Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a narrow edge over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania among likely voters 50 years old and above, according to this latest poll.
An AARP poll of 50-plus likely voters in the state shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 50-to-46.
Biden’s advantage among this group can be attributed to his 11 point lead, 53-to-42, among likely voters 65-plus. The analysis describes 65-plus voters as the “key swing” in this age group. However, Trump does hold a 2 point advantage, 49-to-47, among likely voters between the ages of 50-to-64 years of age.
Biden holds just a 3 point lead over Trump with all 18-plus likely voters in the state.
These results would be a significant shift in comparison to 2016’s showdown between Trump and Sec. Hillary Clinton. According to CBS News exit polling, Trump carried voters 65 or older by 10 points, 54-to-44, over Clinton in the state. Trump also bested Clinton by 8 points, 53-to-45, among voters between the ages of 50-64 in the state. This exit polling from the previous presidential election showed that voters 50 years or older were 51% of the vote in the state.
This poll, conducted by Benenson Strategy Group and GS Strategy Group, conducted 1600 interviews with likely 2020 voters in the state from August 30 to September 8. The survey included an oversample of 1200 50+ voters for additional analysis, including 400 African-American 50+ voters. Data was weighed to ensure it was representative of the likely voting universe both overall and 50+.
The margin of error for the entire data is ±2.5% at the 95% confidence level. Among likely voters over the age of 50, the polling had a margin of ±2.9% at the 95% confidence level.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Benenson Strategy Group favors Democrats by an average of 0.7% and has an overall B/C grade.
The full Pennsylvania data from AARP can be found here.