PA-Gov: FiveThirtyEight Forecasts Corbett’s Re-Election Odds

Tom-Corbett-upsetNumbers never lie, but Governor Corbett should hope they are at least a little off.

Coming off some recent bad polling news, the Corbett-Cawley campaign is likely looking for some good numerical news. Unfortunately for them, they won’t find it at FiveThirtyEight.

The popular site run by Nate Silver ran a model on the nation’s Governor’s races that takes into account some of the common errors inherent to polling. Their study found Democrats with a favorable battlefield, in contrast to the Senate where Republicans hold the edge.*

The analysis run by author Harry Enten found that of all the gubernatorial races between two candidates, Pennsylvania is the fourth-most Democratically favored (behind New Hampshire, New York and California).

Enten compared Corbett to Illinois Governor Pat Quinn, a Democrat who is also dealing with budget troubles but whom the author said still has a chance.

“The same probably cannot be said for Pennsylvania’s Republican governor, Tom Corbett,” Enten wrote. “Still dealing with the fallout from the Penn State sex-abuse scandal (among other problems), Corbett is down nearly 20 percentage points to his Democratic opponent, Tom Wolf. To come back from this deficit, Corbett probably needs Wolf to say something outlandish.”

Of course, there are still four months to go and polls can change, although according to FiveThirtyEight, the Governor is going to need them to start changing soon.

*This is partly due to term lengths, as the previous gubernatorial elections were held four years ago in the heavily GOP-titled 2010 election cycle. The previous Senate elections were held six years ago in the 2008 election cycle when Democrats prospered.

40 Responses

  1. havent heard all people running but corbett is suppose to be for schools being a teacher but first place he takes away from and people afraid if dem get in he agrees on what obama says like just recent same sex marriage from pa beginning they didnt believe in went what bible says yet he says since obama and hi judges say it ok it fine with him his own religon is against of course look at pittsburghs mayor he is even going to perform marriage his self once a month

  2. Robert-
    BTW, I see that this thread has moved to the second page of the site, so I won’t bother pursuing it any further.

    If you feel compelled to “get the last word in”, have at it, but I won’t be responding or even looking at this thread again. So, any response will just be to yourself.

  3. Robert-
    1) No. You claimed I got it all wrong, when it fact I got some right. So, burden’s on you.

    2) He devoted such minimal effort that it’s a stretch to call it “campaigning”. Jo Ellen Litz running in the Dem primary did 100 times as much campaigning as Guzzardi.

    3) I agree with the sort of liberalism espoused by people like Elizabeth Warren. I came to my beliefs independently and thus I support/prefer candidates who have similar ones. It’s not talking points.

    4) The IRS and a lot of government agencies have old crappy computer systems that fail on a regular basis. This is neither new nor shocking nor proof of a conspiracy. (Romney made a point of buying computers from his administration so no one could read the hard drives. That’s more suspicious.)

    5) How is not making or not making a prediction a critique?

    6) I’ve got my “final” numbers for 2014 (premium statements) and I’m paying less than last year (and 20% to 30% less than I was 3 years ago). And with better coverage. I was stuck on my old plan, paying higher premiums, because I was concerned that if I switched insurance, and went to a doctor, that any new problem would be falsely labeled “pre-existing” condition, as an excuse to drop insurance. Once the ACA prevented companies from dropping coverage for that, I was able to switch and save thousands a year.

    7) The link is direct: the “small” government philosophy doesn’t regulate or consider involving itself in regulating the economy. This laissez-faire attitude is the core of small government thinking and the direct cause of the stock market crash. You can’t praise CC for implementing small government without taking the blame for the subsequent economic collapse that resulted from it.
    Under FDR strong regulation was put in place, which stood for about 70 years. Shortly after the regulation was gutted, we had another crash due to “small government” laissez-faire thinking.
    It’s easy to connect the dots here. There are only two.

    8) The problem with the mortgages were that the banks were scamming customers with higher than necessary interest rate schemes. So, it is NOT that the banks were pushed to give out loans to unqualified people, but rather that they gave out variable rate loans, instead of fixed ones, while assuring (lying) to customers that the rates would never exceed 4% to 5% percent. Then they jacked up the rates, doubling or tripling the monthly mortgage payments to people who were able to pay the original mortgage payments. It was a bait-and-switch scheme by the banks. They deliberately mislead home buyers into plans they couldn’t afford.
    Prior to the collapse, I was looking for a house, in the $200K range. The bank loan officer tried to determine the most I could afford each month, and talk me into going for a $300K house and bigger mortgage. They were causing a bubble by “pricing” houses based on what people could afford in monthly mortgage payments, and jacking up the loan amounts. But, any increase in the interest rates would put people in default, as the banks were being irresponsible in their lending practices by overextending the borrowers.
    Also, they were talking advantage of people by quoting non-competitive prices to the poor and less educated that they were supposed to be helping get a home THAT THEY COULD AFFORD. Instead, they took advantage of them and manipulated the system.
    Later, major banks FORGED and back dated mortgage agreements that they didn’t actually possess to foreclose on homeowners.

    9) The so-called jobs bills by the House, were all filled with non-jobs poison pills. Here is an analysis from 2012 about the bills up to that point that debunks your claim that these were acceptable job creation bills that the Senate should have take up:
    crooksandliars.com/karoli/gops-claim-house-passed-30-jobs-bills-bogus

    10) Ayn Rand is not a “intellectual pillar” to anyone with an intellect. (So, I guess she can be a pillar to you.)
    In Atlas Shrugged, she advocates for essentially the gold standard. Which is simply naive and foolish in modern economics (though many naive and foolish people still like it).

