F&M Poll: Pennsylvania Moving in More Positive Direction
Survey shows voters still generally pessimistic about economy but moving forward
April 4, 2024
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Survey shows voters still generally pessimistic about economy but moving forward
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Survey shows increasing margin for Trump and decreasing deficit for McCormick
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Biden leads Trump for first time in PA. Shapiro, Casey above 50 percent approval marks
Respondents give low marks to Biden’s performance, ability to serve another term
The latest poll from Franklin & Marshall College shows a more optimistic Pennsylvania, while offering mixed news for the presidential candidates and better news for the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate.
The good news for President Joe Biden comes in the form of a two-horse race against former President Donald Trump. After landing within the margin of error against the 45th president in February, the 46th president has more than doubled the 4.0% margin of error (MOE) in this survey with a 48-38% percent advantage. An additional 13% favored “someone else,” while just 1% indicated that they did not know.
When two other options were presented to the respondents in the form of Jill Stein (Green) and Robert Kennedy Jr. (Independent), the race moved within the MOE with Biden at 42% and Trump at 40%. Kennedy (9%) and Stein (3%) seemed to take more support from Biden, who was at 42-37% with the same question in February.
Pollster Berwood Yost said that to better understand the effects that third-party candidates might have on the presidential race, his survey used a tool kno
wn as a “split-ballot experiment.” This uses a random procedure to assign different forms of a question to survey participants. Properly designed, these experiments create groups of people who are identical in all ways except for the form of the question they receive.
“This experiment shows that the race is closer when third-party candidates are offered because support for the President declines among registered Democrats as more of them opt for a third-party candidate,” he wrote.
Republican Dave McCormick made inroads into Sen. Bob Casey’s 12-percentage point advantage from February, trailing the three-time senator, 46-39%. While nearly 1 in 7 respondents were undecided (14%) in February, that number dropped to 1 in 8 (12%) in March and seemed to favor the former hedge fund CEO.
President
Biden and Trump are still not viewed favorably by the majority of Pennsylvanians, according to the survey. Forty-two percent view Biden in a favorable light, as opposed to 57% who see him unfavorably. Trump’s numbers are 39 and 60.
Thirty-five percent said Biden was doing a good or excellent job as president – his best rating since October 2022 (36%). Biden drew better marks than Trump on understanding the concerns of ordinary Americans (41-37), on value issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage (48-35), character and judgment (44-31) and honesty and trustworthiness (43-28).
Trump was preferred by respondents on the economy (48-38), and the military (43-41).
Biden’s current rating is lower than Trump’s and former President Barack Obama’s ratings in Pennsylvania at the same point in their terms.
Senate
In terms of favorability, Casey is viewed more favorably than McCormick with the senator at 40 and 34 and the challenger at 24 and 30. Surprisingly, nearly 1 in 4 surveyed (26%) said they had not heard enough about Casey to offer an opinion, while McCormick’s numbers were at 46%.
Two in 5 (39%) said Casey was doing a good or excellent job – his highest marks since pulling a 43 number in October 2018.
Governor
Gov. Josh Shapiro continues to receive high marks from his constituents as 54% of those surveyed reported he is doing a good or excellent job. That is the highest number that the former state Attorney General has earned since taking over the governor’s mansion. He also has more positive ratings among Democrats (83%) and independents (57%) than either Casey or Biden and is viewed positively in one in four (29%) Republicans.
Shapiro has the highest approval rating for a governor at this point in a first term since Governor Ridge.
Pennsylvania
Residents of the Commonwealth appear more positive in the direction of the state and their own personal situation.
Nearly 2 in 5 (39%) feel that things are getting better in the Commonwealth, while 1 in 6 (17%) said they and their family were better off than a year ago. Both of those figures were higher than the last survey in February. The 39% equals the highest number recorded by the poll in four years, equaling the number registered in August 2023. The 17% equals the highest number recorded by the poll since March 2022 (18%) and is six percent higher than October 2023.
The economy still resonates as the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today with 18 percent indicating that as their top choice. Government and politicians (14%) came in as the No. 2 problem, followed by crime, drugs, violence and guns (10%). Immigration came in sixth at five percent.
Voting
When asked about which came closest to their views on rules regarding voting in Pennsylvania, nearly 3 in 4 (72%) said “voting rules should encourage as many people to vote as possible so everyone’s views are represented in elections.” Seventy-three percent favor showing a photo ID when voting, while 65% percent favor having automatic voter registration in the Commonwealth.
