F&M Poll: Fetterman Has 3-Point Edge on Oz; Shapiro Leads Mastriano By 14

Fetterman-Shapiro

One race is getting tighter while the other has shown separation.

Those are the takeaways from the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll that shows Democrats John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro still in front in their respective races.

Fetterman has a 45-42 percent lead over Republican opponent Mehmet Oz in the chase for the U.S. Senate, while five percent were undecided. Three of the last four surveys have shown the celebrity doctor within 2-3 points of the lieutenant governor of the Keystone State.

Shapiro has a 51-37 advantage over GOP candidate Doug Mastriano as the two vie for the governor’s mansion. Four of the most recent five polls have shown the Pennsylvania Attorney General in front by double digits.

Oz has reduced a nine-point deficit (45-36) to three since the last F&M survey in August. He has also improved his favorability numbers though still underwater from a minus-30 to a minus-19.

Fetterman’s numbers have slid, falling from a plus-7 to a minus-6. The survey showed that respondents still feel that the former mayor of Braddock best understands the concerns of Pennsylvanians more than Oz, 51-29, and is closest to their views on social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage (44-33). The doctor is favored when it comes to the question of changing government policies in a way that will improve respondents’ economic situation (39-33).

Four in five (77%) voters are aware of Fetterman’s health problems, while fewer are aware of Oz’s recent move to the state (60%).

Shapiro has expanded his margin from 12 (48-36) to 14 points since the last survey by the Lancaster, Pa. college, although more respondents say they are still making up their mind than last month (16-14). The former Montgomery County commissioner is favored by those surveyed on understanding concerns of Pennsylvanians (49-31), closest to their view on social issues (49-32) and will improve economic situations (36-34).

Shapiro receives a larger share of Democrats (83%) than Mastriano receives among Republicans (69%), and Shapiro also leads among independent voters 54% to 35%.

Forty-nine percent of respondents answered definitely or probably true that the Founding Fathers intended the United States to be a Christian nation, while 51% agreed that the country’s founding documents are based on biblical principles.

In the generic ballot, Republicans hold a 43-39 advantage – two points better than the August survey (44-42) – although undecideds rose from 14 to 19 percent.

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews  conducted September 19 – 25, 2022. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall. The data included in this release represent the responses of 517 registered Pennsylvania voters. The sample error for this survey is +/- 5.6 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered.

12 Responses

  1. No signs from Oz in Erie County, which I take to be an ultimate bellweather. Tons for Fetterman there. Unless Oz is getting a TON of split ticket voters in SEPA, he’s not winning.

    1. If Lamb couldn’t even win one county in the primary, I doubt he would’ve been that formidable in a general election.

  2. Fetterman needs to double down on the carpetbagging issue and brand Oz more as a hypocrite on abortion and gay rights rather than being hard right on those issues. You want to discourage conservatives from jumping back on the Oz bandwagon.

  3. And this is why I voted for Connor Lamb in the primary. Fetterman’s campaign better get some new ads up in October. AND STOP BEING THE “We Go High” people – put up ads about Oz dual citizenship and the fact that he is a Muslim. Oz is a huckster that could pull off a razor thin win, same as he did in May – and guess what…. He’s a member of the US Senate for 6 years.

    Governor race is OVER. Mastriano is an idiot and the Republicans are getting what they deserve.

      1. the problem is his dual citizenship, not his religion. But his religion would be a huge negative to rightwing, if they knew about it. MAGA hates muslims, so how can they support doc Oz, who is a pill quack anyway and scammer.

        1. Republicans don’t care. He’s a warm body in an R seat who will toe the line down to the abyss

    1. Oz is a Turkish citizen. That’s a security risk. He lives in NJ. No one seriously thinks he lives in PA. Both of these should disqualify him. Being Muslim is of no concern. The issues they are attacking him on need to be addressed, as they are distorting and taking out of context. The “felons” they always refer to are brothers convicted because they unknowingly picked up an acquaintance after he had committed a crime. Therefore, when he was arrested, he was with them, even though they weren’t with him when he did the crime, nor did they even know about it. If this was a movie, you’d all be rooting for them, ala Shawshank Redemption.

    1. If they only could take one of doc’s miracle cures they would only understand doc all the faster!

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