  4. @ DD:

    1. Guzzardi’s Petitions. If you make an assertions, it is up to you to document it; it’s not up to me to “prove a negative.”

    2. Guzzardi campaigned. You may critique what and how, but you can’t deny he devoted energies to this effort.

    3. Critiquing BHO. You proved my point by never deviating from Dem talking-points; so much for the independent-mind.

    4. BHO’s Scandal-Sheet. You claim there have been no new scandals, and you claim IRS-scrutiny was bipartisan; you ignore the upcoming mandate that the IRS explain how LL’s ‘puter crashed, etc., and you ignore the quotes that clearly targeted conservatives.

    5. Prediction Predilection. You just can’t get yourself to critique a fellow-Dem; this is not surprising among reflex-libs. {I restore 100 points from my score, subtract 100 from yours, and provide myself 1000 bonus-points for bothering to persevere in the face of bald-faced deceit and misrepresentation.}

    6. Health Premiums. The final numbers won’t be released for ~2 months, but the preliminaries for ’14 are damning, as illustrated by ’13 data [enhanced by mandates, no matter how lofty the intent].

    7. CC’s conservatism. You fail to link small government with Stock-Crash…because you can’t.

    8. Liberalized Mortgages. These indeed started under Carter and flourished under Clinton; they were perpetuated under Dems like Barney, despite efforts by Bush to inject sanity.

    http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2008/10/20081009-10.html

    9. Sluggish Economy. The R’s in the House have passed many jobs-bills that have been stalled in the Senate by Reid; some feel he is reluctant to burden any of his colleagues with a vote that could injure their chances in the midterms, thereby again placing party-politics over the welfare of the country.

    10. Ayn Rand is an intellectual pillar that the right-wing admires on economic theory, and other independent thinkers respect.

  5. 1) No I don’t. When I read the judge’s ruling, I recognized several names that I had stated were not valid. Digging up won’t change the fact that I was right, and that you ignore any facts presented to you. You should go through the posts. Read my statements. Then apologize for being wrong. Consider it penance.
    2) Visiting a gun show and a farm show are not “accomplishments”. They are recreational activities.
    3) BHO.
    a) my critique of Obama is that he’s not further to the left.
    b) your original points were about my not critiquing the 13th congressional race. When I demonstrated you were full of sh*t, you then tried changing the argument to BHO. Nice try.
    4 & 5) What new “scandals”? The so-called scandals that Issa and his pack of fools have been pursuing have gone nowhere. Every Republican lie on Benghazi has been repeated debunked. The Issa’s latest attempt to hold White House staff in contempt has been shattered by a Ronald Reagan WH policy position. The IRS scandal is bogus because groups from both sides were investigated.
    But, topics 4 & 5 (merged because they were really a single point) were about positions of the candidates in the 13th, not Obama. So, once again you attempt revisionism on your own arguments.
    I deduct 100 points from your score.

    6) This is the first year, and premiums are down. One article you cited is a prediction from 2013, not an actual/factual statement about how premiums did turn out: lower.
    The second is a a proposed, again not actual, increase requested/suggest by some insurers in Louisianan. And, their stated reason is that: more people are getting basic services.
    Oh. The. Horror. People actually using their health insurance get well, after insurers spent decades dropping their coverage for daring to get sick or have a pre-existing condition.
    But, as usual, no actual proof on your part of widespread double-digit increases.

    7) You dolt. CC’s small-government conservative was the major policy that was defective. Do you even bother to read?

    8) Carter? You are trying to pin this on Carter (who served for 4 years, prior to 8 years of Reagan and 4 of Bush Sr, and 8 years of Clinton) when the market crashed at the end of 8 years for Bush Jr?
    Wow. I had no idea Carter was so effective that the was able two serve only 4 years, yet cause a crash 28 years later.

    Clearly, you are abusing your prescription pad by ordering yourself hallucinogens.

    9) Of course the recovery has been “sluggish”. Boehner and Cantor in the House, and Mitch McConnell in the Senate have done nothing but obstruct Obama’s efforts. They’ve wasted dozens of votes against ObamaCare, while failing to implement jobs bills, raising the minimum wage, regulating wall street, etc.
    The GOP in congress have failed at every turn and refused to take the kinds of actions that Republicans used to take in bipartisan efforts to help the economy. They have made it quite clear that they wanted economic failure, just so they can blame it on Obama. They’ve even scuttled some of their own recommendations when Obama agreed to them, just to oppose Obama.

    10) Ayn Rand is the non-intellectual pillar that the right-wing admires on economic theory.

  6. @ DD:

    {My comment is awaiting moderation because of two embedded hyperlinks, so it’s being provided again after having broken-up the cites.}

    “Your comment is awaiting moderation.”

    @ DD:

    You continue to stray from the topic-at-hand,and one must assume it’s a purposeful pursuit; ignoring the ad-hominem obfuscation, these are the finalized bullet-points. {Score: “Sklaroff 28, DD 0.”}

    1. Guzzardi’s Petitions. You claim I erred regarding my having vetted the petition-signatures; despite multiple entreaties [and the provision of helpful hyperlinks], spoon-feeding you has failed to prompt you to have documented your claim.

    Specifically, you write ” I don’t need to go digging back through my March posts, your denials, and the judge’s ruling to see where I was right and you were wrong. Your guy lost.”

