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After Primary, PA Senate Race Stays Put at 18th of 20

Republicans nominated former coal company owner Tom Smith on Tuesday, but the self-funder’s name on the ballot didn’t inch PA up on the National Journal’s competitiveness scale compared to other races in the country.

Of the 20 races that have any feasible possibility of being competitive, Pennsylvania ranks just 18th. That’s the same as last month.

Writes the National Journal:

Republicans hoping to win control of the Senate need a net gain of four seats. To offset a likely loss in Maine and possible losses in Massachusetts and Nevada, the GOP should conservatively aim to pick up 6 seats. According to the National Journal, there are 12 Dem seats more likely to flip than PA. In order of likelihood, the top 6 are: Nebraska, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, Wisconsin and new Mexico.

The problem for PA Republicans? All 6 are cheaper to win than Pennsylvania. That makes Smith a tough sell to outside groups and super PACs looking to make a dent.

Casey’s strong name ID and relatively low disapproval make him an early favorite, although his job approval ratings have been moderate and even tepid. But he certainly has the early edge. He finished the first quarter with $5.2 million on hand, compared to just $2 million for Smith (and that doesn’t include Smith’s spending in the final 3 weeks of the primary).

That said, Smith has already loaned or given his campaign close to 6 million. His net worth is estimated north of $50 million. The biggest question for potential national investors is: how much more is he willing to go?

5 Responses

  1. We all believe the media and national pundits because they are so close to the ground, to what likely voters are really thinking, because they are so much smarter, geniuses all, than the rest of us and know so much, all knowing in fact, more than we do, and because they always get it right.

    As we all know, Incumbents never lose.

  2. I guess we will all get to see. Casey is weak and an Obama sock puppet. He is going down. The primary split up the votes and street level efforts quite a bit. It won’t be that way come November. Casey is going down just like his buddy at 1600. The ground does count and Smith will have the ground game.

  3. Make no mistake: Smith’s supporters will do whatever it takes financially to win back Casey’s seat.

  4. tom smith is going to lose and everyone is going to laugh at how much money he wasted on his consultants

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