Democrats and Republicans will each win 9 of Pennsylvania’s 18 congressional seats this November, according to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight. The site conducted a statistical analysis for all 435 congressional districts using election results from the past 20 years to predict each outcome. They predict an overall gain for Dems of 35 seats, which would flip control of the House.
The full national analysis with methodology is here.
Pennsylvania Incumbents are favored in every case, with the caveat that Rep. Conor Lamb is predicted to beat Rep. Keith Rothfus.
Reps. Matt Cartwright and Scott Perry are strongly favored. The most endangered incumbent besides Rothfus is Rep. Lloyd Smucker: he has slightly lower odds of re-election (72.7%) than even the Democrats’ top PA target, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (78.5% odds).
PA1: Likely R
Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 7 in 9 | 78.5% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 51.7 | high: 56 low: 47
Scott Wallace (D) 2 in 9 | 21.5% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 46.1 | high: 51 low: 41
Steve Scheetz (Lib.) <1 in 100 | <0.1% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 2.2 | high: 4 low: 1
PA2: Solid D
Brendan Boyle (D) >99 in 100 | >99.9% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 73.6 | high: 79 low: 69
David Torres (R) <1 in 100 | <0.1% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 26.4 | high: 31 low: 21
PA3: Solid D
Dwight Evans (D) >99 in 100 | >99.9% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 89.7 | high: 93 low: 86
Bryan E. Leib (R) <1 in 100 | <0.1% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 10.3 | high: 14 low: 7
PA4: Solid D
Madeleine Dean (D) >99 in 100 | >99.6% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 62.1 | high: 67 low: 57
Dan David (R) <1 in 100 | <0.4% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 37.9 | high: 43 low: 33
PA5: Solid D
Mary Gay Scanlon (D) >99 in 100 | >99.9% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 67.6 | high: 73 low: 62
Pearl Kim (R) <1 in 100 | <0.1% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 32.4 | high: 38 low: 27
PA6: Solid D
Chrissy Houlahan (D) 39 in 40 | 97.6% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 58.7 | high: 64 low: 53
Greg McCauley (R) 1 in 40 | 2.4% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 41.3 | high: 47 low: 36
PA7: Likely D
Susan Wild (D) 7 in 8 | 86.8% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 52.3 | high: 58 low: 47
Marty Nothstein (R) 1 in 8 | 13.2% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 43.7 | high: 49 low: 38
Tim Silfies (Lib.) <1 in 100 | <0.1% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 4.1 | high: 7 low: 1
PA8: Likely D
Matt Cartwright (D) 14 in 15 | 93.5% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 56.4 | high: 62 low: 51
John Chrin (R) 1 in 15 | 6.5% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 43.6 | high: 49 low: 38
PA9: Solid R
Dan Mueser (R) >99 in 100 | >99.1% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 61.1 | high: 67 low: 55
Denny Wolff (D) <1 in 100 | <0.9% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 38.9 | high: 45 low: 33
PA10: Likely R
Scott Perry (R) 6 in 7 | 85.2% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 53.8 | high: 59 low: 49
George Scott (D) 1 in 7 | 14.8% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 46.2 | high: 51 low: 41
PA11: Lean R
Lloyd Smucker (R) 5 in 7 | 72.7% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 52.4 | high: 58 low: 47
Jess King (D) 2 in 7 | 27.3% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 47.6 | high: 53 low: 42
PA12: Solid R
Tom Marino (R) >99 in 100 | >99.9% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 63.9 | high: 69 low: 59
Marc Friedenberg (D) <1 in 100 | <0.2% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 36.1 | high: 41 low: 31
PA13: Solid R
John Joyce (R) >99 in 100 | >99.9% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 69.0 | high: 74 low: 64
Brent Ottaway (D) <1 in 100 | <0.1% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 31 | high: 36 low: 26
PA14: Solid R
Guy Reschenthaler (R) 79 in 80 | 98.8% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 60.2 | high: 66 low: 55
Bibiana Boerio (D) 1 in 80 | 1.2% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 39.8 | high: 45 | low: 34
PA15: Solid R
Glenn W. Thompson (R) >99 in 100 | (>99.9%) chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 66.1 | high: 72 low: 61
Susan Boser (D) <1 in 100 | <0.1% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 33.9 | high: 39 low: 28
PA16: Solid R
Mike Kelly (R) 19 in 20 | 95.2% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 55.0 | high: 60 low: 50
Ron DiNicola (D) 1 in 20 | 4.8% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 42.6 | high: 47 low: 38
Ebert G Bill Beeman (Lib.) | <0.1% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 2.4 | high: 5 low: 1
PA17: Likely D
Conor Lamb (D) 14 in 15 | 93% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 55.3 | high: 60 low: 51
Keith Rothfus (R) 1 in 15 | 7% chance of winning | Expected Vote Share: 44.7 | high: 49 low: 40
PA18: Solid D
Mike Doyle (D) “>99 in 100” (>99.9%) Expected Vote Share: 100
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27 Responses
In PA01 Fitzpatrick has taken Paul Ryan’s CLF money and has decided to go low with it, launching ads attacking Wallace with some questionable claims. It comes off as desperate and underhanded, unseamly. I don’t think it’s going over well, and is part of the reason I’ll likely vote for the democrat this year.
