Smith Poll: Smith Leads Senate Race

Tom Smith’s Senate campaign today released internal polling results which show their candidate with a strong lead: 29 percent to Sam Rohrer’s 14 percent, with Steve Welch in third at 9 percent.

“These results are further evidence that Tom Smith has all the momentum in this race,” said GOP pollster John McLaughlin. “With the clock running down to primary day, there is little opportunity for the opposition to catch Tom Smith.”

The full tally showed a healthy 39 percent of Republicans undecided less than two weeks from election day:

Tom Smith – 29%
Sam Rohrer – 14%
Steve Welch – 9%
David Christian – 7%
Marc Scaringi – 2%
Undecided – 39%

As with any internal polling, this should be taken with a grain of salt. Campaigns typically release their numbers for one of two reasons: to demonstrate viability or boost fundraising (or both).

In this case, the aim might be to deter prospective donors to his opponents.

Here is the pollster’s methodology:

This survey of political attitudes was conducted among 600 likely Republican primary voters in Pennsylvania between Monday April 9 and Wednesday April 11, 2012. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone. Interview selection was random within predetermined units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with actual voter distributions in statewide Republican primaries. The accuracy of this survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters is +/-4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.

Smith is a former coal company owner from Armstrong County. He’s been airing TV ads since December. Rohrer is a former state Rep. from Berks County. Welch is an entrepreneur from Chester County who was endorsed by the Pa. Republican Party.

David Christian is a businessman and veterans advocate from Bucks County; Scaringi is an attorney from Cumberland County.

The five men are vying to face Sen. Bob Casey.

April 12th, 2012 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Senate, Top Stories | 18 Comments

18 thoughts on “Smith Poll: Smith Leads Senate Race”

  1. Jay says:

    I’m not happy with the Republican crop this year. I’ve found many of the responses to be evasive (simply invoking states rights on social issues is not really answering the question of where they stand). I will not vote for Smith or Welch. This is too important a seat to nominate another potential Arlan. I would rather have Casey in there giving Obama the votes he needs than a Republican doing so and giving him the cover to say his bills were “bipartisan.”

  2. Alice E. Baer says:

    I found this man to be a very good candidate for the senate in Penna. . I hope and pray he will be the winner. We in Pa. need him. In fact the whole USA needs this kind of man.

  3. Brad says:

    I’m voting for Rohrer. I voted for him for Governor in 2010 and I know he’s a strong conservative. He actually wanted to abolish property taxes when he was a state legislator. Smith and Welch call each other Democrats all the time, so that just shows why Rohrer is the right choice.

    Sure, Rohrer voted to raise his pay, but that issue is a red herring. As far as I’m concerned, the politicians can pay themselves $10 million a year if they want, so long as they cut government spending down to what is truly essential. Even if we paid each member of Congress $10 million a year, that would still be less than the amount of money that was wasted on the Stimulus.

  4. PA SLAMMER says:

    Bob,

    Who cares how much money he donated. Is this the platform that he’s running on, WHO GAVE THE MOST MONEY TO CONSERVATIVE CAUSES.

    Wow, great platform.

    Tom Smith is a bully. I heard it myself at forums that he’s been at. He arrogant and unapproachable, and he can’t debate to save his soul.

  5. PA SLAMMER says:

    Bob,

    Do you think Sam Rohrer is a liberal? I just received a mailer from your good friend Tom, and he says that Sam Rohrer is a liberal. If Sam is a liberal, our crack establishment TEAM would have endorsed SAM!. What’s up with all the negative TRASH talk from your wonderful conservative friend, Tom Smith?

    Truth of the matter is, Tom Smith thinks that he can buy his way into the Republican party. That’s why he went to his good friend, Pat Toomey, to have Toomey talk to DeMint to stay out of the PA Senate race, or else he wouldn’t be doling out his bucks to Toomey next go around. The dirty little secret is now out and it’s pathetic.

  6. Jasper says:

    Michele Bachmann just endorsed Sam Rohrer.

    She writes:

    “I am writing to ask for your support for my friend Sam Rohrer.

    Sam is running for the U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania currently occupied by Democrat Senator Bob Casey. Polls have repeatedly shown that Sam is the strongest candidate in the race to defeat Casey but he is facing a primary challenge from two former Democrats who are trying to highjack our party’s nomination. Don’t let this happen… I’ve personally known Sam for many years now. He spent almost two decades in the legislature in Pennsylvania fighting for conservative issues like limited government, responsible spending, and maintaining personal freedoms even when he had to oppose career politicians and the establishment to do so.”

  7. PA SLAMMER says:

    Are we now censoring PoliticsPA Keegan?

  8. PA SLAMMER says:

    Why are posts being deleted from this thread. Last night there were 13, today there are 10.

    Whose pocket are you in Keegan, Toomey, DeMint or Smith?

  9. Tom Smith has contributed half a million dollars in the last 10 years to socially and fiscally conservative organizations and candidates which is more than all the other candidates combined and, I would say, more than all the readers of PoliticsPa combined!

    Tom Smith contributed to Swift Boats. Did you or any of the other candidates?

    How much have pro-lifers contributed to pro-life organizations? Tom Smith contributed to Pat Toomey in 2004 primary. This is a hard core, consistently conservative record.

  10. I just released the internal polling data for me for Senate. It shows me leading all these candidates for office. Go figure.

  11. John says:

    @Steve- Sam Rohrer is running on his experience and that he is the only “tested” conservative, therefore you should vote for him. So testing his “tested” conservative voting record is certainly not going negative, it is questioning his strength as a candidate and that his record is potentially his Achilles heel.

    @Molly S. Who defines marriage? Is marriage a function of the federal government? Who issues marriages licenses? Marc is giving a constitutional interpretation. He believes in the tenth amendment and that is an overriding principle here. Keep the feds out of marriage. Marc is a good man.
    Your remark about Tom Smith is intellectually dishonest.

  12. Molly S says:

    @ Tea Party
    You are absolutely right on regarding Smith (and Welch). Voting for candidates who have not yet made up their own political minds is foolish at best.
    Are you aware that in the PA Family Institute Voters guide released today Marc Scaringi stated that he opposes a marriage amendment to the US Constitution defining marriage as between a man and women? Just fyi…

    http://www.pafamily.org/_files/live/USCongressGuide.pdf

  13. Bea Turner says:

    While I will concede that Marc Scaringi is a conservative, Tom Smith is the true conservative that can be elected. There is no use being a conservative if you can’t convince people to vote for you. Republican and conservative are not synonyms. How did lifelong Republican Olympia Snowe’s vote for the Healthcare Bill work out for you?

  14. Tea Party Ted says:

    This is awful. Wake up fellow Republicans! Smith is a Democrat! Do we need a choice between two Democrats in November? Sounds like the surest path to Gay Marriage/ Sharia Law possible!! The only true constitutional conservative in the race is Marc Scaringi!! Go Marc!

  15. Steve says:

    Why is Smith going negative if his polls show that he is in the lead?

  16. John says:

    @IlikeSmith
    agreed. No phone or address to contact the campaign on the site.

  17. ILikeSmith says:

    I support Tom Smith. I would have considered Dave Christian but his website has only biographical information and pictures of him with Ronald Reagan. While I appreciate his biography, I do not vote for people whose positions on the issues are largely unknown.

  18. Greg says:

    Well I guess the undecided will go to David Christian. Because my internal poll says Chrsitian 100% Christian continues to outclass and outmanuever the other candidates. I doubt if any of the other candidates even have an inch of Christians International experience. The other candidates would be good on a state level but not federal.

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