The up-and-down nature of polling continues, as the latest Emerson College Polling survey of Pennsylvania shows Democratic candidates John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro with single-digit leads that are right at the three-percent margin of error.
Fetterman, the Commonwealth’s lieutenant governor, has a four-point advantage over Republican challenger Mehmet Oz, 48-44. Three percent of the responses were for “someone else,” while five percent were undecided.
Although the overall difference between the candidates is four points, when asked who they expected to win, respondents gave Fetterman a 56-44 advantage.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling noted, “Three out of four urban voters support Fetterman whereas 59% of rural voters support Oz. Suburban voters are the battleground for this election, they are split 47% support Fetterman and 47% support Oz.”
Shapiro has a slim three-point edge over GOP opponent Doug Mastriano, 47-44, with three percent choosing “someone else” and six percent still undecided.
In a similar manner to the Senate poll, those responding to the poll thought that Shapiro would win the governor’s mansion by a 57-43 count, despite how they would vote.
When asked their views of the candidates, Fetterman has a 48% favorable number and a 46% unfavorable mark for a plus-2 rating. Oz, the celebrity doctor, comes in at 41-56 for a minus-15 number.
On the governor’s side, Shapiro, the current Attorney General, is plus-11 at 52-41, while Mastriano, the state senator from Franklin County, has a minus-4 rating (45-49).
“While Mastriano’s unfavorables are not as intense as Oz’s unfavorables, he faces the upward challenge of running against Shapiro, the most popular candidate on the ballot who also holds statewide office,” Kimball remarked.
Emerson also asked voters about their thoughts on Fetterman’s May stroke and Oz’s longtime residency in New Jersey.
Sixty-eight percent of the respondents said that Fetterman’s health scare would not make a difference on their vote, while 22 percent said it makes them less likely to vote for the former mayor of Braddock.
The numbers regarding Oz’s Garden State residence are not as favorable. A majority (51%) of respondents said it makes them less likely to cast their vote for him, while 40 percent say it makes little or no difference.
According to Emerson, President Joe Biden has a 39% approval rating and a 57 percent disapproval mark.
The Emerson College Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters was conducted August 22-23, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely general election voters, n=1,034, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.