PA-8: Internal Poll: Fitzpatrick 50% Santarsiero 38%

brian-fitzpatrickBrian Fitzpatrick is in the lead according to a survey conducted on behalf of his campaign.

Communication Concepts found GOP nominee Brian Fitzpatrick with a twelve point advantage over his Democratic opponent State Rep. Steve Santarsiero, 50% to 38%.

That lead extends across all demographics and areas of the district.

Internal polls are always tricky, however, because we usually don’t have access to the full findings. Therefore, we don’t know how questions were asked and what the demographic makeup of the respondents was.

For example, Santarsiero Campaign Manager Eric Goldman seemed to indicate to Tom Sofield of the Levittown News that Brian Fitzpatrick was benefiting from the popularity of his older brother, retiring incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick.

“Once voters know that Brian is not his brother Mike, but instead was recruited by Republican Party bosses to move to Pennsylvania and that Brian supports Donald Trump for president, wants to defund Planned Parenthood, and plans to vote for a budget that would slash Social Security and Medicare, there is no doubt that the voters of the Eighth Congressional District will elect Steve Santarsiero as our next Congressman,” Goldman told Sofield.

Fitzpatrick’s familial background, which he emphasized in his first TV ad, could work both ways for him. Voters may be drawn to him because they supported his brother in the past or, as Goldman notes, they could be persuaded that Republicans are trying to pass him off as his brother.

Presidential Contest

The Communication Concepts poll found that 42% of respondents support Hillary Clinton while 37% back Donald Trump. Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein received 7% and 3% respectively. 11% of voters were undecided.

Additionally, Clinton recorded a 37/57 favorable/unfavorable split compared to Trump’s 38/54 split.

The 8th Congressional District represents all of Bucks County as well as parts of upper Montgomery County.

This survey was conducted by Communication Concepts from September 6th to September 7th. They polled 416 likely voters through live phone interviews with landlines and cell phones. The partisan breakdown was 43% Republican, 42% Democratic and 15% Independent. The gender breakdown was 47% male, 53% female. The margin of error is +/- 5.5%.

11 Responses

  1. Funny the polling released to my GOP IN DElco claims they polled 70 % republicans in Fitzs district. His numbers should be higher than what was released. Tom Killions numbers are more believable hes down to Marty Molloy an unknown but a very like able person. Killion down by 19 points. Glad to see Delco not fabricating numbers like Fitz.

  2. Eric Goldman appears to be a shady character. Even more so than Slippery Steve. Did he work for Patrick Murphy?

  3. Great to see that the people of 8th district are responding well to Fitzpatrick’s message. We need more public servants like him in congress.

  4. From a polling perspective it definitely needs more weighting to Independents since the district has a higher number. It also isn’t a reach to think that Hillary is ahead by 5% in Bucks. That said, I believe the numbers are directionally correct. Oh and I find it humorous that the D’s are trying to play the Kevin Strause(sp)card on Bucks born and raised Brian Fitzpatrick (who left to serve in the FBI in counter terrorism and political corruption units). Is their former candidate who never stepped foot in the district until 6 months before the primary still living in the district??

  5. Poll seems a little high on the Republican respondents, should have polled more Democrats. Not implying it would have flipped the poll, but internal polling is generally biased to the candidate paying for it, and I imagine BRIAN would like to see more independent polls before he starts measuring the drapes (although he could choose a color in the mean time).

  6. This poll is wrong but knowing how the National Dems like to abandon their candidates in the 8th district, they will push for Santarsiero up till the beginning of October and then pull the money back for more likely wins.
    In the end it will be closer than this poll and Fitzpatrick will cruise to a solid 6 point victory.

    Fitzpatrick by 6
    Mike Fitzpatrick by 36

  7. Santar-zero must be hoping to jump on Clinton coattails since he can’t speak to his record – of not doing anything in Harrisburg for 8 years.

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