Dean is hiding west of 202 in the 4th. Her actions are like a true political lifer and she is only visiting with other political lifers and high value donors. David is all and having meetings with everyone he can get in front of. Dean had to forced into a débate. Dean I’m an identity politics candidate and David is talking changing the system.
Its nice of David’s mom to write such nice things about him.
Dan David looks to have closed the gap to single digits in the 4th CD. Interesting.
Source?
Rumor in Montco is that Joe Gale is sabotaging Dan David’s campaign to exert revenge on David campaign manager Brad Vasoli.
Brad and Joe have a lot of bad blood dating back to the Montco YR’s. I think it had something to do with who’s mother made the best brownies.
Everyone knows Mrs Keleman made the best brownies.
I would definitely think it would be great if Wolff got some added traction here in the 9th. He’d be a fine representative for our district!
I hope Cartwright mops the floor with Chrin. I’m in the neighboring district and his commercials are on TV here and they’re the worst! Pure sleaze!
At any rate, I can’t wait till Casey gets resoundingly re-elected and embarrasses Nigel Farange’s alt right buddy Barletta.
Would still like to see Wagner win as the only Republican on the ticket here in Columbia County worth anymore than the rubbish of Trump and his lock step right wing propaganda machine! Never good to vote full party line!
Meuser strikes me as the sleazy used car sales guys
Not one GOP should survive who does not immediately and with gusto denounce Trump and his attack on USA democracy.
Not one GOP should survive who does not immediately and with gusto PRAISE Trump and his ENHANCEMENT OF USA democracy.
Are you sampling?
This is illustrative:
ht tp://ti me.c om/5368846/donald-trump-arizona-primary/
No Matter Who Becomes Arizona’s Next Senator, Trump Has Already Won
No, I’m just a moron!
Apparently, Sklaroff thinks that knowing the flavor of Trump’s @ss will help GOP candidates win. I’m sure Trump would love to turn it into an ice cream flavor to sell at his rallies.
I know stats are stats – but he’s gonna be wrong on at least one of these. Scott, DiNicola and Rothfus should be higher. Scott is the only one with the real chance to pull it out though with this atmosphere.
Can’t stop the Lamb Locomotive with the Republican moms thinking he is hot. Kelly is on the air already saying how great he is with seniors, trying to innoculate himself against the strongest argument against and all of the R congressman (see Casey’s first ad against Barletta out of the box). Perry is still making mistakes and thinking he is in his old district when the ground has shifted significantly under his feet. George Scott has growing momentum and is out of central casting as a candidate. The district is suburban now, not rural and Perry is having trouble adjusting to it. It’s gonna flip.
if guy reschenthaler wins his race for congress in 2018 as expected and for State Representative Dan Miller a democrat will win his state senate seat in a special election in 2019.
I think there are some other strong candidates for the 37th in a Special Election. Wouldn’t coronate anybody just yet.
Shut up you flaming idiot
Who is the flaming idiot? Just wondering.
Apologies for the lack of clarification, that would be Zakrey Bissell!
Also DiNicola should have a higher chance of winning than is listed here.
Agreed. Ron could pull off an upset here in PA-16. Good candidate with an even better background. Kelly should be afraid to debate him.
Scott, Chrin and Rothfus should be higher in their chance of winning.
Agree with a lot of this but think the analyst is wrong on Cartwright. I’d give him more like a 55-60% chance. That race will end up very close. Granted, hard to beat any incumbent, and Chrin name recognition needs work, but Cartwright is really vulnerable in this new district. If the D’s think this one is that much of a sure thing, they must be using Hillary’s pollsters. Cartwright’s sanctuary cities votes, his pro-Pelosi votes, being anti-Trump in strong Trump country, and not paying his taxes on time on his own luxury condo is all hurting him.
with a blue wave coming in November and I think for Matt Cartwright will be the favorite is to hold his seat in November over his republican opponent maybe in 2020 or 2022 for the republicans will gain his seat by then.
Thanks John Chris’s office staff for the encouragement.