Margolies Poll: Margolies Leads in PA-13
A poll commissioned by Marjorie Margolies shows the former Congresswoman with a wide lead in the Democratic primary to replace Rep. Allyson Schwartz.
Margolies takes 43%, followed by state Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Phila) at 15%, state Sen. Daylin Leach (D-Montco) at 7% and physician Valerie Arkoosh at 2%. 31% were undecided.
The poll of 422 likely voters was conducted by Jef Pollock at Global Strategy Group from August 13 to 15. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.8%, and the results weighted for demographics and geography.
“Margolies’ lead in the primary is based on her high positive name identification,” Pollock wrote. “Indeed, Margolies is much more familiar to voters than any of her primary opponents – a significant hurdle for them given just how expensive the Philadelphia media market is.”
63% of respondents had an opinion of Margolies, which was 55% to 8% positive. Boyle was second (23% favorable, 3% unfavorable), then Leach (13% favorable, 3% unfavorable) and Arkoosh (7% favorable, 2% unfavorable).
Margolies won Montgomery County with 51%. She won Philadelphia with 33% (Boyle was second in Philly with 28%).
Margolies served in Congress for one term from 1993 to 1995. In the late 1960s she spent several years as a journalist on Philadelphia television and has been a regular guest on TV in the market
As with any internal poll, the results should be taken with a grain of salt. Campaigns typically decide to release polling for one of two reasons: to enhance their own viability, or to diminish that of their opponent(s). In this case, the poll does both. And it helps to counteract the effects of a weak fundraising quarter for Margolies in which she raised less than all three of her opponents.
Plus, it’s preliminary. None of the candidates have begun advertising in earnest.
That said, Margolies’ campaign was more transparent than many campaigns about its polling and shared a copy of its survey questions and topline results with PoliticsPA for the purpose of verification.
A few odds & ends from those toplines:
Bill Clinton is very popular in PA-13, 89% to 7% view him favorably. Rep. Bob Brady (D-Phila) is viewed favorably 50% to 8%; Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro is positive, 42% to 4%; labor leader John Dougherty is positive 24% to 11%.
Voters approve the job Allyson Schwartz is doing in Congress 73% to 15%.
Here’s the public memo: