PA-Sen: Emerson Poll: Toomey 46% McGinty 39%

Pat-ToomeySenator Pat Toomey is back on top.

At least that’s according to Emerson College, which has him with a 46% to 39% lead over Democratic nominee Katie McGinty.

More specifically they found Toomey at 45.5% and McGinty at 39.4%, so the margin is really six points instead of seven. 10% were undecided and 5% wanted someone else.

When it comes to favorable ratings both candidates were underwater but the incumbent’s showing was better. 34.8% have a favorable view of the Senator while 37.6% have an unfavorable view. 24% are undecided.

McGinty, meanwhile, recorded a 27.8% favorable rating against a 39% unfavorable score. 24.8% are undecided about the Democratic challenger.

The Emerson College Polling Society conducted this survey with 800 likely voters from August 25th to 28th. The data was collected using an IVR (Interactive Voice Response) system that only includes landlines. The data was also weighted by the 2012 results. The margin of error is +/- 3.4%.

Many polling experts are wary of IVR surveys, as best epitomized by the New York Times’ Nate Cohn:

August 29th, 2016 | Posted in Features, Front Page Stories, Senate, Top Stories | 21 Comments

21 thoughts on “PA-Sen: Emerson Poll: Toomey 46% McGinty 39%”

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  2. Joe's vacant PA house says:

    Right you are David!

  3. Unsanctioned R says:

    I would like to suck on Toomey’s little dick.

  4. David Diano says:

    Joe’s vacant PA house-

    Not me. I’ve been referring to Terry Madonna’s polls as sh*t for a while now.

  5. Joe's vacant PA house says:

    Funny I didn’t hear people complaining when Terry Madonna was putting out the same garbage. I guess it’s only a problem when it doesn’t support the establishment’s narative.

  6. Ellie says:

    Ask Katie for a definite yes or no about if she agrees with Colin Kaepernick.

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  8. John Smith says:

    Mr. Tom Corbett will be the next senator.

  9. Irish says:

    Before Toomey surrogates rejoice without just cause, take a look at where Nate Silver of 538 ranked the Emerson poll:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

    Landline polls exclusively are just not that accurate.

  10. PA Parent says:

    Has #ShadyKatie conceded yet?

  11. Chris Martinez says:

    Paul Tom3ey gonna loose in lanceslide cuz he been a berry bery rottin senitor and aint got no reazin to stay at senitor for pencilvaneya,

  12. Observer says:

    Way to go, PA Dems! Marcel and Fast Eddie really picked a Winner with Corporate Katie! Lololol…..

  13. John Smith says:

    Me. Tom Corbett will be the next attorney general.

  14. Mikey says:

    Emerson did some real BS weighting with this one too. Just add a couple of % here, remove a couple there.. boom! You got yourself a “poll.”

  15. HaHaHa says:

    This news makes my vagina hurt.

  16. Tim says:

    #OldPeople4Toomey

  17. Chris says:

    Said it before and I’ll say it again: Trump loses Pennsylvania by about 5 points, but Toomey wins by 2 or 3.

  18. Montco PA Dem says:

    Well, Toomey has the dinosaur vote. I think that means he’s headed for extinction.

  19. CentPADem says:

    If this makes Trump and Toomey feel better heading into Labor Day – fine with me. Toomey doesn’t deserve another 6 years in the US Senate.

  20. Disqualified says:

    This poll should be automatically thrown out. It only included landlines and did NOT include cell phones. Since we live in the age of technology and no longer live in the dinosaur age, landlines might as well be extinct. Most families and 100% of the millennial generation use cell phones to communicate.

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