Respondents were divided on changing the state laws to allow for pre-canvassing – or allowing county election officials to open mail ballot envelopes in advance to prepare for the beginning of counting on Election Day. Half were in favor, while 42% opposed with eight percent offering no opinion.
More than 3 in 4 surveyed (77%) favor “curing” mail ballots should election officials find an error on a submitted ballot such as a missing date or signature.
Miscellaneous
Support for legalizing recreational marijuana held steady at 62%. Those surveyed were queried that if recreational marijuana was legalized if should be sold in state-run stores or by privately owned medical marijuana dispensaries. Nearly half of the respondents (48%) said private dispensaries, while 3 in 10 (29%) said state-run stores.
Less than half (58%) of respondents said they were satisfied with the way democracy works in the United States today, including 1 in 4 (24%) that stated they were very dissatisfied.
One in eight (12%) said that if the presidential nominee of their party proposed doing things that seemed undemocratic, they would still vote for their party’s nominee, while 24% said they would not vote for president at all.
Fifty-seven percent believe that Trump’s actions to try to remain in power after the 2020 election were serious crimes – down two percent from February.
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted March 20 – 31, 2024. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data included in this release represent the responses of 870 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 390 Democrats, 356 Republicans, and 124 Independents.
The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.0 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. The sample error for questions based on subgroups is larger. The sample error for the two-way presidential horse race question (n=431) is +/- 5.7% and the SE for the multi-candidate presidential horse race question (n=430) +/- 5.7%.
The latest poll from Franklin & Marshall College shows a more optimistic Pennsylvania, while offering mixed news for the presidential candidates and better news for the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate.
The good news for President Joe Biden comes in the form of a two-horse race against former President Donald Trump. After landing within the margin of error against the 45th president in February, the 46th president has more than doubled the 4.0% margin of error (MOE) in this survey with a 48-38% percent advantage. An additional 13% favored “someone else,” while just 1% indicated that they did not know.
When two other options were presented to the respondents in the form of Jill Stein (Green) and Robert Kennedy Jr. (Independent), the race moved within the MOE with Biden at 42% and Trump at 40%. Kennedy (9%) and Stein (3%) seemed to take more support from Biden, who was at 42-37% with the same question in February.
Pollster Berwood Yost said that to better understand the effects that third-party candidates might have on the presidential race, his survey used a tool known as a “split-ballot experiment.” This uses a random procedure to assign different forms of a question to survey participants. Properly designed, these experiments create groups of people who are identical in all ways except for the form of the question they receive.
“This experiment shows that the race is closer when third-party candidates are offered because support for the President declines among registered Democrats as more of them opt for a third-party candidate,” he wrote.
Republican Dave McCormick made inroads into Sen. Bob Casey’s 12-percentage point advantage from February, trailing the three-time senator, 46-39%. While nearly 1 in 7 respondents were undecided (14%) in February, that number dropped to 1 in 8 (12%) in March and seemed to favor the former hedge fund CEO.
President
Biden and Trump are still not viewed favorably by the majority of Pennsylvanians, according to the survey. Forty-two percent view Biden in a favorable light, as opposed to 57% who see him unfavorably. Trump’s numbers are 39 and 60.
Thirty-five percent said Biden was doing a good or excellent job as president – his best rating since October 2022 (36%). Biden drew better marks than Trump on understanding the concerns of ordinary Americans (41-37), on value issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage (48-35), character and judgment (44-31) and honesty and trustworthiness (43-28).
Trump was preferred by respondents on the economy (48-38), and the military (43-41).
Biden’s current rating is lower than Trump’s and former President Barack Obama’s ratings in Pennsylvania at the same point in their terms.
Senate
In terms of favorability, Casey is viewed more favorably than McCormick with the senator at 40 and 34 and the challenger at 24 and 30. Surprisingly, nearly 1 in 4 surveyed (26%) said they had not heard enough about Casey to offer an opinion, while McCormick’s numbers were at 46%.
Two in 5 (39%) said Casey was doing a good or excellent job – his highest marks since pulling a 43 number in October 2018.
Governor
Gov. Josh Shapiro continues to receive high marks from his constituents as 54% of those surveyed reported he is doing a good or excellent job. That is the highest number that the former state Attorney General has earned since taking over the governor’s mansion. He also has more positive ratings among Democrats (83%) and independents (57%) than either Casey or Biden and is viewed positively in one in four (29%) Republicans.
Shapiro has the highest approval rating for a governor at this point in a first term since Governor Ridge.