    Yes you do, regardless of the mutually-exclusive issue of his not having filed the identical document with both the DoS and the Ethics Commission; otherwise, you are self-demonstrating your hypocrisy.

    2. Guzzardi’s Efforts. After you add a stipulation as to what would constitute appropriate exertions, you conveniently exclude what he did accomplish; the visits to gun shows and farm shows constituted time-consuming campaigning, even if he was not routinely invited to GOP-sponsored events to speak before groups of people.

    3. BHO. As anticipated, your critique was generally either mild or to the LEFT of what he did; polling-data, if sustained, will blow-away any candidate who signs-on with your views [such as on the Illegals].

    4. and 5. Prediction Cowardice. Despite having shot-down your two stated-rationalizations for declining to issue a prediction in the 13th, you adhere to a level of agnosticism that bespeaks the way BHO has constantly allowed himself to be “surprised” when a new scandal breaks [now, virtually weekly].

    6. Double-digit increases in premiums. You asked that I ”Name one,” so consider what BHO created both last year and this year:

    Health Insurance Premiums. “A comprehensive 50-state study has found that insurance premiums will increase under the first year of Obamacare in 45 of 50 states. This finding flies in the face of President Obama’s promise that his health care overhaul would cause premiums “for the typical family” to fall by $2500.”

    htt
    p://townhall.com/tipsheet/kevinglass/2013/10/17
    /study-obamacare-results-in-premium-increase-in-45-states-n1726211

    Some insurance carriers looking for double-digit increases for Affordable Care Act policies

    htt
    p://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014
    /07/some_insurance_carriers_lookin.html

    7. CC’s Conservatism. I requested that you cite any policy of CC that led to the Depression, and you declined; this is not surprising, because you would certainly be hard-pressed to ID any MAJOR policy that was so very defective.

    8. Housing Bubble. You blamed the banks, but you ignored recognizing how the Dems [via the government, mediated by the likes of Barney] pressured the banks [again, starting under Carter].

    9. Economy. So, let’s get this straight; everything that was done has resulted in what The Economist [a leftie-mag] depicted on its cover-story as a sluggish recovery [progressing @ the rate a turtle would set], and all those “investments” [read, “payoffs”] have already borne fruit [such as on energy].

    You asked for specifics on healthcare, which I provided, now, I ask for specifics [if on nothing else, on the benefits of the billions of taxpayer-$ to reward campaign contributors].

    10. Ayn Rand. You attack without providing justification; so typical….

  7. @ DD:

    You continue to stray from the topic-at-hand,and one must assume it’s a purposeful pursuit; ignoring the ad-hominem obfuscation, these are the finalized bullet-points. {Score: “Sklaroff 28, DD 0.”}

    1. Guzzardi’s Petitions. You claim I erred regarding my having vetted the petition-signatures; despite multiple entreaties [and the provision of helpful hyperlinks], spoon-feeding you has failed to prompt you to have documented your claim.

    Specifically, you write ” I don’t need to go digging back through my March posts, your denials, and the judge’s ruling to see where I was right and you were wrong. Your guy lost.”

    Yes you do, regardless of the mutually-exclusive issue of his not having filed the identical document with both the DoS and the Ethics Commission; otherwise, you are self-demonstrating your hypocrisy.

    2. Guzzardi’s Efforts. After you add a stipulation as to what would constitute appropriate exertions, you conveniently exclude what he did accomplish; the visits to gun shows and farm shows constituted time-consuming campaigning, even if he was not routinely invited to GOP-sponsored events to speak before groups of people.

    3. BHO. As anticipated, your critique was generally either mild or to the LEFT of what he did; polling-data, if sustained, will blow-away any candidate who signs-on with your views [such as on the Illegals].

    4. and 5. Prediction Cowardice. Despite having shot-down your two stated-rationalizations for declining to issue a prediction in the 13th, you adhere to a level of agnosticism that bespeaks the way BHO has constantly allowed himself to be “surprised” when a new scandal breaks [now, virtually weekly].

    6. Double-digit increases in premiums. You asked that I ”Name one,” so consider what BHO created both last year and this year:

    Health Insurance Premiums. “A comprehensive 50-state study has found that insurance premiums will increase under the first year of Obamacare in 45 of 50 states. This finding flies in the face of President Obama’s promise that his health care overhaul would cause premiums “for the typical family” to fall by $2500.”

    http://townhall.com/tipsheet/kevinglass/2013/10/17/study-obamacare-results-in-premium-increase-in-45-states-n1726211

    Some insurance carriers looking for double-digit increases for Affordable Care Act policies

    http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/07/some_insurance_carriers_lookin.html

    7. CC’s Conservatism. I requested that you cite any policy of CC that led to the Depression, and you declined; this is not surprising, because you would certainly be hard-pressed to ID any MAJOR policy that was so very defective.

    8. Housing Bubble. You blamed the banks, but you ignored recognizing how the Dems [via the government, mediated by the likes of Barney] pressured the banks [again, starting under Carter].

    9. Economy. So, let’s get this straight; everything that was done has resulted in what The Economist [a leftie-mag] depicted on its cover-story as a sluggish recovery [progressing @ the rate a turtle would set], and all those “investments” [read, “payoffs”] have already borne fruit [such as on energy].

    You asked for specifics on healthcare, which I provided, now, I ask for specifics [if on nothing else, on the benefits of the billions of taxpayer-$ to reward campaign contributors].

