PoliticsPA: 2020 General Election Results Playbook

This is hands-down the most difficult, muddled election in the history of PoliticsPA. There are so many moving pieces and outstanding ballots that it’s impossible to provide a definitive read on many key races. It will be days before we know. 

Many, many ballots statewide are still outstanding, especially in vote-rich counties of southeast PA and Allegheny County. And even counties that HAVE counted all their votes, are instructed to count eligible ballots received through Friday.

In the meantime, here is the best information on every competitive race in PA as it stands first thing this morning. 

 

President. Donald Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden by 11 percent, with 75% estimated to be in. There are 30 counties that he won in 2016, and 2 that Hillary Clinton won, where almost all (95% plus) of the mail and in-person ballots have been counted. In those counties, Trump’s net vote margin increased by 13,739. That doesn’t include Philly, SEPA or Pittsburgh, where Democrats are expecting a surge. 

 

Statewide. For Attorney General, Josh Shapiro is running about three points ahead of Biden. For Auditor General, Nina Ahmad is running about 5 points behind Biden. For Treasurer, Joe Torsella is running about 2 points behind Biden. 

 

Congressional Races 

PA1: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) leads Democratic challenger Christina Finello by just under 30 points, with 36% of estimated votes reported. Bucks County is far too soon to get a meaningful read on the race. 

PA2: Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Philadelphia) re-elected against GOP challenger David Torres. 

PA3: Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) re-elected over Republican Michael Harvey.

PA4: Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Montgomery) re-elected against GOP challenger Kathy Barnette.

PA5: Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D-Delaware) re-elected over Republican Dasha Pruett.

 

PA6: Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Chester) leads GOP challenger John Emmons by 11 points, with 54% of estimated votes reported. 

 

PA7: Rep. Susan Wild (D-Lehigh) trails GOP challenger Lisa Scheller by 30,000 votes with 70% in, and this race is too early to call. As Morning Call reporter Andrew Wagaman reported late last night: “If I’m doing my math correctly, that means Scheller leads Wild 149,329 to 119,978 with at least 89,000 returned mail-in ballots to still be counted in Lehigh and Northampton counties and an undetermined amount in Monroe County.” Wild is running about 1 point ahead of Trump in Lehigh and Northampton counties. 

 

PA8: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) had a long night. He trails GOP challenger Jim Bognet by 3.5 percent, about 10,000 votes with 80% estimated to be in. The good news for him is, a lot of the outstanding ballots are mail ballots from Monroe County, which he won in 2018. This is one to watch on Wednesday. 

 

PA9: Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Luzerne) reelected against Democratic challenger Gary Wegman. 

 

PA10: Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) leads Democratic challenger Eugene DePasquale by 19 points and 49,000 votes, but this is too close to call. Cumberland and York counties won’t even start reporting mail votes until today. However, the numbers out of Dauphin County — 98%+ in of mail and in-person — are encouraging for Perry. It gave DePasquale a 5,800 vote margin, less than the 9,000 margin Dem George Scott received in 2018. The Congressman is running about 3,000 votes ahead of Trump in that county. That said, Dauphin was Scott’s base while DePasquale hopes to improve in his: York Co. 

 

PA11: Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Lancaster) reelected over Democrat Sarah Hammond. 

PA12: Rep. Fred Keller (R-Snyder) reelected against Democratic challenger Lee Griffin. 

PA13: Rep. John Joyce (R-Blair) reelected over Democrat Todd Rowley. 

PA14: Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Allegheny) reelected against Democratic challenger Bill Marx. 

PA15: Rep. G.T. Thompson (R-Centre) reelected over Democrat Robert Williams.

 

PA16: Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Butler) is 34 points ahead of Democratic challenger Kristy Gnibus with an estimated 70% of the vote in. Several of the counties have significant votes outstanding, but in Lawrence, which has 94% of all in-person and mail votes in, he’s running 7 points ahead of his 2018 margin. 

 

PA17: This is a difficult one to get a handle on because none of the three counties in the district have reported both mail and in-person. Rep. Conor Lamb trails GOP challenger Sean Parnell by about 10 points and 21,000 votes, with a mix of mail and in-person from Allegheny County, and what looks like in person but no mail from Beaver and Butler counties. Wednesday will be very illuminating. 

PA18: Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Allegheny) defeats Republican challenger Luke Negron. 

 

State Senate and House

Here are the races in districts where counties in the district have a significant majority of mail and in-person votes counter, with the caveat that more ballots will arrive in every one of them. We’re watching every competitive race, but not listing those in counties (ie. SEPA) where the results are still murky and scattershot. If we missed a competitive race where most results are in, and at least some writing is on the wall, please send me a note at John@PoliticsPA.com).

 

State Senate 

SD-9: State Sen. Tom Killion’s (R-Delaware) reelection bid against Democratic challenger John Kane is too close to call, according to the Daily Local News

SD-13: Sen. Scott Martin (R-Lancaster) leads Democratic challenger Janet Diaz by 23 percent with 82% estimated to be in. 