Pennsylvania
Residents of the Commonwealth appear more positive in the direction of the state and their own personal situation.
Nearly 2 in 5 (39%) feel that things are getting better in the Commonwealth, while 1 in 6 (17%) said they and their family were better off than a year ago. Both of those figures were higher than the last survey in February. The 39% equals the highest number recorded by the poll in four years, equaling the number registered in August 2023. The 17% equals the highest number recorded by the poll since March 2022 (18%) and is six percent higher than October 2023.
The economy still resonates as the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today with 18 percent indicating that as their top choice. Government and politicians (14%) came in as the No. 2 problem, followed by crime, drugs, violence and guns (10%). Immigration came in sixth at five percent.
Voting
When asked about which came closest to their views on rules regarding voting in Pennsylvania, nearly 3 in 4 (72%) said “voting rules should encourage as many people to vote as possible so everyone’s views are represented in elections.” Seventy-three percent favor showing a photo ID when voting, while 65% percent favor having automatic voter registration in the Commonwealth.
Respondents were divided on changing the state laws to allow for pre-canvassing – or allowing county election officials to open mail ballot envelopes in advance to prepare for the beginning of counting on Election Day. Half were in favor, while 42% opposed with eight percent offering no opinion.
More than 3 in 4 surveyed (77%) favor “curing” mail ballots should election officials find an error on a submitted ballot such as a missing date or signature.
Miscellaneous
Support for legalizing recreational marijuana held steady at 62%. Those surveyed were queried that if recreational marijuana was legalized if should be sold in state-run stores or by privately owned medical marijuana dispensaries. Nearly half of the respondents (48%) said private dispensaries, while 3 in 10 (29%) said state-run stores.
Less than half (58%) of respondents said they were satisfied with the way democracy works in the United States today, including 1 in 4 (24%) that stated they were very dissatisfied.
One in eight (12%) said that if the presidential nominee of their party proposed doing things that seemed undemocratic, they would still vote for their party’s nominee, while 24% said they would not vote for president at all.
Fifty-seven percent believe that Trump’s actions to try to remain in power after the 2020 election were serious crimes – down two percent from February.
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted March 20 – 31, 2024. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data included in this release represent the responses of 870 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 390 Democrats, 356 Republicans, and 124 Independents.
The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.0 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. The sample error for questions based on subgroups is larger. The sample error for the two-way presidential horse race question (n=431) is +/- 5.7% and the SE for the multi-candidate presidential horse race question (n=430) +/- 5.7%.
The latest poll from Franklin & Marshall College shows a more optimistic Pennsylvania, while offering mixed news for the presidential candidates and better news for the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate.
The good news for President Joe Biden comes in the form of a two-horse race against former President Donald Trump. After landing within the margin of error against the 45th president in February, the 46th president has more than doubled the 4.0% margin of error (MOE) in this survey with a 48-38% percent advantage. An additional 13% favored “someone else,” while just 1% indicated that they did not know.
When two other options were presented to the respondents in the form of Jill Stein (Green) and Robert Kennedy Jr. (Independent), the race moved within the MOE with Biden at 42% and Trump at 40%. Kennedy (9%) and Stein (3%) seemed to take more support from Biden, who was at 42-37% with the same question in February.
Pollster Berwood Yost said that to better understand the effects that third-party candidates might have on the presidential race, his survey used a tool known as a “split-ballot experiment.” This uses a random procedure to assign different forms of a question to survey participants. Properly designed, these experiments create groups of people who are identical in all ways except for the form of the question they receive.
“This experiment shows that the race is closer when third-party candidates are offered because support for the President declines among registered Democrats as more of them opt for a third-party candidate,” he wrote.
Republican Dave McCormick made inroads into Sen. Bob Casey’s 12-percentage point advantage from February, trailing the three-time senator, 46-39%. While nearly 1 in 7 respondents were undecided (14%) in February, that number dropped to 1 in 8 (12%) in March and seemed to favor the former hedge fund CEO.
President
Biden and Trump are still not viewed favorably by the majority of Pennsylvanians, according to the survey. Forty-two percent view Biden in a favorable light, as opposed to 57% who see him unfavorably. Trump’s numbers are 39 and 60.
Thirty-five percent said Biden was doing a good or excellent job as president – his best rating since October 2022 (36%). Biden drew better marks than Trump on understanding the concerns of ordinary Americans (41-37), on value issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage (48-35), character and judgment (44-31) and honesty and trustworthiness (43-28).
Trump was preferred by respondents on the economy (48-38), and the military (43-41).
