Margolies Poll: Margolies Leads in PA-13

Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky

Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky

A poll commissioned by Marjorie Margolies shows the former Congresswoman with a wide lead in the Democratic primary to replace Rep. Allyson Schwartz.

Margolies takes 43%, followed by state Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Phila) at 15%, state Sen. Daylin Leach (D-Montco) at 7% and physician Valerie Arkoosh at 2%. 31% were undecided.

The poll of 422 likely voters was conducted by Jef Pollock at Global Strategy Group from August 13 to 15. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.8%, and the results weighted for demographics and geography.

“Margolies’ lead in the primary is based on her high positive name identification,” Pollock wrote. “Indeed, Margolies is much more familiar to voters than any of her primary opponents – a significant hurdle for them given just how expensive the Philadelphia media market is.”

63% of respondents had an opinion of Margolies, which was 55% to 8% positive. Boyle was second (23% favorable, 3% unfavorable), then Leach (13% favorable, 3% unfavorable) and Arkoosh (7% favorable, 2% unfavorable).

Margolies won Montgomery County with 51%. She won Philadelphia with 33% (Boyle was second in Philly with 28%).

Margolies served in Congress for one term from 1993 to 1995. In the late 1960s she spent several years as a journalist on Philadelphia television and has been a regular guest on TV in the market

As with any internal poll, the results should be taken with a grain of salt. Campaigns typically decide to release polling for one of two reasons: to enhance their own viability, or to diminish that of their opponent(s). In this case, the poll does both. And it helps to counteract the effects of a weak fundraising quarter for Margolies in which she raised less than all three of her opponents.

Plus, it’s preliminary. None of the candidates have begun advertising in earnest.

That said, Margolies’ campaign was more transparent than many campaigns about its polling and shared a copy of its survey questions and topline results with PoliticsPA for the purpose of verification.

A few odds & ends from those toplines:

Bill Clinton is very popular in PA-13, 89% to 7% view him favorably. Rep. Bob Brady (D-Phila) is viewed favorably 50% to 8%; Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro is positive, 42% to 4%; labor leader John Dougherty is positive 24% to 11%.

Voters approve the job Allyson Schwartz is doing in Congress 73% to 15%.

Here’s the public memo:

PA13 Margolies Poll – August 2013

August 21st, 2013 | Posted in Congress, Front Page Stories, Poll, Top Stories | 12 Comments

12 thoughts on “Margolies Poll: Margolies Leads in PA-13”

  1. bobguzzardi-

    It’s only a double-standard if he opposed funding public schools, which is not the case.

    Those of us that support funding public schools don’t care if private schools exist, as long as they don’t take away much needed funds from public education.

    As for the private schools themselves, I’ve never been that impressed. When I was in school, the top kids at Radnor and Haverford High ran circles around the kids at Haverford Prep. In public school with 550 seniors, you have 55 kids in the top 1%, which is about the entire class size at a place like Haverford Prep (whose kids aren’t all in the the top 1%).

  2. bobguzzardi says:

    The wealthy Daylin Leach sends his kids to very expensive, very exclusive, very white Lower Merion private school. Daylin does not send his kids to PSEA’s government schools because he wants them to have a good education. As a parent, he has made a good decision but it does show him to be a Double Talking Double Standard Democrat. A phony.

  3. Souderton Sam-
    I thought I had heard Brady was backing Boyle. MMM doesn’t even live in Philly (though is in Fattah’s 2nd district), and backing her wouldn’t give him the influence it would over someone like Boyle who (if elected) would be in Congress a longer time.

    But, you are on drugs if you think Daylin can’t beat MMM for the Montco endorsement.

    Daylin had a easy reelection for his senate seat and he spent a lot of time helping the other candidates. He’ll do well.

    13thDistDem-
    I agree on the name recognition. I started getting involved in politics during the 2004 presidential campaign. I never heard of MMM until she joined the crowd running for the 13th.

    Progressive-
    I’m sure Aren will have a day-by-day diary of Daylin’s accomplishments for you. 🙂

  4. Aren Platt says:

    Progressive Against Daylin,

    I think that you are a bit misinformed about the Leach campaign, and Senator Leach. At your convenience I’d like to discuss the campaign with you, and go over your concerns. Please email me when you have some time, I think it will be good to start a dialogue.

    Aren Platt
    Senior Advisor to Daylin for Congress
    aplatt@VoteDaylin.com

  5. Remember says:

    People remember and her numbers show that!! She will win hands down.

  6. Progressive Against Daylin says:

    MMM I would keep an open mind about. And Daylin is never going to win, although he is popular with the Daily Show crowd, there is not as much overlap as there used to be, and even then, what has wealthy Daylin done for Norristown, the only poor town in his district? What has he done for Philly schools, which are still under state control (yuk), so it’s everyone’s issue. I live in Frankford, and believe me, nobody in the poor neighborhoods likes the Klown Prince of King of Prussia.

    “Politics is serious business; we need a congressperson, not a clown”
    -Progressive Against Daylin

  7. Souderton Sam says:

    Sorry David. You are wrong on both counts. The whole Brady team is with MMM so the Chairman can give lip service to Boyle. In Montco, the Party will be with MMM also. Leach and Boyle are outside looking in, but MMM’s problem is not the guys, but Akoosh, the other woman

  8. delco observer says:

    This is a joke…of course she’s ahead…it’s her poll!
    She will not win the Primary. It is Boyle or Leach in a dead heat.

  9. 13thDistDem says:

    No dog in this race…but MMM has been out of office for 20 years. No WAY she has 63% name rec, even among Democratic primary voters…

  10. The best Republican candidate in the world could not overcome the voter registration margin D+13 in the 13th District. Republican donors have not been willing to back a republican candidate because they don’t see a way to win. Party leadership has abandoned the fight as well. Schwartz was such a lock because of all this that she never even bothered to campaign. Voters in the 13th really don’t care who is the Democrat representing them, they just know it will be a Democrat and that is good enough for them.

  11. While Brady will probably put in the fix to get Boyle selected as the endorsed candidate in Philly…. Daylin will undoubtedly be the endorsed candidate in Montco. He is extremely popular and spoken at many committee events, so he’s sure to sweep the county convention to have his name on the official sample ballots at the polls.

  12. Bob says:

    While the SE GOP continues to disintegrate thanks to the constant civil war in Bucks, Montco, and Philly brought on by who will control the ever shrinking portion of the pie, the SE Dems have their act together. It is so funny to watch the contrast as the Ds promote winners and the Rs do everything they can to denigrate their best and most successful. The corner is turned. Unfortunately, the entire region will look like Philly does now in 50 years. Just like the change over from R to D in the City in the mid 50s brought us the Philly of today. To stay in power, the Ds have to pander. That drives up costs of programs to “help” their voters and drives out the businesses and people who provide the tax base. In the coming decades, that will continue and the people who pay the taxes will move further out and the suburbs will all become like Philly, Chester, Norristown, Bristol, Upper Darby, Cheltenham. All because the GOP fiddled with constant war between the Asher and Non-Asher forces while the region burned.

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