    10. Ayn Rand. You attack without providing justification; so typical….

  8. Robert-

    If you had any idea how to keep score, (or understood when you were being made a fool of), you would have realized your 9-0 flipped to 0-9.
    1) You are making plenty of assertions, without documentation (or connection to reality). I don’t need to go digging back through my March posts, your denials, and the judge’s ruling to see where I was right and you were wrong.
    Your guy lost. He’s back to obscurity. Now you are backing another loser, Corbett.
    Please let me know your SuperBowl pick so I can bet on the other side.
    Oh. Wait. You don’t make “predictions”. You just support the wrong side.

    2) “This was but one example of his travels”
    Buzzz. Sorry. Wrong answer.
    You gave only one (lame) example. The fact that it was a gun show, means it doesn’t even count. That wasn’t a campaign or party event. It was an event he showed up at. It’s not like he was invited to speak to a committee or at a county dinner.

    3) Obama?
    The entire “topic” of point #3 was the 13th congressional district, not Obama.
    As for Obama, I’d like to see him call out Boehner and the Republicans for the unpatriotic pr*cks they are.
    I would have liked it if Obama had gotten a bigger stimulus package (but I think $1 trillion was a psychological barrier he couldn’t break through).
    I’d wish he didn’t back up the NSA’s trampling of privacy.
    I’d wish he’d end the immigration stalemate with congress by threatening to pardon all the illegals who were brought over as children.
    I’d like to see him push for a bill for federally funded abortions.
    I’d like to see him use all that illegally collected NSA info to expose the gun lobby.
    While I’d much prefer someone like Elizabeth Warren as President, Obama is a damn sight better than McCain and Romney would have been (as we’d be in a war with Iran now, and the economy would be headed downward).

    4 and 5) You’ve created this false claims/assertion out of thin air that I must make predictions in all races. It simply has no merit or basis.
    Your own reluctance to make predictions on the candidates to do support is far more telling. It means that either you don’t have the courage of your convictions, or you know they are going to lose and you just can’t admit it. Very sad.

    6) “many states are beginning to report double-digit increases in premiums”
    a) Name one.
    b) We were seeing double-digit increases before. The rate of increase in premiums overall has gone down. The CBO is not anecdotal. Neither are the published rate plans for BlueCross. My brother and I both got big savings from our different level plans, while getting equal or better coverage. We were not the only two people who had BlueCross. This applied to everyone with those plans.

    You don’t seem to understand what basic research is. The government can invest in 100 different approaches to solve a problem (energy). The cost of all 100 investments is far smaller than the cost of the problem (fossil fuels). Only one of the 100 needs to yield a solution to recover the entire investment.
    It’s not kick-back to the other 99 (some of which will have solutions as well that may be more applicable to specific problems).

    7) I don’t have time to educate you on the causes of the Great Depression. But, you tried to dodge Coolidge by referring to his actions at the beginning of the decade. He was President from 1924 into 1929. Not the beginning of the decade, but rather the end of it leading right up to the crash.
    While it would be easy to blame your teachers for failing to educate you on the Great Depression and its causes, the Internet provides plenty of information on the subject.

    8) I didn’t “ignore” that faulty mortgages were issued. I put the blame squarely on the banks. They not only issued the bad mortgages, but then lied about it when repackaging them for investments.
    The repeal was part of the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (GLB), also known as the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999. Three Republicans. Not Barney Frank.
    Clinton didn’t push for the deregulation, though I fault him for signing it. I defy you to support your claim that Clinton “pushed” it. The bill got one Dem vote in the Senate, a sure sign that the President didn’t “push” it.

    9) You really don’t understand anything about the economy or the national debt, do you?
    a) Obama inherited TWO expensive wars from Bush that continued to drain/require money long after Bush left office.
    b) The Bush tax cuts were irresponsible and cut into revenue, and continued on during Obama’s presidency, leading to more debt.
    c) Bush crashed the economy and put millions out of work. We were losing 700,000 jobs a month. All these millions of people out of work weren’t earning income to pay taxes. Thus reducing government revenue.
    d) Obama had to implement the stimulus to get the economy running again. That cost money. But, it was an INVESTMENT in roads, bridges, education, job training, etc. Things that will help in the long run.
    e) Bush took a deficit surplus, and instead of using to to pay down the national debt, he turned it into tax cuts for the right and more debt.

    10) I’m adding a 10th point here. You and the other right-winger seem to follow the Ayn Rand – Atlas Shrugged mentality on government, taxes and the economy.
    John Rogers clarifies this as follows:
    “There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged . One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.”

  9. @ DD:

    Rather than providing a running-total, it is concluded that the “score” is now “Sklaroff 18, DD 0.”

    1) There were names I pointed out that were going to be struck. You disagreed with everyone one of them. I got some right. (and the judge erred in letting some through). But, the point was that there were obvious ones that you failed to see because you don’t understand petitions and weren’t going to acknowledge any errors anyway.

    I repeat; you fail to document your assertions, and repeating them only invokes the concept of the Big Lie.

    2) One trip across the state does not constitute “plenty” of work. The Dems had an Lt Gov candidate who visited every single county, prior to petitions. That’s work.

    This was but one example of his travels, noting that he didn’t have a campaign-staff; I’d documented them in real-time [recall, for example, how much fun he said he had @ a gun show west of Wilkes-Barre], so you are manifesting selective-amnesia [again].

    3) You don’t even know what it means to be a party guy. Recognizing that the district is a slam dunk for Dems doesn’t make me a party guy. It was a rather uninteresting district, politically, until the primary, and now it goes back to being uninteresting. It has nothing to do with party being right or wrong.

    You would be hard-pressed to cite any meaningful disagreement with anything BHO has said/done, anywhere, in any of your writings.

    4 and 5) I commented a lot on the positions of the candidates as well as how they conducted their campaigns. I antagonized the crap out of Daylin by criticizing his handling of the false Alan Grayson scandal, as well as his positions on pot legalization. I also criticized Margolies for dodging debates and running on her+Clinton name recognition.
    But, I was far more interested in discussing the issues, as they pertained to overall policy, than in the individual candidates themselves. I wasn’t involved in any of the campaigns, and wasn’t interested in being very involved.
    So, you really are either just making this up or (as usual) have no idea what you are talking about.

    Your critiques are mild, for reasons aforementioned, and your having absented yourself from predicting an outcome remains contradictory to your assertion of a self-image of forthrightness.

    6) You act as though ObamaCare doesn’t help anybody or gets any value for that money. In addition to 12 million uninsured who now have coverage, coverage for people with previous insurance has lowered. I’m saving around $800/year on premiums, and my brother is saving even more. A friend of mine who was previously denied coverage, is now able to get coverage (he’s paying for it himself). The insurance companies had been cheating people for decades and denying them coverage once they got sick.
    $100 billion a year on health coverage helps a lot more people than $100 billion spent on the military. Why don’t I ever hear you talk about halving the military budget? As for solar, it was one company out of hundreds, and it got hurt by China (spending it’s government money) to subsidize cheap solar panels to push US solar companies out of the market. The intent was to then corner the solar market, and raise prices. All the while, short-sighted anti-solar people in the right-wing would be helping China with its goal.
    But, overall, the investment in solar has been good.

    You cite ObamaDon’tCare anecdotes that are belied by the fact that many states are beginning to report double-digit increases in premiums; your claim that Solyndra was isolated is belied by the facts that other companies have enjoyed such kickbacks without providing deliverables that would justify your overall positive [preordained] verdict.

    7) Coolidge was president until March 1929. There was a mini-crash in that month, which was shored up temporarily, by National City Bank providing $25 million in credit. However the rot from Coolidge’s “small-government conservatism” had taken hold. So, while Hoover is associated with the actual crash, it was the policies of Coolidge that he continued that caused it, and prevented it’s resolution.

    You have yet to ID any one policy that led to the crash, and you may wish to run your entries through a grammar-check [for you used “it’s” rather than “its”].

    8) Seriously? You are going to try and pin housing bubble on a comment Barney Frank made in 5/08? The problem was caused by the “market self-regulates” philosophy that has now been so thoroughly debunked that even Alan Greenspan has abandoned it.
    The cause of the 2008 is the direct result of repeal of key pieces the Glass-Steagall and the deregulation that allowed the banks to speculate. This was a republican bill that got far too much Dem support (though in the GOP controlled Senate only one Dem voted for it, and the other 44 opposed it.) Clinton was wrong to have signed it. But, it was embraced under Bush/Cheney who didn’t believe in any oversight, and were too busy cutting taxes on the very rich who were running the market. The derivatives and mortgage-backed securities were utter fraud, perpetrated by the banking/investment industry. But, my point here is that deregulation once again proved a failure. Regulation is a key government function. The market does not self-regulate.

    Deregulation was pushed by Clinton and Barney reassured everyone from his august position [and you failed to note the fact that faulty mortgages were issued], so don’t incessantly [albeit, again, predictably] “blame Bush.”

    9) Since you don’t seem to even understand what you are saying, I can offer only this:
    a) Bush/Cheney created huge deficits by gutting revenue from the rich, and then running two wars by borrowing us into deeper debt [throwing-away $]. b) Obama used deficit spending productively/correctly for stimulating the economy, rebuilding infrastructure, job training, health care, etc. Things that have benefit and lasting value. [investment].

    How can you sport a straight-face attacking Bush-’43 for a deficit that has been dwafted annually by BHO? And how can you mischaracterize the stimulus as having been spent on infrastructure when it mostly went to meaningless [and often union-dominated] payments [when even BHO admitted that he was mistaken when he thought so many projects were “shovel-ready’]?

    If it is at all possible anatomically, one would have to conclude that you “write with forked tongue.”

  10. Robert-
    What’s the rent like in your fantasy world? It must make it easier to score yourself “victories” when you don’t even understand the words you are using.

    1) There were names I pointed out that were going to be struck. You disagreed with everyone one of them. I got some right. (and the judge erred in letting some through). But, the point was that there were obvious ones that you failed to see because you don’t understand petitions and weren’t going to acknowledge any errors anyway.

    2) One trip across the state does not constitute “plenty” of work. The Dems had an Lt Gov candidate who visited every single county, prior to petitions. That’s work.

    3) You don’t even know what it means to be a party guy. Recognizing that the district is a slam dunk for Dems doesn’t make me a party guy. It was a rather uninteresting district, politically, until the primary, and now it goes back to being uninteresting. It has nothing to do with party being right or wrong.

    4 and 5) I commented a lot on the positions of the candidates as well as how they conducted their campaigns. I antagonized the crap out of Daylin by criticizing his handling of the false Alan Grayson scandal, as well as his positions on pot legalization. I also criticized Margolies for dodging debates and running on her+Clinton name recognition.
    But, I was far more interested in discussing the issues, as they pertained to overall policy, than in the individual candidates themselves. I wasn’t involved in any of the campaigns, and wasn’t interested in being very involved.
    So, you really are either just making this up or (as usual) have no idea what you are talking about.

