Bloomberg: Trump Faces Uphill Climb in PA

Pennsylvania remains one of the most crucial states in this year’s presidential election.

According to FiveThirtyEight, PA ranks second (behind only Florida) in their rankings of possible tipping-point states this November.

Furthermore, the Trump campaign has asserted for months that they believe PA can be part of a Rust Belt strategy that will turn traditionally blue states and provide a path to the White House.

In response, Steven Yaccino and Sasha Issenberg of Bloomberg Politics examined the electorates of the Rust Belt’s three biggest electoral prizes: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

They found PA will likely be the hardest state to move because of the gulf of potential Democratic and Republican voters.

bloomberg-graphic

“Trump certainly needs to change the arithmetic in Pennsylvania,” Yaccino and Issenberg write. “The state hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since the late 1980s, and the math is straightforward: Democrats simply have more potential voters. They can count on a base of nearly 1.69 million votes, and—thanks in part to overwhelming support from African-Americans in Philadelphia—another 1.37 million less-reliable voters who can be mobilized through get-out-the-vote work.”

They point out that Southwest PA is a fertile ground for Trump to pick up disaffected Democrats, but as we’ve noted, while the GOP is likely to make gains in the Appalachian West the tide is against them in the Acela East.

Yaccino and Issenberg found that Ohio and even Michigan are much more likely to flip to Trump. This would be particularly significant as Pennsylvania hasn’t voted more Democratic than Michigan in a presidential contest since 1992.

Ultimately, with so few “persuadable targets”, Republicans must find a way to appeal to the suburbs of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia without alienating one or the other. Given the changing dynamics of each of those regions, they have quite the task ahead of them.

17 Responses

  1. Only the Democrat idiots in SouthEast PA and FilthaMafia would have voted themselves a city income tax, a county income tax and increase in the state income tax, a huge increase in the PA turnpike taxes [ie;tolls]in perpetuity, and then back Crooked Hillary who guarantees that she will hike their federal income taxes! What a bunch of clown idiots these Democrats are! Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha!!!!!!

  2. Let’s point out the fact Diano that the Washinton Post is owned by Amazon owner and multi-billionaire and unapologetic Clinton supporter Jeff Bezos. It is an anti-Trump, pro-Clinton propaganda machine where Clinton does no wrong and Trump is the second coming of Adolph Hitler. Sure, believe what you want, but I will stand by my original story as it is and the fact remains Bill Clinton received nearly 18 million of State Department money in the form of a kickback. Too bad you drink the Clinton kool-aid sucker!

  3. Tim-

    There is ZERO evidence that Hillary “awarded” Laureate anything, let alone $155 million. The owners may have claimed all sorts of connections with the Clintons to enhance their credibility, but the Secretary of State doesn’t control budgets and spending. You need to look at Congress for that.

    From the Washington Post investigation: “There is no evidence that Laureate received special favors from the State Department in direct exchange for hiring Bill Clinton, but the Baltimore-based company had much to gain from an association with a globally connected ex-president and, indirectly, the United States’ chief diplomat.”

    That’s a big “Duh” on Bill Clinton being popular and people wanting to pay him a lot to have an association. One of the perks of being a popular ex-president. Companies probably pay George Bush to hide any association he has with them.

    Let’s hope Wikileaks releases Trump’s tax returns or insider documents from Trump University scam.

  4. Diano, you’re a first class prick. Trumps failed business venture known as Trump University pales in comparison to the outright theft of US taxpayer dollars by Bill and Hillary Clinton in the “Laureate University” Scam. You see, Hillary, while acting in her official capacity as Sec of State, awarded the owners of Laureate University [a for profit school in debt to the tune of nearly $5 billion dollars(typical liberal operation)}a handsome sum of $155 million. Well, in return, Laureate made Bill Clinton it’s “Honorary Chancellor” and in addition to the title he received close to $18 million of that State Department money when he agreed to lend his name to the school to give it an air of credibility. Now this it outright theft of millions in taxpayer money in the form of a kickback in my opinion since this was a grant and not a loan and did not need to be repaid.
    now listen here Little Davey, you can go on and on about Trumps’ failed business venture but you fail to mention one peep about the kickback Bill Clinton received from Laureate University. An $18 million dollar kickback after Bubbas wife Crooked Hillary awarded Laureate a $155 million dollar grant to Laureate! Now I ask you, you little smartass prick, mr. know it all democrat shill, “Who is the real criminal?”!
    Oh yeah, by the way demoshill, when the Clintons left the whitehouse, they loaded the moving van with antiques, paintings and artifacts worth tens of thousands thinking that they owned them! They were owned by the American people and were force to return them. They’re kleptos from the word go! Thieves, criminals, bandits! Your heroes – filthy scum!

