Inside Elections: Lamb’s Race Shifts From Likely Dem To Solid Dem

The race in the 17th Congressional District is now safely in the Democratic incumbents favor, according to the latest ratings from the analysts at Inside Elections

Rep. Conor Lamb’s (D-Allegheny) reelection bid against GOP challenger Sean Parnell has moved from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic in the latest ratings update on Oct. 28

Although President Donald Trump narrowly carried the boundaries of the 17th District in 2016 over Sec. Hillary Clinton, former Vice President Joe Biden is “poised to win” the district and they say that Lamb has a sizable lead in his race as well. 

“The president seems to hold a personal grudge against Lamb, who won a high-profile special election in early 2018 that presaged the Democratic House takeover later in the year,” writes Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin.

“Trump has gone out of his way to boost GOP nominee Sean Parnell on Twitter, and gave him a prime speaking slot at the RNC,” Gonzales and Rubashkin continue. “But Biden is poised to win the district and the congressman is up by double digits. Move from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic.” 

In March 2018, Lamb captured the national spotlight when he upset Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone in the old Trump-friendly 18th district, vacated by Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Allegheny). He won a full term in Congress in Nov. 2018 by defeating Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Allegheny) by just over 12.5 points in the district’s present boundaries.

Two other national ratings outlets show Lamb having the advantage in the race, although this is the lone outlet to describe the race in PA17 as Solid Democratic. 

The Cook Political Report lists the race as Leans Democratic, while Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball all have the race in PA17 as Likely Democratic.

After this ratings change, no Democratic incumbents are in danger of losing their seat in Pennsylvania, according to Inside Elections.

Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-York) race against Democrat Eugene DePasquale in the 10th Congressional District is listed as a Toss-Up, while Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s (R-Bucks) race against Democrat Christina Finello is listed as Leans Republican, according to Inside Elections.

See the full ratings update here.

5 Responses

  1. Even with that wonderful P-G Endorsement, Parnell can’t make it happen. Maybe Trump needs at Mt. Lebanon rally for the faithful and push Parnell across the Finish Line? He can park Air Force One on Rt. 19!

  2. Parnell is a Trump stooge and that isn’t working any more. His Fox Nation interview said it all!

  3. Parnell was an opportunist who moved into the district after announcing that he would run. Carpetbagger extraordinaire!!

  4. It’s a big deal and obviously a sign that Lamb is a good politician. Not easy to make that district solid Dem and Inside Elections does not sugar coat at all.

  • Who are you voting for in the PA Supreme Court race?

    • Dan McCaffery (61%)
    • Carolyn Carluccio (37%)
    • Still undecided (2%)

    Total Voters: 344

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