    6) You act as though ObamaCare doesn’t help anybody or gets any value for that money. In addition to 12 million uninsured who now have coverage, coverage for people with previous insurance has lowered. I’m saving around $800/year on premiums, and my brother is saving even more. A friend of mine who was previously denied coverage, is now able to get coverage (he’s paying for it himself). The insurance companies had been cheating people for decades and denying them coverage once they got sick.
    $100 billion a year on health coverage helps a lot more people than $100 billion spent on the military. Why don’t I ever hear you talk about halving the military budget?
    As for solar, it was one company out of hundreds, and it got hurt by China (spending it’s government money) to subsidize cheap solar panels to push US solar companies out of the market. The intent was to then corner the solar market, and raise prices. All the while, short-sighted anti-solar people in the right-wing would be helping China with its goal.
    But, overall, the investment in solar has been good.

    7) Coolidge was president until March 1929. There was a mini-crash in that month, which was shored up temporarily, by National City Bank providing $25 million in credit. However the rot from Coolidge’s “small-government conservatism” had taken hold. So, while Hoover is associated with the actual crash, it was the policies of Coolidge that he continued that caused it, and prevented it’s resolution.

    8) Seriously? You are going to try and pin housing bubble on a comment Barney Frank made in 5/08?
    The problem was caused by the “market self-regulates” philosophy that has now been so thoroughly debunked that even Alan Greenspan has abandoned it.
    The cause of the 2008 is the direct result of repeal of key pieces the Glass-Steagall and the deregulation that allowed the banks to speculate. This was a republican bill that got far too much Dem support (though in the GOP controlled Senate only one Dem voted for it, and the other 44 opposed it.) Clinton was wrong to have signed it.
    But, it was embraced under Bush/Cheney who didn’t believe in any oversight, and were too busy cutting taxes on the very rich who were running the market. The derivatives and mortgage-backed securities were utter fraud, perpetrated by the banking/investment industry.
    But, my point here is that deregulation once again proved a failure. Regulation is a key government function. The market does not self-regulate.

    9) Since you don’t seem to even understand what you are saying, I can offer only this:
    a) Bush/Cheney created huge deficits by gutting revenue from the rich, and then running two wars by borrowing us into deeper debt.
    b) Obama used deficit spending productively/correctly for stimulating the economy, rebuilding infrastructure, job training, health care, etc. Things that have benefit and lasting value.

    case A just throws money away. case B is investment.

  11. If Wolf or any or liberal Democrat gets elected watch your taxes skyrocket. While Corbett has not done the best remember Rendell and his anti business policies!

  12. @ DD [more parsing]:

    “I analyzed a sampling. Saw names and addresses that didn’t match the voter file, and pointed that out.”

    You have failed to prove your assertion that there was substantive [or even any] discordance between my overnight/instant analysis [culminating prior monitoring/vetting] of the petitions] and that of the Commonwealth Court.

    {Score: Sklaroff 1, DD 0}

    “I didn’t need to waste time looking at all the petitions because, even if Guzzardi got on the ballot, he wasn’t going to raise money, do any work, or beat Corbett. He was irrelevant before petitions even started.”

    To whatever degree he was going to engage in $-raising or beat Corbett, he had already done PLENTY of work [recall my contemporaneous references to his “West Coast (of PA) Road-Trip], so you can’t claim he wasn’t going to ANY work.

    {Score: Sklaroff 2, DD 0}

    “Actually, I barely knew the players. I did know Daylin, because he had been my state senator. But, Val was new to the scene. Boyle is a young guy and hadn’t been around that long. And, Margolies was yesterday’s news and left politics before I got involved, but had some name recognition and the Clinton connection. I’d never been involved with the 13th previously, as it was Schwartz’s district and an easy Dem win.”

    Here, you reveal yourself as a party-guy, notwithstanding the qualities of the candidates and/or whether the party can be wrong in any one instance; this posture contrasts dramatically with mine [on both counts] and impugns [solely] your credibility.

    {Score: Sklaroff 3, DD 0}

    “So, my only interest was in the positions of the candidates. But, I had no idea about their ground and field operations, and no close friends/political-operatives/confidants in the district with reliable information.”

    You admit to having had an interest in the candidates’ positions, and yet chose not to weigh-in [even to express a preference in any given realm]; thus, you abdicated your self-proclaimed role as a seasoned-pol [probably because you didn’t want to risk antagonizing any potential winner, despite the consensus view that the race was BB’s to lose].

    {Score: Sklaroff 4, DD 0}

    “It wasn’t even a race I cared that much about, because it was going to a Dem in November anyway, and I didn’t like the way some of the candidates handled themselves.”

    Even subsequently, you have failed to share any modicum of critique of any one of them, notwithstanding your belated confession of displeasure with “some” of them; share with an avidly/eager public, please, what you know so that the ignorant/unwashed can learn @ your feet.

    {Score: Sklaroff 5, DD 0}

    “But, you really aren’t for “smaller” government, you are for removing essential parts of government that you just don’t happen to like or understand.”

    Your disease prompts you to misapprehend and, notably, fail to cite examples; to the contrary, for example, I want to save ~$1 Trillion over the next decade by trashing ObamaDon’tCare, for this is hardly anything “essential” that is difficult for anyone to “misunderstand” [and we could add all the Dept. of Energy grants to solar-power insiders as an example of BHO’s largess … “choosing winners/losers” … @ the expense of The Forgotten Taxpayer].

