Sabato’s Crystal Ball & Cook Political Report Shift PA-15 After Dent’s Retirement
Crystal Ball’s managing editor Kyle Kondik tweeted out a shift in the ranking for the 15th district from ‘likely Republican’ to ‘lean Republican.’
2 big House R retirees in 2 days. Crystal Ball ratings changes as follows: WA-8 (Reichert) Likely R > Toss-up, PA-15 (Dent) Safe R > Lean R
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) September 8, 2017
Cook Political Report saw Dent’s retirement as a chance for a Democratic pickup.
“For now, we are moving PA-15 from Solid Republican to Lean Republican,” the Political Report said.
The Report points out that if Democrats run the right candidate for the district, or Republicans run the wrong candidate the district could become very competitive.
Update: Inside Elections also shifted its ranking of the seat from ‘solid Republican’ to ‘lean Republican.”
“Dent’s 15th District isn’t as Democratic—Donald Trump carried it 52-44 percent in 2016 and Mitt Romney won it by 3 points in 2012—but sources in the Keystone State admit it could be a difficult hold depending on the nominees and national political climate. The congressman’s reputation as a moderate made the announcement more dramatic than the partisanship of the district,” Inside Elections noted in its update.