It appears the race in PA has tightened.
That’s according to the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg survey, which has Hillary Clinton at 44% and Donald Trump at 41%.
Just a week ago, Morning Call and Muhlenberg College had Clinton with a 47% to 38% advantage over Trump.
If Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein are included, Clinton’s lead over Trump narrows to two points, 40% to 38%. Johnson and Stein get 8% and 3% respectively.
Demographics
Digging into the crosstabs, Trump’s gains seem to come from additional support from Republicans (85/5) and the middle of the commonwealth (57/31). On the other hand, Clinton leads with Democrats (78/9) and Independents (40/34) as well as Southeast residents (57/26). Trump edged ahead among Southwest residents (44/42).
The gender and educational gaps were both present again. Clinton has an eleven-point advantage with women (48/39) and college graduates (49/38). Meanwhile Trump is ahead by five with men (45/40) and six with non-college graduates (45/39).
The biggest discrepancy, however, is racial. By a 49% to 38% margin, whites favor Trump while non-whites prefer Clinton 68% to 13%.
Finally, 18 to 29 year-olds are with Clinton 51% to 29% whereas 50 to 64 year-olds favor her 45% to 43%. 30 to 49 year-olds are tied 42% to 42% while those over 65 years-old prefer Trump 47% to 41%.
Analysis
How did one week make such a difference? As implausible as it may seem, there might not have been any change at all.
It really doesn’t really make sense for Clinton to post a strong result in the midst of a public bout with pneumonia, but then have worse numbers a week later when no major events happened in between.
It’s likely as simple that both surveys were outliers and/or subject to sampling error. It may well be the case that a nine-point lead is Clinton’s best-case scenario and a three-point lead is the worst. Monday night’s debate could very well swing the numbers between the two poles of a solid Clinton lead and a within the margin of error toss-up.
The Morning Call/Muhlenberg Poll was conducted by Muhlenberg University from September 19th to 23rd. They surveyed 486 likely Pennsylvania voters. The margin of error is +/-5%.
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8 Responses
Hacked “Tim” e-mails show he has no friends. No job. And no family members that like him.
Hacked DNC e-mails call PA + Ohio voters “White Trash”! I’d say crooked Hillary has a bad case of “Ameriphobia! Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha!!!!!!
https://conservativedailypost.com/leaked-dnc-email-ohio-and-pa-voters-called-white-trash/?utm_source=Push&utm_campaign=25_September_1415&utm_medium=OneSignal
Hey Gulag, quit making excuses for your failed candidate, “Deathbed Hillary”. CNN reports this morning Pennsylvania is now a “tossup” – http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/26/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-colorado-pennsylvania-polls/index.html
Her massive health problems have the electorate very concerned if she is even capable of doing the job…, https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/25/hillarys-instantaneous-health-morph-unanticipated-pool-reporter-surprises-secretary-clinton/
Too bad she didn’t just retire and manage her foundation and enjoy her grandkids instead of injecting her 289# carcass on the electorate. She is the worst of the past. She is the establishments’ status quo. The worst choice for president – ever! A crooked liar! A traitor to America!
Hiliary never looked this good- you can make a custom lecture to try to jaw her look taller- but we can’t cover up(??) what
Arrogance and Corruption she represents.
Hiliary is filth- -and stinks up our politics soap and perfume can’t mask that- that’s why Trump still stands a chance- we can’t email Hiliary- or her pimps Mills and Abedin- but as polls show most Americans no she is a rotten liar.
Bless our police!
Oh oh! Hillary better bring in the heavy artillery, Monica Lewinsky, and Paula Jones.
The explanation is bad polling. Nobody outside of a mental hospital is stupid enough to vote for Trump.
Hillary is a wall street puppet (and obviously the most corrupt candidate either party has nominated).
Trump is a Putin puppet.