increases to 57-43 when undecideds are pushed which way they may be leaning. About nine percent of Trump voters plan to split their ticket and vote for Casey, compared to 3% of Biden voters who would split their ticket and vote for McCormick.


Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has a job approval rating at 47 percent with 31 percent disapproving of the first-term governor’s performance. A little more than 1 in 5 are neutral on Shapiro.

5 Responses

  1. Well, seven months out, prior to criminal trials, Pa. people will vote for a guy who is going to gut social security and medicare?

    Right now, no one is paying attention. In October, they will.

    1. Yeah, that poll is BS. Casey is not running that close to McCormick. Cross tabs are all over the place here too in an unrealistic fashion (it has been the case with many polls so far this election season). Biden will win in November by 1-2.5 points. Take it to the bank.

      1. Agreed. As much as the media wants it , PA is not in play. The massive mail in ballot advantage the Dems have will handily carry Biden (and Casey) over the line. Additionally “Our Democracy” will not allow Kennedy or Stein to appear on the ballot in November.

        1. Don’t get complacent. Complacent people stay home and let someone else win by default.

          Vote. Vote! VOTE!!

    2. Unfortunately, I fear not one of the criminal trials will happen before November. If I was charged with a crime and didn’t have access to an army of lawyers, I would be charged, tried and locked up within 6 months. That corrupt Orange Liar can delay delay and delay some more and never face responsibility.


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