    {Score: Sklaroff 6, DD 0}

    “Calvin Coolidge’s laissez-faire attitude was a contributing factor to the Great Depression and 1929 stock market crash. The government should “do nothing” philosophy was adhered to by Hoover, worsening the depression.”

    I referenced only CC, so you cannot segue via HH to impugn a smaller-government Conservative [acting forthrightly @ the beginning of the decade] for the Depression and sequellae [that were triggered @ the end of the decade].

    {Score: Sklaroff 7, DD 0}

    “So, your calles [sic] for ‘smaller government’ ignore our recent recession and stock market crash resulting from Bush’s attempts to implement that same philosophy.”

    Inasmuch as most independent economists trace the events of ’08 to the Housing bubble [which was initiated under Carter and expended by Clinton and BHO, despite efforts by Reagan and Bush-’41/’43], you cannot reasonably impugn the R’s; indeed, recall Barney’s famous clips from 5/08 claiming the “essentials” in that particular realm were OK [a quote for which McCain was impugned, four months hence].

    {Score: Sklaroff 8, DD 0}

    “So, these two examples should be proof enough for anyone, even you, that the smaller government philosophy (as implemented by conservatives) crashes economies.”

    To the contrary, your having allowed yourself to have become infested with Dem-deceit has corrupted your capacity to provide clarity that cannot be punctured so easily by merely citing a ‘graph-by-‘graph set of errata.

    {Score: Sklaroff 9, DD 0}

    *

    Conclusion: Sklaroff shuts-out DD.

  13. Robert-
    Well. I analyzed a sampling. Saw names and addresses that didn’t match the voter file, and pointed that out.

    I didn’t need to waste time looking at all the petitions because, even if Guzzardi got on the ballot, he wasn’t going to raise money, do any work, or beat Corbett. He was irrelevant before petitions even started.

    Actually, I barely knew the players. I did know Daylin, because he had been my state senator. But, Val was new to the scene. Boyle is a young guy and hadn’t been around that long. And, Margolies was yesterday’s news and left politics before I got involved, but had some name recognition and the Clinton connection. I’d never been involved with the 13th previously, as it was Schwartz’s district and an easy Dem win.
    So, my only interest was in the positions of the candidates. But, I had no idea about their ground and field operations, and no close friends/political-operatives/confidants in the district with reliable information.

    It wasn’t even a race I cared that much about, because it was going to a Dem in November anyway, and I didn’t like the way some of the candidates handled themselves.

    But, you really aren’t for “smaller” government, you are for removing essential parts of government that you just don’t happen to like or understand.

    Calvin Coolidge’s laissez-faire attitude was a contributing factor to the Great Depression and 1929 stock market crash. The government should “do nothing” philosophy was adhered to by Hoover, worsening the depression.

    So, your calles for “smaller government” ignore our recent recession and stock market crash resulting from Bush’s attempts to implement that same philosophy.

    So, these two examples should be proof enough for anyone, even you, that the smaller government philosophy (as implemented by conservatives) crashes economies.

  14. @ DD [with comments interspersed]:

    “The court removed several of the signatures I had identified as invalid, that you had argued would pass muster. Then you ignored those, and pointed to a few I thought were bad, that did pass (and ignored the ones I got right), to pretend I didn’t get any right.”

    My analysis was based solely upon publicly-available info and, thus, was subject to provision of additional data, subsequently; my key-prediction was that none of the four disputed counties would fall below 100 [Guzzardi needed only two]; you have every opportunity to disprove this assertion by following the previously-provided hyperlink [leading to the raw-data] and the text of the Commonwealth Court decision.

    “I didn’t make a prediction on the 13th because there wasn’t enough information to make a prediction. There was not a single poll to interpret. I didn’t live in the district. Each candidate had a completely different set of strengths. I don’t have to make a prediction on everything (and you are so ball-less that you can’t make a prediction on whether the Sun will rise in the morning).”

    As a committed-Dem, surely you knew the players…and Congress-People affect everyone; thus, your rationalizations for evasion fall flat. [In my case, I channel the predictions of others after having vetted them, such as maintaining hope that the Senate will flip…which is predicted with 87% assurance by the WaPo.]

    “You spout nothing but tea-party right-wing nonsense about taxes that has been debunked by every economic failure of such policies.”

    I am critiquing everyone, although thematically pushing the concept of smaller government; these concepts have not been debunked [and note their success under Coolidge].

    “So, you sound like a guy with a lot of money who doesn’t want to pay a fair share of taxes, so you come up with magical economic BS to justify your own greed and lack of empathy, community, patriotism, etc.”

    Your attempt @ mind-reading reveals only your prejudices…mirroring those of the POTUS; note his falling polling-#’s and ask yourself whether you are in the process of accompanying him along the self-marginalization route to another “shellacking.”

  15. Robert-

    The court removed several of the signatures I had identified as invalid, that you had argued would pass muster. Then you ignored those, and pointed to a few I thought were bad, that did pass (and ignored the ones I got right), to pretend I didn’t get any right.

    I didn’t make a prediction on the 13th because there wasn’t enough information to make a prediction. There was not a single poll to interpret. I didn’t live in the district. Each candidate had a completely different set of strengths.
    I don’t have to make a prediction on everything (and you are so ball-less that you can’t make a prediction on whether the Sun will rise in the morning).

    You spout nothing but tea-party right-wing nonsense about taxes that has been debunked by every economic failure of such policies.

