Besides for toss-up, open PA-8 all of the commonwealth’s congressional districts are now rated either safely Democratic or safely Republican.
This is because Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted PA-6 and PA-7 from “Likely Republican” to “Safe Republican” in their latest forecast.
“Reps. David Joyce (R, OH-14) and Ryan Costello (R, PA-6) are both newer members of Congress — Joyce was first elected in 2012 and Costello was first elected in 2014 — and they both represent suburban districts that lean Republican, but not overwhelmingly so (Mitt Romney won both districts 51%-48% in 2012),” Managing Editor Kyle Kondik writes. “They also both have fairly weak Democratic opponents who have raised almost no money. If either of these incumbents end up being in trouble, it will be a sign of a big Democratic wave. As for now, we see both districts as Safe Republican now instead of Likely Republican.”
“We’re also making the same ratings change for Rep. Pat Meehan (R, PA-7),” Kondik continued. “National Democrats’ preferred candidate, Bill Golderer, got blown out in a primary by 2014 nominee Mary Ellen Balchunis. Meehan beat Balchunis, who has raised hardly any money, by 24 points in 2014. Perhaps things get so bad for Republicans that we have to revisit this race as well, but for now it feels Safe for them. All three of these seats are the kinds of districts that Democrats really need to bring into the fold to build a durable House majority, and they’ve seemingly struck out in all three.”
The 6th Congressional District consists of parts of Berks, Chester, Lebanon and Montgomery Counties.
The 7th Congressional District includes most of Delaware County as well as parts of Chester, Montgomery, Berks and Lancaster Counties.