Biden’s current rating is lower than Trump’s and former President Barack Obama’s ratings in Pennsylvania at the same point in their terms.
Senate
In terms of favorability, Casey is viewed more favorably than McCormick with the senator at 40 and 34 and the challenger at 24 and 30. Surprisingly, nearly 1 in 4 surveyed (26%) said they had not heard enough about Casey to offer an opinion, while McCormick’s numbers were at 46%.
Two in 5 (39%) said Casey was doing a good or excellent job – his highest marks since pulling a 43 number in October 2018.
Governor
Gov. Josh Shapiro continues to receive high marks from his constituents as 54% of those surveyed reported he is doing a good or excellent job. That is the highest number that the former state Attorney General has earned since taking over the governor’s mansion. He also has more positive ratings among Democrats (83%) and independents (57%) than either Casey or Biden and is viewed positively in one in four (29%) Republicans.
Shapiro has the highest approval rating for a governor at this point in a first term since Governor Ridge.
Pennsylvania
Residents of the Commonwealth appear more positive in the direction of the state and their own personal situation.
Nearly 2 in 5 (39%) feel that things are getting better in the Commonwealth, while 1 in 6 (17%) said they and their family were better off than a year ago. Both of those figures were higher than the last survey in February. The 39% equals the highest number recorded by the poll in four years, equaling the number registered in August 2023. The 17% equals the highest number recorded by the poll since March 2022 (18%) and is six percent higher than October 2023.
The economy still resonates as the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today with 18 percent indicating that as their top choice. Government and politicians (14%) came in as the No. 2 problem, followed by crime, drugs, violence and guns (10%). Immigration came in sixth at five percent.
Voting
When asked about which came closest to their views on rules regarding voting in Pennsylvania, nearly 3 in 4 (72%) said “voting rules should encourage as many people to vote as possible so everyone’s views are represented in elections.” Seventy-three percent favor showing a photo ID when voting, while 65% percent favor having automatic voter registration in the Commonwealth.
Respondents were divided on changing the state laws to allow for pre-canvassing – or allowing county election officials to open mail ballot envelopes in advance to prepare for the beginning of counting on Election Day. Half were in favor, while 42% opposed with eight percent offering no opinion.
More than 3 in 4 surveyed (77%) favor “curing” mail ballots should election officials find an error on a submitted ballot such as a missing date or signature.
Miscellaneous
Support for legalizing recreational marijuana held steady at 62%. Those surveyed were queried that if recreational marijuana was legalized if should be sold in state-run stores or by privately owned medical marijuana dispensaries. Nearly half of the respondents (48%) said private dispensaries, while 3 in 10 (29%) said state-run stores.
Less than half (58%) of respondents said they were satisfied with the way democracy works in the United States today, including 1 in 4 (24%) that stated they were very dissatisfied.
One in eight (12%) said that if the presidential nominee of their party proposed doing things that seemed undemocratic, they would still vote for their party’s nominee, while 24% said they would not vote for president at all.
Fifty-seven percent believe that Trump’s actions to try to remain in power after the 2020 election were serious crimes – down two percent from February.
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted March 20 – 31, 2024. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data included in this release represent the responses of 870 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 390 Democrats, 356 Republicans, and 124 Independents.
The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.0 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. The sample error for questions based on subgroups is larger. The sample error for the two-way presidential horse race question (n=431) is +/- 5.7% and the SE for the multi-candidate presidential horse race question (n=430) +/- 5.7%.
The latest poll from Franklin & Marshall College shows a more optimistic Pennsylvania, while offering mixed news for the presidential candidates and better news for the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate.
The good news for President Joe Biden comes in the form of a two-horse race against former President Donald Trump. After landing within the margin of error against the 45th president in February, the 46th president has more than doubled the 4.0% margin of error (MOE) in this survey with a 48-38% percent advantage. An additional 13% favored “someone else,” while just 1% indicated that they did not know.
When two other options were presented to the respondents in the form of Jill Stein (Green) and Robert Kennedy Jr. (Independent), the race moved within the MOE with Biden at 42% and Trump at 40%. Kennedy (9%) and Stein (3%) seemed to take more support from Biden, who was at 42-37% with the same question in February.
Pollster Berwood Yost said that to better understand the effects that third-party candidates might have on the presidential race, his survey used a tool known as a “split-ballot experiment.” This uses a random procedure to assign different forms of a question to survey participants. Properly designed, these experiments create groups of people who are identical in all ways except for the form of the question they receive.
