Trib Poll: Peduto Holds 9 Point Lead over Wagner

Pittsburgh Mayoral candidate Bill Peduto’s momentum is building, according to a new Susquehanna Polling & Research poll commissioned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

42% of respondents threw their support behind Peduto, nine percentage points higher than former Auditor General Jack Wagner’s 33%. State Rep. Jake Wheatley and activist A.J. Richardson garnered 6% and 1%, respectively.

The results indicate a nine point gain for Peduto from the firm’s previous poll of the mayoral race released in early April, which showed Wagner leading Peduto 40% to 33%.Wagner-Peduto2-300x258

Peduto’s favorability numbers also got a boost since the previous poll, while Wagner’s fell. 55% of respondents viewed Peduto favorably, up from 52% in April. Wagner’s favorability, meanwhile, dropped to 51% from 57% in the previous poll.

The results of the poll are similar to another poll released by Keystone Analytics last Monday which showed Peduto leading the race with 39% to Wagner’s 32%.

According to SP&R President Jim Lee, the momentum in the mayoral race is on Peduto’s side.

“It looks to me whatever the Wagner folks have done might have backfired,” Lee told the Tribune-Review.“All the movement has clearly gone to Peduto.”

The results do not deter the Wagner campaign, however, and they believe they can sway undecided voters their way.

“We’ve put considerable resources since the poll was taken to change the conversation and I think that will show,” Wagner spokesman J.J. Abbott told the Trib. “We’ve had a strong week in terms of pushing back.”

Peduto’s campaign also expressed confidence going down the final stretch to Tuesday’s primary.

“We have been seeing an increased momentum in the field over the past three weeks,” a Peduto press release said. “Now our goal to turnout the vote on Tuesday becomes even more important.”

400 likely voters were surveyed on May 13-14 by Harrisburg-based and GOP-leaning firm Susquehanna Polling & Research. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.88%, within Peduto’s lead in the poll.

May 20th, 2013 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Local races, Poll, Top Stories | 6 Comments

6 thoughts on “Trib Poll: Peduto Holds 9 Point Lead over Wagner”

  1. Bono says:

    Jimmy lee hasn’t been right in his polling for eons.

  2. Oops says:

    Jack Wagner’s decision to run for Mayor instead of Governor will go down as one of the biggest political follies in history.

  3. Reasonable Rep says:

    The President won PA by 5 points you dolt. And there was considerable disagreement among experts who understand polling science a whole HELL of a lot more than you over what the actual turnout would look like.

    As far as your claim that the Trib is garbage, is that rooted in anything substantive? Or just the fact that you’re a Democrat and disagree with their editorial page?

    Lastly, in the event that pause your left-wing bomb throwing and join the us back on planet Earth, please note that the Trib COMMISSIONED the poll. That is, it was Susquehanna Polling that actually did the survey for the paper. Same way that the Post-Gazette might commission Mason-Dixon Polling to do a survey (which I’m sure you would treat as gospel because that paper happens publish works of a liberal cartoonist).

  4. You're Kidding Right? says:

    Tribune Review is garbage, thus Tribune Review polling is garbage. Remember when the Trib simpletons produced such noteworthy polling last fall indicating the presidential race was too close to call in PA? The paper is printed with dried up dung, hence the scatological smell wafting from cave of the editorial writers whose primary charge of duty is changing little Dickie Scaife’s diapers.

  5. frank says:

    reasonable rep well said but you left out wagners campaign was horrible he ran it just like his governors race.plus little lukey didnt help come down to pedutos victory party its not far from wagners lol

  6. Reasonable Rep says:

    Looks like I might have been wrong. My rationale all along has been that Peduto’s dedicated core of supporters wouldn’t be enough to get him to the 40-45% he will need to win. But the Peduto campaign has apparently cut into Wagner’s margins among seniors, union households, etc. just enough to give him an edge overall.

    I still say that voter turnout will be a big factor. Peduto enthusiasts will turn out regardless, so a low voter turnout overall favors Peduto. However, if voters outside the East End (especially in the South Hills/West End) turn out in high enough numbers, that just might be enough to save Wagner. Seems unlikely, though…

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