    So, you sound like a guy with a lot of money who doesn’t want to pay a fair share of taxes, so you come up with magical economic BS to justify your own greed and lack of empathy, community, patriotism, etc.

  16. @ DD:

    Every sentence is either an inference on your part or flat-out erroneous [such as your claims regarding my signature-analysis, where you have failed to ID any specific error on my part that was validated by Commonwealth Court].

    Let us not forget your having avoided issuing a prediction regarding the 13th Dem-Primary; you comments are so overtly politicized [so very predictable, so faithful to Dem-policy, so close to Lib talking-points] that they are drained of any potential impact.

  17. tony camposo how dare you say I aint a reel person I am a reel person and I know lots bout what goin on in state guvenmint. and I know people who work in harsburg so I know what I taking about when I say guvenor corbitt will proly win in a land slide.

  18. Robert-
    You are not in the :prediction”-business”, instead you prefer the “being wrong on every issue” business. And, technically, you really are making “predictions” because you claim all your ridiculous tax cuts will be good for PA.

    Backing of candidates that have no chance at all, while pretending they do, is also a form of prediction.

    You write: “I vetted the quality of his signatures”

    Now, some of the ones you “vetted” were thrown out (including ones I has identified as invalid). A few others that should have been invalid were erroneously allowed by the court (where a stricter judge would not have allowed them). So, the achieving the signature count threshold was due to judicial error on your behalf, rather than due to actually having enough valid signatures.

    But, Guzzardi was never anything more than a crank candidate.

    Tony-
    You are correct. Nate Silver was 50 for 50 in predicting 2012 presidential election.

  19. 1. The Republican attack on 538 was so predictable. They also attacked Nate Silver throughout 2012 when he consistently predicted Obama’s re-election. If memory serves, Nate Silver correctly predicted the presidential outcome in every battleground state.

    2. Chris Martinez is not a real person people. Stop engaging him. Even with $1 billion in Republican education cuts, no Pennsylvanian can be that uneducated.

  20. I would pay good money to watch a political debate between PAINDY1 and Chris Martinez. It would be like watching retards scuffling.

    Chris: Guvinr Corbit will beat John Wolf cuz I like ham and eggs and ice cream.

    PAINDY1: I think you mean ACTING GOVERNOR BRABENDER and the UPMC crew.

  21. @ Robbie and DD:

    Search my many postings on this website [or ask anyone with whom I spoke during this calendar year] and you will discover that I made only one assertion regarding Guzzardi’s candidacy; notwithstanding your faulty recollections.

    I vetted the quality of his signatures and, unless you’re a historical revisionist, you will recall that this facet of his filing was approved by Commonwealth Court; I was not present when he filed everything else.

    Unlike DD, I’m not in the “prediction”-business, but you may recall that his not having filed simultaneously with the Ethics Commission was a “victimless-crime” because the identical data had already been uploaded onto the DoS’s website [for the world to see]; that’s why I felt he shudda sued in Federal Court [because the fact that the DoS accepted his papers satisfied what the “reasonable person” would assume to have achieved closure.

  22. john wolfe the guy running for gunevnor of penna has a collage degree, a ph.d. and a legal degree and so do guvenor corbitt

  23. Oddsmakers makes a valid point, especially since there are 32 people running for Governor in PA.

  24. Sklaroff – I hope you know far more about medicine than you know about politics. I imagine so, because if you do know as little about medicine as you do about politics, there would be a law to prohibit you from playing the game “Operation” or even reading WebMD. That proposal probably would receive a unanimous bipartisan vote.

    When it comes to politics, the next time you get something right will be the first time. Ask Bob Guzzardi. You did a great job predicting Guzzardi’s success in staying on the ballot and doing well in the GOP primary.

    For the sake of your patients or anybody who listens to you about medicine, I do hope you know know more about that subject. For the sake of the rest of the world, please stick to medicine and leave politics alone.

  25. “Silver” lining is that the margin dropped from 22% to 18.7%; if that trend continues….

  26. Looks like Corbett’s only got about twice the chance as Germany winning the WorldCup. Never happen.

  27. There is not a single poll that shows Tom Corbett winning in November. There are many reasons for this and they all point to one result: Tom Corbett is a November loser.

    Divided Government has a lot of merit. Divided government is part of our system of checks and balances that maintain the liberty, economic and personal, of individual citizens.

    Republicans need to look forward to 2016 and 2018.

  28. I’m so happy to see the people of Brazil rewarded with the World Cup for putting on such a great tournament. When 538 made them a lock for the cup I bet the house. Now my bookie keeps leaving me voice messages I’m assuming so that we can arrange where he can give me all that money, money money!

  29. Micheal and stewvart you aint nice people to say meen stuff about peple. for yur infmatin, guveonor corbitt got support from a nother guvenor, bill gindell from lousana, and that meens our guveonor is gonna win.

  30. One of soon to be elected Governor Wolf’s first priorities should be a remedial spelling and grammar initiative…I nominate Chris Martinez for the program.

  31. davis daino you probly work for john wolfe becuz you aint never say nothin bad bout him and u alweys are bad mouting guvenor corbit

  32. Acting governor Brabender: How much do I need to donate or raise to get a going away gift from a LAME DUCK???

  33. Ascribing Corbett’s woes to the Penn State fiasco is seriously uninformed. Corbett EARNED voters’ animus, with his incompetence, his own “outlandish” statements, and his corrupt gifts to the frackers. Is there any segment of the voting population that actually thinks he is a good governor? Even his “supporters” only do so because they fear a Democrat in the office, not because they think Corbett did well.

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