  5. Well, if we had a real Attorney General in there instead of a political appointee and an FBI director who was a real lawman instead of part of the New World Order elite, crooke Hillary would have been indicted in a heartbeat and on her way to trial. She would have been convicted of numerous felonies and would have been sentence to a long stretch at Club Fed. Since this is not the case, the best revenge is to see to it that the Trumpmeister wins on November 8th and you Democrats don’t have to worry about higher Federal income taxes or a doubling of your Obamacare premiums for the time being. But let’s say crooked Hillary wins and your income taxes soar, she borrows trillions more and spends that money with no plan to ever repay it on top of the $20 trillion half of which was borrowed by your leftist hero Obama, well then the country is totally screwed. Sure you’ll be happy because the stroke prone old granny won, but you will be crying every time you see that an additional 10% of your paycheck is missing so crooked Hillary can just give it away to the people who don’t work and freeload off the government! And you think that’s a swell idea don’t you? What a bunch of idiots you people are! eally pathetic! All you Democrat morons in Philadelphia and it’s suburbs love Hillary because you like geting free stuff from the government! You’re a bunch of socialists who don’t mind when someone else pays for the goodies you get as long as it doesn’t come out of your pocket! You phoney-ram-a hypocrites! You have no right to criticize me while your leaders commit theft from every hardworking, taxpaying American so they can give it away to some idle, malingering, leech sucking off the system because they don’t “feel” like working!

  6. “Pennsylvanias are not interested in voting for a criminal felon who has been outed.” ….
    — Trump Foundation (illegal campaign contributions and using charity money to buy personal stuff for Trump)

    — Trump University (defrauded thousands of people)

    — Trump Organization (failed to pay contractors and sued by thousands of them)

  7. Tim – weren’t you saying the same thing about “when the FBI and Justice Department finally announce charges against Clinton”? You were 100 percent certain that they definitely, totally were gonna do it, any day now, any day, can feel it! Until they didn’t.

    Or are you just parodying an unthinking Trumpster who is getting high on his own supply of BS?

  8. I do not see the word “retard” in Ha’s post. Can you read, Denny? Seems like he called you a “FOXtard.” So sick of you PC police. Telling everybody what they can say and can’t say. Anywho – if you don’t want to get arrested, you may not want to threaten to punch people on a blog. Pretty stupid. Actually – Ha probably should have called you a retard. You certainly sound like one.

  9. The fact that Ohio has moved so much toward Trump bodes well for western Pennsylvania.as Michigan and Wisconsin and even Iowa move closer to Trump more paths to 270 open up. But PA is big. Trump needs to closer to within two points and use voter enthusiasm to make up the difference

  10. If I ever have the doleful duty of meeting HaHaHa in person, I shall punch him directly in the nose for his wilful and persistent use of “retard.” He is a tinkling brass, a sounding cymbal, one to be ignored by rational human beings. And he is a punk and an ass to boot.

  11. Lock him up! Lock him up! Lock him up!

    Trump paid off a prosecutor to avoid being investigated/arrested.

  12. She’s sick!….. Lock her up!!……. Wikileaks …… Bill …. …. …. BENGHAZI … … …

    But , in the back of your little retarded minds, you all know that she will soon be President.

    LMAO @ you poor, pathetic FOXtards.

  13. Trumpy will pull this off once the Wikileaks Clinton E-mail nukes are detonated and she becomes toast! The landscape will resemble Hiroshima, a devastated wasteland of what once was and Trumpy will coast to victory in a landslide. Pennsylvanias are not interested in voting for a criminal felon who has been outed. She’s toast. She’ll be a crispy critter ready for hospice! Take THAT Crooked Hillary and all you dumber than dirt democrat drones!

  14. Good riddance to Rob Gleason. He supports Trump who will lose PA. He loses State Supreme Court and loses local races in his county.

  15. Here in PA, we will do our part to make sure the National Embarrassment (Trump) goes no further. He is a disgrace to my Republican Party.

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