“This experiment shows that the race is closer when third-party candidates are offered because support for the President declines among registered Democrats as more of them opt for a third-party candidate,” he wrote.
Republican Dave McCormick made inroads into Sen. Bob Casey’s 12-percentage point advantage from February, trailing the three-time senator, 46-39%. While nearly 1 in 7 respondents were undecided (14%) in February, that number dropped to 1 in 8 (12%) in March and seemed to favor the former hedge fund CEO.
President
Biden and Trump are still not viewed favorably by the majority of Pennsylvanians, according to the survey. Forty-two percent view Biden in a favorable light, as opposed to 57% who see him unfavorably. Trump’s numbers are 39 and 60.
Thirty-five percent said Biden was doing a good or excellent job as president – his best rating since October 2022 (36%). Biden drew better marks than Trump on understanding the concerns of ordinary Americans (41-37), on value issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage (48-35), character and judgment (44-31) and honesty and trustworthiness (43-28).
Trump was preferred by respondents on the economy (48-38), and the military (43-41).
Biden’s current rating is lower than Trump’s and former President Barack Obama’s ratings in Pennsylvania at the same point in their terms.
Senate
In terms of favorability, Casey is viewed more favorably than McCormick with the senator at 40 and 34 and the challenger at 24 and 30. Surprisingly, nearly 1 in 4 surveyed (26%) said they had not heard enough about Casey to offer an opinion, while McCormick’s numbers were at 46%.
Two in 5 (39%) said Casey was doing a good or excellent job – his highest marks since pulling a 43 number in October 2018.
Governor
Gov. Josh Shapiro continues to receive high marks from his constituents as 54% of those surveyed reported he is doing a good or excellent job. That is the highest number that the former state Attorney General has earned since taking over the governor’s mansion. He also has more positive ratings among Democrats (83%) and independents (57%) than either Casey or Biden and is viewed positively in one in four (29%) Republicans.
Shapiro has the highest approval rating for a governor at this point in a first term since Governor Ridge.
Pennsylvania
Residents of the Commonwealth appear more positive in the direction of the state and their own personal situation.
Nearly 2 in 5 (39%) feel that things are getting better in the Commonwealth, while 1 in 6 (17%) said they and their family were better off than a year ago. Both of those figures were higher than the last survey in February. The 39% equals the highest number recorded by the poll in four years, equaling the number registered in August 2023. The 17% equals the highest number recorded by the poll since March 2022 (18%) and is six percent higher than October 2023.
The economy still resonates as the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today with 18 percent indicating that as their top choice. Government and politicians (14%) came in as the No. 2 problem, followed by crime, drugs, violence and guns (10%). Immigration came in sixth at five percent.
Voting
When asked about which came closest to their views on rules regarding voting in Pennsylvania, nearly 3 in 4 (72%) said “voting rules should encourage as many people to vote as possible so everyone’s views are represented in elections.” Seventy-three percent favor showing a photo ID when voting, while 65% percent favor having automatic voter registration in the Commonwealth.
Respondents were divided on changing the state laws to allow for pre-canvassing – or allowing county election officials to open mail ballot envelopes in advance to prepare for the beginning of counting on Election Day. Half were in favor, while 42% opposed with eight percent offering no opinion.
More than 3 in 4 surveyed (77%) favor “curing” mail ballots should election officials find an error on a submitted ballot such as a missing date or signature.
Miscellaneous
Support for legalizing recreational marijuana held steady at 62%. Those surveyed were queried that if recreational marijuana was legalized if should be sold in state-run stores or by privately owned medical marijuana dispensaries. Nearly half of the respondents (48%) said private dispensaries, while 3 in 10 (29%) said state-run stores.
Less than half (58%) of respondents said they were satisfied with the way democracy works in the United States today, including 1 in 4 (24%) that stated they were very dissatisfied.
One in eight (12%) said that if the presidential nominee of their party proposed doing things that seemed undemocratic, they would still vote for their party’s nominee, while 24% said they would not vote for president at all.
Fifty-seven percent believe that Trump’s actions to try to remain in power after the 2020 election were serious crimes – down two percent from February.
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted March 20 – 31, 2024. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data included in this release represent the responses of 870 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 390 Democrats, 356 Republicans, and 124 Independents.
The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.0 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. The sample error for questions based on subgroups is larger. The sample error for the two-way presidential horse race question (n=431) is +/- 5.7% and the SE for the multi-candidate presidential horse race question (n=430) +/- 5.7%.
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