Nate Silver: PA Now Part of Clinton’s Firewall

538 PA 8-9-16Pennsylvania is trending away from Donald Trump and towards Hillary Clinton.

That’s the conclusion FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver comes to in his latest election update, which is titled “Polls Show Pennsylvania Back in Clinton’s Firewall”.

“The best news for Clinton is in Pennsylvania, where a variety of post-convention surveys, including the two released on Tuesday, show her ahead by around 9 percentage points,” he writes. “Our polls-only model now projects Clinton to win Pennsylvania by 8.5 percentage points, making it just a pinch bluer than the national average.”

In fact, the contest for Kansas is closer than the battle for Pennsylvania at this moment.

Silver goes on to note that if PA is indeed in Clinton’s column right now, it would be a significant game-changer. This is because of other states, principally Virginia and Colorado, where Hillary also seems to be pulling away.

These three states would put Clinton at 269 electoral votes, just one shy of the majority needed to win the White House.

3 Responses

  1. It’s a little funny to think of Virginia as being more solidly blue than Pennsylvania, but the numbers certainly suggest that’s the case. With Florida flirting with becoming a reliably blue state, it’s starting to look like the late 19th century with the roles reversed.

  • Who Will Be Speaker of the PA House on February 28?

    • Joanna McClinton (68%)
    • Mark Rozzi (27%)
    • A Republican TBD (5%)

    Total Voters: 315

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