SD-15: Sen. John DiSanto (R-Dauphin) holds a slim lead over Democratic challenger George Scott, according to PennLive.

SD-31: Incumbent Sen. Mike Regan (R-York) leads Democratic challenger Shanna Danielson, according to PennLive

State House

HD-10: State Rep. Aaron Bernstine (R-Lawrence) has defeated Democrat Kolbe Cole and Independent challenger Johnathan Peffer, according to New Castle News

HD-29: State Rep. Meghan Schroeder (R-Bucks) defeated Democrat Marlene Katz, according to the Bucks County Courier Times. Schroeder leads Katz by 42 percent with 55% estimated to be in. 

HD-50: GOP challenger Larry Yost leads state Rep. Pam Snyder (D-Greene) by 804 votes, according to the Observer-Reporter

HD-55: GOP challenger Jason Silvis holds a lead over Rep. Joe Petrarca (D-Westmoreland), according to the Tribune Review

HD-72: State Rep. Frank Burns (D-Cambria) defeated GOP challenger Howard Terndrup by just under 5 percent with 93% estimated to be in, the AP reports. 

HD-105: Incumbent Rep. Andrew Lewis (R-Dauphin) leads Democratic challenger Brittney Rodas by just under 4 percent with 98% estimated to be in. 

HD-106: Rep. Tom Mehaffie (R-Dauphin) leads Democratic challenger Lindsay Drew by 7 percent with 98% estimated to be in. 

HD-114: Rep. Bridget Malloy Kosierowski (D-Lackawanna) defeated GOP challenger James May

HD-123: Republican Tim Twardzik leads Democrat Peter Symons Jr. by 27 percent with 90% estimated to be in. The seat is held by state Rep. Neal Goodman (D-Schuylkill), who is retiring at the end of the current term.

HD-138: Republican Ann Flood leads Democrat Tara Zrinski by 15 percent, just shy of 6,000 votes with 88% estimated to be in. The seat is held by state Rep. Marcia Hahn (R-Northampton), who is retiring at the end of this term. 

HD-143: Republican Shelby Labs has defeated state Rep. Wendy Ullman (D-Bucks), according to the Bucks County Courier Times. Labs leads by just under 40 percent with 55% estimated to be in.

 

Here are the races we’re watching closely on Wednesday as more votes are reported. They’re in counties that are so far off at this time that currently-available information is not very useful. 

They are:

Senate districts 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 37, 45, 49

And House districts 16, 18, 22, 26, 28, 30, 33, 44, 53, 116, 131, 151, 152, 160,168 ,176 ,178

November 4th, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Playbook, Top Stories | 14 Comments

14 thoughts on “PoliticsPA: 2020 General Election Results Playbook”

  1. gulag Pittsburgh says:

    Trump is a lunatic and traitor to America.

    1. Central Pa says:

      Biden is a traitor ! Taking money from the communist Chinese and Russians and Iranians ! By Hunter Biden Laptop Computer !

  2. Ed Mealmo says:

    ANN FLOOD IS SO SEXY! I AM HAPPY SHE WON>

  3. Ned Shneablee says:

    Too bad your orange pile of crap lost. Get over it!!

  4. babs75 says:

    How can we trust the Gov who has endorsed Biden and trashed Trump to keep results honest?

    1. someone who thinks says:

      The counties do the count, not the governor

      1. babs75 says:

        The Gov controls the statewide election bureau and can play games, he probably got a late night call from the DNC ordering him to make sure Trump votes get trashed any way he can, especially since there are ballots floating around until Friday.

        1. Hugh Jorgan says:

          Paranoia will destroy ya.

  5. David Diano says:

    State Senate 9, Kane vs Killion isn’t too close to call, and and likely for Kane.

    Killion has an 8,000 lead. There are a MINIMUM of 20,000 mail-in ballots to count. 70/30 split would be a tie. Kane is doing better than 70/30 and the 20,000 doesn’t count ballots in drop boxes or arriving my mail that didn’t get into 59,800 count of returned as of last night.

    I call this race for Kane.

  6. Thomas Paine says:

    With a news cycle that is 24/7 and a billion websites and twitter accounts and social media everywhere as well as a paper trail for all votes it is darn impossible to concoct a vote fraud plot. Anyone reaching middle age has seen votes changing leads many times before a decision is reached. These irresponsible allegations of fraud are without substance. Let’s face it, democracy is messy so we need to go with it and let the counting process unfold. Keep in mind that even though we may have facial recognition we still have very easily hacked voting records that any low life from Moscow can manipulate and hack into. Maybe people smarter than I can figure it out but as of now I don’t see how you can not have a paper trail for ballots since hacking electronically has happened to our US governments and hospitals and so on.

    1. Democracy Lover says:

      What’s messy about it? Counting votes is clear and simple. Endless lies are ‘messy’, but that’s their own mess.

  7. Jakewaters says:

    So when will the 21 counties not reporting mail in ballot results send their counts in to the Commonwealth?

  8. Steelersfan6 says:

    I’ll just get some popcorn, a soda and wait it out

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