How Would A Bloomberg Run Have Affected PA?

Yesterday, former Mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg announced that he would not be running for President.

This news shouldn’t have been too surprising, after all Bloomberg has been flirting with a White House campaign for a decade. It appears, however, that this time the result was very nearly different.

According to Maggie Haberman and Alexander Burns of the New York Times, Bloomberg produced an introductory ad and conducted polls in a number of states.

Bloomberg’s team tested a three-way race between Bloomberg and GOP and Democratic front-runners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Clinton-Trump-Bloomberg 

They also did one with Bernie Sanders in place of Clinton.  

Sanders-Trump-Bloomberg 

Altogether, twenty-two states were polled, including Pennsylvania. According to these surveys, both Clinton and Sanders would win the Keystone State.

But are those surveys accurate? After all, the Bloomberg-Sanders-Trump map shows the New Yorker taking Tennessee, the buckle of the Bible Belt.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver was among those skeptics, so he ran the numbers on what a Bloomberg-Clinton-Trump contest may have potentially looked like.

His scenario showed PA going red.

538-Bloomberg

Silver’s model projects that Bloomberg would take 31.8%, leaving Donald Trump with 35.4% ahead of Hillary Clinton’s 32.8%.

So when it comes to the question of whether Pennsylvania is still a purple state or now safely a blue one, the jury is still out.

2 Responses

  1. Bloomberg is delusional. There is no way he would win Tennessee and Georgia and tie in Texas and Missouri no matter who is in the matchup. At least he came to the conclusion that he couldn’t win, though.

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