Sabato’s Crystal Ball Shifts PA-6, PA-7 Towards GOP

CostelloForget any notion that PA has more than one swing seat.

Besides for toss-up, open PA-8 all of the commonwealth’s congressional districts are now rated either safely Democratic or safely Republican.

This is because Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted PA-6 and PA-7 from “Likely Republican” to “Safe Republican” in their latest forecast.

“Reps. David Joyce (R, OH-14) and Ryan Costello (R, PA-6) are both newer members of Congress — Joyce was first elected in 2012 and Costello was first elected in 2014 — and they both represent suburban districts that lean Republican, but not overwhelmingly so (Mitt Romney won both districts 51%-48% in 2012),” Managing Editor Kyle Kondik writes. “They also both have fairly weak Democratic opponents who have raised almost no money. If either of these incumbents end up being in trouble, it will be a sign of a big Democratic wave. As for now, we see both districts as Safe Republican now instead of Likely Republican.”

“We’re also making the same ratings change for Rep. Pat Meehan (R, PA-7),” Kondik continued. “National Democrats’ preferred candidate, Bill Golderer, got blown out in a primary by 2014 nominee Mary Ellen Balchunis. Meehan beat Balchunis, who has raised hardly any money, by 24 points in 2014. Perhaps things get so bad for Republicans that we have to revisit this race as well, but for now it feels Safe for them. All three of these seats are the kinds of districts that Democrats really need to bring into the fold to build a durable House majority, and they’ve seemingly struck out in all three.”

The 6th Congressional District consists of parts of Berks, Chester, Lebanon and Montgomery Counties.

The 7th Congressional District includes most of Delaware County as well as parts of Chester, Montgomery, Berks and Lancaster Counties.

April 28th, 2016 | Posted in Congress, Front Page Stories, Top Stories | 8 Comments

8 thoughts on “Sabato’s Crystal Ball Shifts PA-6, PA-7 Towards GOP”

  1. steventodd says:

    One (1) Congressional seat in PA is competitive.

    Out of 18 Congressional seats in PA.

    Fair Districts for America…NOW.

  2. BUCKS BARRISTER says:

    fair redistricting in 2022. Screwed until then.
    PLAN AHEAD

  3. BUCKS BARRISTER says:

    fair redistricting in 2022. Screwed until then

  4. PA Expat says:

    DD –

    Where can one find the stats for voter registration by Congressional District?

  5. Senator Rutherford B. Cattywampus says:

    So they’re using one criteria–lack of money–for the reason that Balchunis can’t beat Meehan. By that metric, Golderer should have won by 25 points.

    Try again.

  6. Montco PA Dem says:

    If Trump or Cruz is the nominee, the Dem wave could be huge. Even these guys could get whacked. Or course, they’ll be right back in 2018 when half the Dems don’t show up to vote.

  7. Jpaul says:

    Money talks- and Ryan the hack has lots of that. Costellos problem is he is a party hack who stands with the likes of John Boehnet and McConnell the weasel. If Parish can get his act together he will beat
    This republican lightweight as voters reject a party that stands for nothing. The issue isn’t Trump or Cru– its lousy leaders like Ryan & McConnell. Costello loses as Dems sweep with huge votes from all disgusted with pathetic failure of Ryan Costello and the stooges who claim to lead republican establishment. Lyin Ryan goes down in upset!

  8. David Diano says:

    “All three of these seats are the kinds of districts that Democrats really need to bring into the fold to build a durable House majority, and they’ve seemingly struck out in all three.””

    The GOP has a f*cking 65,000 voter advantage in the 7th. It’s the most gerrymandered district in the country. The GOP has 25,000 voter edge in the 6th.

    Dems need to get fair redistricting laws passed to fix “these seats”.

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