Bognet Poll: Bognet 46, Cartwright 45

Cartwright-Bognet

A newly released internal poll from GOP candidate Jim Bognet shows him with a narrow lead over Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) in the race for the 8th Congressional District. 

The survey commissioned by the GOP challenger’s campaign and conducted by Cygnal shows Bognet leading Cartwright by 1 point, 46-to-45. According to the New York Post, the polling interviewed 400 likely voters from June 23-25 and has a ± 4.7% margin of error. 

The specific poll showing the matchup between Bognet and Cartwright was first reported by the Washington Free Beacon.

The analysts at FiveThirtyEight give the pollster an overall B+ grade. 

The memo released from the Bognet campaign compared these results with internal polling conducted by the Tarrance Group in July 2020, which showed Cartwright leading Bognet by 9 points at that point in the Democratic incumbent’s previous reelection bid.

Cartwright bested Bognet by 3.5 points in 2020. 

PoliticsPA is seeking comment from the Cartwright campaign on this poll. 

In addition to the head-to-head matchup between Bognet and Cartwright, the internal poll from the GOP challengers campaign shows that President Joe Biden’s favorability ratings in the Northeast Pa district have dropped over the past 2 years. 

58% of voters in the district have an unfavorable view of Biden, while 41% have a favorable opinion of the 46th president. Biden received 48% of the vote in these boundaries in 2020. 

The memo from the Bognet campaign shows that in July 2020, 51% of likely voters in the district had a favorable view of Biden, while 46% had an unfavorable view of the Scranton-native. 

The memo from the Bognet campaign claims that Biden’s drop in popularity in the district “isn’t just a problem for Joe Biden,” but adding that the president has “dragged the entire Democratic Party down with him.” 

Three national ratings outlets show that the race for the 8th District is up for grabs. The Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the race as a Toss-Up.

11 Responses

  1. So it’s August and the poll was taken in the end of June????? I’m thinking somebody is low on campaign funds and needs to gin up some $$$ to get a couple of billboards and a few radio ads.

  2. This poll tells me that Cartwright is ahead by about 5 percent if all Bogie Bognet can do is get a 1 percent lead in a homer poll. If you consider abortion rights, Trump floundering, gas prices dropping and so on you have a good environment for Cartwright. On top of that what this poll really says beneath the surface is that this race between Cartwright and Bognet is a get out the vote game. If Cartwright gets big numbers in Lackawanna and takes advantage of Carbon County now being completely in his district, he can offset Alabama ie Luzerne County which has taken a hard right and is totally red—they want to get rid of drop boxes for mail in. For Cartwright the race will be won getting out the vote in Lackawanna and Carbon.

    1. Yeah, no. Not even close. Cartwright will defeat this Trump acolyte, again. In fact, he’ll win by a bigger margin this time. That “poll” is nothing but wishful thinking.

  3. Bognet releases a poll where he is winning. I just released a poll where I am winning for President. What is Bognet supposed to do? Release a poll where he is losing? Dems produce big abortion rights votes this dooms Bognet.

  4. What news!!! Hahaha. Internal poll of GOP candidate says he is going to win. Did he ask all the pone bank in his office? LOL

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