McGinty Poll: Schwartz Leads PA-Gov; McGinty 2nd

Kathleen McGinty

Katie McGinty

A poll commissioned by Katie McGinty’s gubernatorial campaign finds her in second place among Pa. Democrats behind Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz.

“Our poll shows that while Schwartz has the initial advantage because of her name recognition, she has not yet locked down that advantage,” wrote McGinty pollster Fred Yang.

In the initial ballot question, before any information is supplied about any candidates, Schwartz lead with 25%. McGinty, state Treasurer Rob McCord and former Revenue Sec. Tom Wolf each took around 6%.

Schwartz has 51% name recognition, followed by McCord at 32%, Wolf at 27% and
McGinty at 20%.

Garin Hart Yang pollsters conducted the survey of 506 likely Pa. Democratic primary voters from August 27 to 29. McGinty’s campaign has been using the poll results in its fundraising efforts.

In its polling memo, first obtained by Early Returns, McGinty’s pollster emphasizes the second ballot, read after profile statements were read about each of the 4 candidates tested.

There, Schwartz takes 36% to McGinty’s 25%, with Wolf at 10% and McCord at 9%.

“If the McGinty campaign has the financial resources and support to present their candidate’s exceptional background and record, our polling shows that she has the very
real potential to mount a competitive campaign and to emerge victorious,” Yang concludes.

As with any internal polling, the results should be taken with a grain of salt. Pollsters typically prepare two memos following a poll. One emphasizes the positive aspects of the results and is meant for the public; another gives an unvarnished view and is kept within the campaign. The substance and context of this poll make it clear that it has been used as a fundraising tool by the campaign.

So far no poll, independent or otherwise, has shown any of the current candidates leading the race besides Schwartz.

The dynamic of the campaign thus far can be characterized thusly: Schwartz is the front runner, and every other candidate is seeking to present him- or herself as a viable alternative to Schwartz. This poll is McGinty’s effort to do just that.

The pollster did not ask about other current or potential gubernatorial campaigns including former DEP Sec. John Hanger, Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski, or former Pa. Auditor General Jack Wagner.

September 17th, 2013 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Top Stories | 6 Comments

6 thoughts on “McGinty Poll: Schwartz Leads PA-Gov; McGinty 2nd”

  1. David Diano says:

    A few years ago, Santorum finally admitted he is a resident of Virginia. He can’t run for Gov.

    (we are still waiting for Sestak to acknowledge his status as a Virginia resident)

  2. I 'dratherbefishingwithric says:

    I can’t wait for Santorum to announce he’s running for Gov and blow these jokers out of the water in the polls!

  3. David Diano says:

    EasternPADem-

    Well, she tossed in Bill Clinton and claimed she “helped” create 3,000 jobs.

    For Schwartz, they threw in her strong support for Obamacare (guided it through congress) which doesn’t play well everywhere in the state. No mention of job creation. No mention of environmental record.

    For McCord, they throw in a more indirect reference to job creation (he raised money for young companies that helped create job), without putting a count estimate on the number of jobs. No mention of environmental record.

    For Wolf, no mention of job creation. No mention of environmental record.

    If you note in their two “findings” at the beginning, they emphasize job-creator in both, and pair it with her environmental record.

    So, they’ve identified jobs and environment as two key issues. I bet if the “bios” included jobs and environmental records of the other candidates (which I expect are going to be good), that these poll numbers would swing toward the other candidates.

    While, it appears that she does trump the others on environment, I don’t think she is going to win the “jobs” issue if the biggest number she can claim is only 3,000. Schwartz can make a bullsh*t claim that she voted for legislation that created millions of jobs, without having to make any before/after comparisons for context. McCord can probably extrapolate his investments into sizable job numbers or projections. I don’t know the size of Tom Wolf’s company, but he can claim all those jobs, and then “claim/project” all the jobs PA loses to China as something he could do as Governor.

    But, to even claim that McGinty has room to grow by citing all the undecided voters is just silly at this point when most “decided” voters are going by vague name recognition.

    Radio GaGa has the right point that it’s going to take millions of dollars to achieve REAL name recognition and get your message out.

  4. Radio GaGa says:

    This is very good for McGinty but I think the $ amount needed to be viable is pushing $7-8 million by this point. She is the only candidate that could be helped by picking an LG running mate.

  5. EasternPADem says:

    Keystone Politics has the whole memo that includes full bios tested. Judge for yourself to see if they are indeed skewed
    http://www.keystonepolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/McGinty-Poll-Memo_Final.pdf

  6. David Diano says:

    Umm.. the key line here is:

    “after profile statements were read about each of the 4 candidates tested”

    So, I think we can assume these were all pretty skewed.

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