Cook Moves PA to “Leans Democratic”

Cook Political Report 5-5-16Donald Trump has moved Pennsylvania from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic”.

That’s the conclusion of Charlie Cook, Amy Walter and David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.

“This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year,” they wrote. “Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate – women, millennials, independents and Latinos – make him the initial November underdog.”

“As a result, we are shifting 13 ratings on our Electoral Vote scorecard, almost all of them favoring Democrats,” they declared. “Our assessments are based on publicly available polling, data on demographic change and private discussions with a large number of pollsters in both parties. Much could change, but undecided voters begin more hostile to Trump than Clinton.”

Pennsylvania is one of five states that they switched from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic” (Colorado, Florida, Virginia and Wisconsin were the others).

In fact, of the 13 changes, 12 of them favor Clinton.

Cook Chart 5-5-16

Earlier this week, CNN released their first electoral map which also categorized PA as a “Leans Democratic” state.

5 Responses

  1. Our #BrokenSystem has made these ‘projections’ somewhat silly.

    Here is one I did in Dec 2014, as part of study on the silliness of the Electoral College…before any candidates were known and none but HRC was even presumed. No conflicts:

    Here you see mine from the day before Cruz and Kasich dropped out. True Rubio was out, but him in (or Dem O’Malley) would not have changed this.

    I only have OH and FL as toss ups, although if Clinton I give it to Trump, with TheBern I keep it in play. I have MI as GOP, but I have taken mucho guff for that and acknowledge it has as much chance of going blue as VA does going red.

    Other than that, no conflicts either:

  2. Philadelphia’s elected DA leans Republican:

    He hangs out at the Union League. Wears bow ties. Hires racists and perverts. Protects racists and perverts. Demotes females who speak out.

    And then there’s this:

    Everyone calling for him to fire Frank Fina hasn’t read this. Seth Williams has tied his future to Frank Fina. He is on an island. No one in Philly likes him or trusts him. He knows that his $$$ has dried up. So – he is morphing into a corrupt Republican.

    Real slimy chameleon that Seth Williams is. And a real POS.

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