PoliticsPA: 2020 General Election Results Playbook
This is hands-down the most difficult, muddled election in the history of PoliticsPA. There are so many moving pieces and outstanding ballots that it’s impossible to provide a definitive read on many key races. It will be days before we know.
Many, many ballots statewide are still outstanding, especially in vote-rich counties of southeast PA and Allegheny County. And even counties that HAVE counted all their votes, are instructed to count eligible ballots received through Friday.
In the meantime, here is the best information on every competitive race in PA as it stands first thing this morning.
President. Donald Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden by 11 percent, with 75% estimated to be in. There are 30 counties that he won in 2016, and 2 that Hillary Clinton won, where almost all (95% plus) of the mail and in-person ballots have been counted. In those counties, Trump’s net vote margin increased by 13,739. That doesn’t include Philly, SEPA or Pittsburgh, where Democrats are expecting a surge.
Statewide. For Attorney General, Josh Shapiro is running about three points ahead of Biden. For Auditor General, Nina Ahmad is running about 5 points behind Biden. For Treasurer, Joe Torsella is running about 2 points behind Biden.
PA1: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) leads Democratic challenger Christina Finello by just under 30 points, with 36% of estimated votes reported. Bucks County is far too soon to get a meaningful read on the race.
PA2: Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Philadelphia) re-elected against GOP challenger David Torres.
PA3: Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) re-elected over Republican Michael Harvey.
PA4: Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Montgomery) re-elected against GOP challenger Kathy Barnette.
PA5: Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D-Delaware) re-elected over Republican Dasha Pruett.
PA6: Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Chester) leads GOP challenger John Emmons by 11 points, with 54% of estimated votes reported.
PA7: Rep. Susan Wild (D-Lehigh) trails GOP challenger Lisa Scheller by 30,000 votes with 70% in, and this race is too early to call. As Morning Call reporter Andrew Wagaman reported late last night: “If I’m doing my math correctly, that means Scheller leads Wild 149,329 to 119,978 with at least 89,000 returned mail-in ballots to still be counted in Lehigh and Northampton counties and an undetermined amount in Monroe County.” Wild is running about 1 point ahead of Trump in Lehigh and Northampton counties.
PA8: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) had a long night. He trails GOP challenger Jim Bognet by 3.5 percent, about 10,000 votes with 80% estimated to be in. The good news for him is, a lot of the outstanding ballots are mail ballots from Monroe County, which he won in 2018. This is one to watch on Wednesday.
PA9: Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Luzerne) reelected against Democratic challenger Gary Wegman.
PA10: Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) leads Democratic challenger Eugene DePasquale by 19 points and 49,000 votes, but this is too close to call. Cumberland and York counties won’t even start reporting mail votes until today. However, the numbers out of Dauphin County — 98%+ in of mail and in-person — are encouraging for Perry. It gave DePasquale a 5,800 vote margin, less than the 9,000 margin Dem George Scott received in 2018. The Congressman is running about 3,000 votes ahead of Trump in that county. That said, Dauphin was Scott’s base while DePasquale hopes to improve in his: York Co.
PA11: Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Lancaster) reelected over Democrat Sarah Hammond.
PA12: Rep. Fred Keller (R-Snyder) reelected against Democratic challenger Lee Griffin.
PA13: Rep. John Joyce (R-Blair) reelected over Democrat Todd Rowley.
PA14: Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Allegheny) reelected against Democratic challenger Bill Marx.
PA15: Rep. G.T. Thompson (R-Centre) reelected over Democrat Robert Williams.
PA16: Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Butler) is 34 points ahead of Democratic challenger Kristy Gnibus with an estimated 70% of the vote in. Several of the counties have significant votes outstanding, but in Lawrence, which has 94% of all in-person and mail votes in, he’s running 7 points ahead of his 2018 margin.
PA17: This is a difficult one to get a handle on because none of the three counties in the district have reported both mail and in-person. Rep. Conor Lamb trails GOP challenger Sean Parnell by about 10 points and 21,000 votes, with a mix of mail and in-person from Allegheny County, and what looks like in person but no mail from Beaver and Butler counties. Wednesday will be very illuminating.
PA18: Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Allegheny) defeats Republican challenger Luke Negron.
State Senate and House
Here are the races in districts where counties in the district have a significant majority of mail and in-person votes counter, with the caveat that more ballots will arrive in every one of them. We’re watching every competitive race, but not listing those in counties (ie. SEPA) where the results are still murky and scattershot. If we missed a competitive race where most results are in, and at least some writing is on the wall, please send me a note at John@PoliticsPA.com).
SD-9: State Sen. Tom Killion’s (R-Delaware) reelection bid against Democratic challenger John Kane is too close to call, according to the Daily Local News.
SD-13: Sen. Scott Martin (R-Lancaster) leads Democratic challenger Janet Diaz by 23 percent with 82% estimated to be in.
SD-15: Sen. John DiSanto (R-Dauphin) holds a slim lead over Democratic challenger George Scott, according to PennLive.
SD-31: Incumbent Sen. Mike Regan (R-York) leads Democratic challenger Shanna Danielson, according to PennLive.
HD-10: State Rep. Aaron Bernstine (R-Lawrence) has defeated Democrat Kolbe Cole and Independent challenger Johnathan Peffer, according to New Castle News.
HD-29: State Rep. Meghan Schroeder (R-Bucks) defeated Democrat Marlene Katz, according to the Bucks County Courier Times. Schroeder leads Katz by 42 percent with 55% estimated to be in.
HD-50: GOP challenger Larry Yost leads state Rep. Pam Snyder (D-Greene) by 804 votes, according to the Observer-Reporter.
HD-55: GOP challenger Jason Silvis holds a lead over Rep. Joe Petrarca (D-Westmoreland), according to the Tribune Review.
HD-72: State Rep. Frank Burns (D-Cambria) defeated GOP challenger Howard Terndrup by just under 5 percent with 93% estimated to be in, the AP reports.
HD-105: Incumbent Rep. Andrew Lewis (R-Dauphin) leads Democratic challenger Brittney Rodas by just under 4 percent with 98% estimated to be in.
HD-106: Rep. Tom Mehaffie (R-Dauphin) leads Democratic challenger Lindsay Drew by 7 percent with 98% estimated to be in.
HD-114: Rep. Bridget Malloy Kosierowski (D-Lackawanna) defeated GOP challenger James May.
HD-123: Republican Tim Twardzik leads Democrat Peter Symons Jr. by 27 percent with 90% estimated to be in. The seat is held by state Rep. Neal Goodman (D-Schuylkill), who is retiring at the end of the current term.
HD-138: Republican Ann Flood leads Democrat Tara Zrinski by 15 percent, just shy of 6,000 votes with 88% estimated to be in. The seat is held by state Rep. Marcia Hahn (R-Northampton), who is retiring at the end of this term.
HD-143: Republican Shelby Labs has defeated state Rep. Wendy Ullman (D-Bucks), according to the Bucks County Courier Times. Labs leads by just under 40 percent with 55% estimated to be in.
Here are the races we’re watching closely on Wednesday as more votes are reported. They’re in counties that are so far off at this time that currently-available information is not very useful.
Senate districts 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 37, 45, 49
And House districts 16, 18, 22, 26, 28, 30, 33, 44, 53, 116, 131, 151, 152, 160,168 ,176 ,178